Short-Term Gyrations In The U.S. Treasury Bill Market Imply Negative 0.005% T-Bill Rates On December 31, 2014
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Sat Nov 15, 4:29AM CST
Short-term Treasury bill rates twisted up 0.01% to reach 0.05% at 1 month and down 0.01% to 0.02% at 3 months this week. The result is an implied path for T-bill rates that has the 1-month rate at MINUS 0.005% on December 31, 2014. Negative rates are...
BOND: 109.22 (+0.08), NUV: 9.52 (unch), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), REM: 12.53 (+0.02), SHY: 84.67 (-0.01), BND: 82.38 (+0.12), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
High Yield Attractive as Rates Creep Higher Says Nuveen's Rodriguez
at The Street - Mon Nov 10, 4:27PM CST
Fixed income investors should expect single digit returns in 2015 as rates drift higher, said Tony Rodriguez, co-head of fixed income for Nuveen Asset Management.
JNK: 39.71 (-0.08), HYG: 91.26 (-0.18), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24)
U.S. flat, but Europe slides along with bond yields; gold bounces
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Nov 07, 10:47AM CST
EWG: 27.65 (+0.66), FEZ: 38.43 (+0.73), GLD: 115.05 (+1.00), EWQ: 25.81 (+0.44), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24)
Treasury Curve Twists Again, With Forward T-Bill Rates Peaking At 3.28% In 2021
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Nov 06, 11:14PM CST
BOND: 109.22 (+0.08), NUV: 9.52 (unch), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), REM: 12.53 (+0.02), SHY: 84.67 (-0.01), BND: 82.38 (+0.12), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
New Lessons In Bond Investing: Why Yields Are Going Lower And What Investors Should Do
Vipin Sahijwani - Seeking Alpha - Wed Nov 05, 4:43PM CST
The Fed's recent announcement of the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the stock market marking recent highs would lead one to believe that withdrawing such massive stimulus would cause bond yields to go up. So why are they going down? We...
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TAPR: 40.30 (-0.67), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), GOVT: 25.03 (+0.04), PLW: 32.00 (+0.07), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
BOJ Marks The Beginning Of The End For Central Banks
Harold L. Vogel, CFA - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Nov 05, 12:24PM CST
VXX: 28.10 (-0.50), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24)
Treasury Curve Twists Sharply This Week, With Forward T-Bill Rates Peaking At 3.25% In 2021
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Oct 31, 8:30PM CDT
Forward 1-month T-bill rates twisted this week, rising 0.16% in 2016 and dropping 0.18% in 2024. The twist in implied forward 1-month Treasury bill rates stems from an increase of 0.06% to 0.08% in current U.S. Treasury yields in the 2 to 7 year...
NUV: 9.52 (unch), BOND: 109.22 (+0.08), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), REM: 12.53 (+0.02), SHY: 84.67 (-0.01), BND: 82.38 (+0.12), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Making Sense Of The Bond Market
Saturna Capital - Seeking Alpha - Tue Oct 28, 1:46PM CDT
[Originally published September, 2014] By Phelps Mcllvaine, Bond Portfolio Manager A persistent reduction in the US inflation rate and well-anchored inflation expectations continue to contradict the common understanding that interest rates have...
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), TBX: 30.89 (-0.09), DFVS: 35.81 (-0.19), TBZ: 30.11 (-0.02), DFVL: 61.39 (+0.42), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), ITE: 59.99 (+0.04), TYO: 19.71 (-0.08), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), SCHR: 53.47 (+0.08), GSY: 50.14 (unch), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), FIVZ: 79.97 (+0.07), VGIT: 64.30 (+0.03), DTYL: 74.80 (-1.08), IEI: 122.39 (+0.09), TYD: 42.87 (+0.74), PST: 25.46 (-0.07), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), UST: 54.88 (+0.15), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), DTYS: 23.90 (-0.14), TYNS: 31.33 (-0.06), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Time To Hedge Your Bond Bets?
Brad Zigler - Seeking Alpha - Tue Oct 28, 11:10AM CDT
Something's afoot with interest rates. At least that's what option market makers are telling us. Take a look at the expense trend for calls and puts on 10-year Treasury futures. If you compare the volatility assumption embedded in T-note options,...
IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24)
Liquidity squeeze in Treasurys
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Mon Oct 27, 12:09PM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TAPR: 40.30 (-0.67), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), GOVT: 25.03 (+0.04), PLW: 32.00 (+0.07), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
A Decade Of Rising T-Bill Rates Implied By Current Treasury Yields With No Decline In Sight
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Oct 24, 12:09AM CDT
BOND: 109.22 (+0.08), NUV: 9.52 (unch), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), REM: 12.53 (+0.02), SHY: 84.67 (-0.01), BND: 82.38 (+0.12), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Gundlach: Rates not going anywhere; oil headed lower
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Oct 22, 9:30PM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), OLO: 11.45 (+0.05), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), BNO: 30.86 (-0.29), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), CRUD: 34.80 (+0.40), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), DNO: 40.75 (+0.38), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), OIL: 18.09 (-0.33), OLEM: 34.37 (unch), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), USO: 28.20 (-0.48), TWTI: 20.49 (unch), UCO: 20.38 (-0.67), DTO: 50.09 (+1.28), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), UWTI: 14.52 (-0.71), SCO: 43.80 (+1.33), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), SZO: 44.95 (-0.99), TAPR: 40.30 (-0.67), DBO: 22.20 (-0.37), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), DWTI: 52.17 (+2.25), USL: 35.36 (-0.45), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47), PLW: 32.00 (+0.07), GOVT: 25.03 (+0.04)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Down 10.0% Since SmarTrend Downtrend Call (TBT)
Comtex SmarTrend(R) - Wed Oct 22, 5:15PM CDT
SmarTrend identified a Downtrend for ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:TBT) on September 23rd, 2014 at $57.51. In approximately 4 weeks, ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury has returned 10.01% as of today's recent price of $51.75.
TBT: 52.40 (-0.24)
What The Plunge In U.S. Treasury Yields Means For The Next 10 Years
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Oct 16, 7:44PM CDT
Forward 1-month T-bill rates fell again this week, dropping sharply at all but the very shortest maturities. The fall in implied forward 1-month Treasury bill rates stems from a decrease of 0.11% to 0.20% in current U.S. Treasury yields in the 2- to...
NUV: 9.52 (unch), BOND: 109.22 (+0.08), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), REM: 12.53 (+0.02), SHY: 84.67 (-0.01), BND: 82.38 (+0.12), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Mantra: Interest Rates Have To Rise
David Merkel, CFA - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Oct 16, 2:34PM CDT
I thought of structuring this post like a fictional story, but I couldn't figure out how to make it good enough for publication. Well, truth is often stranger than fiction, so have a look at this Bloomberg article pointing at a 37% loss in the...
ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Treasurys little-changed in volatile session
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Oct 16, 10:48AM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
10-year Treasury yield bounces all the way back to 2.15%
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Oct 15, 2:46PM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47)
Panic buying in Treasurys - 10-year yield plunges to 2%
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Oct 15, 8:35AM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), TBX: 30.89 (-0.09), DFVS: 35.81 (-0.19), DFVL: 61.39 (+0.42), TBZ: 30.11 (-0.02), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), ITE: 59.99 (+0.04), TYO: 19.71 (-0.08), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), SCHR: 53.47 (+0.08), GSY: 50.14 (unch), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), FIVZ: 79.97 (+0.07), VGIT: 64.30 (+0.03), DTYL: 74.80 (-1.08), IEI: 122.39 (+0.09), TYD: 42.87 (+0.74), PST: 25.46 (-0.07), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), UST: 54.88 (+0.15), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), DTYS: 23.90 (-0.14), TYNS: 31.33 (-0.06), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), TAPR: 40.30 (-0.67), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47), PLW: 32.00 (+0.07), GOVT: 25.03 (+0.04)
Treasury yields tumble after weak data; S&P futures down 1%
Seeking Alpha - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Oct 15, 7:41AM CDT
TLH: 132.64 (+0.23), TBX: 30.89 (-0.09), DFVS: 35.81 (-0.19), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TBZ: 30.11 (-0.02), DFVL: 61.39 (+0.42), TLO: 69.33 (+0.21), UBT: 72.13 (+0.48), SPLX: 30.67 (+0.29), TLT: 119.52 (+0.33), TBT: 52.40 (-0.24), DLBS: 24.44 (-0.20), ZROZ: 109.50 (+0.18), SPXU: 39.17 (-0.67), SPY: 205.55 (+1.18), TYO: 19.71 (-0.08), ITE: 59.99 (+0.04), TTT: 50.57 (-0.35), GSY: 50.14 (unch), SCHR: 53.47 (+0.08), SPXL: 87.13 (+1.50), TYBS: 24.46 (-0.04), SPYG: 96.77 (+0.72), IEI: 122.39 (+0.09), DTYL: 74.80 (-1.08), RWL: 40.36 (+0.20), TYD: 42.87 (+0.74), RSP: 79.49 (+0.50), IEF: 105.10 (+0.12), PST: 25.46 (-0.07), EDV: 114.58 (+0.26), DTYS: 23.90 (-0.14), IVV: 206.91 (+1.25), TYNS: 31.33 (-0.06), TMV: 38.31 (-0.27), IVW: 111.84 (+0.80), SPYV: 101.45 (+0.33), SBND: 5.90 (-0.06), TBF: 26.76 (-0.06), SDS: 22.43 (-0.26), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.09), TMF: 73.04 (+0.47), VOOG: 100.15 (+0.73), UPRO: 131.66 (+2.21), EPS: 71.81 (+0.33), IVE: 93.53 (+0.41), FIVZ: 79.97 (+0.07), VGIT: 64.30 (+0.03), SH: 21.96 (-0.14), UST: 54.88 (+0.15), TENZ: 84.74 (+0.11), SSO: 127.58 (+1.44), RPV: 54.77 (+0.24), LBND: 48.29 (+0.36), VOO: 188.51 (+1.08), BXUB: 201.74 (unch), VOOV: 89.98 (+0.44), RPG: 79.82 (+0.89)
SmarTrend Watching for Potential Rebound in Shares of ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury After 1.29% Loss
Comtex SmarTrend(R) - Tue Oct 14, 4:07PM CDT
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:TBT) traded in a range yesterday that spanned from a low of $50.89 to a high of $51.87. Yesterday, the shares fell 1.3%, which took the trading range below the 3-day low of $51.40 on volume of 6.0 million shares. Often times after large one-day declines, short-term traders may play for some degree of mean reversion.
TBT: 52.40 (-0.24)