An Unkind Bond Unwind
The Nattering Naybob - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Nov 13, 1:57PM CST
HYG: 91.45 (-0.46), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), UUPT: 24.41 (-0.16), FXY: 83.70 (-0.37), UUP: 23.25 (-0.06), JNK: 39.86 (-0.13), HY: 78.23 (+1.05), IMO: 48.00 (+0.39), LQD: 118.51 (+0.15), CORP: 103.11 (+0.08), EMB: 113.25 (-0.09), FXE: 123.43 (+0.48), UDN: 24.61 (+0.08), UDNT: 13.25 (+0.17), BKF: 37.24 (+0.37)
Is the Fed Using a 1937 Monetary Debacle to Keep Rates Low?
at The Street - Thu Nov 13, 5:00AM CST
The Fed appears to be backing away from raising the benchmark federal funds rate for the first time in six years. And its reason may be suspect.
GS: 189.98 (-0.26), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58)
Dudley, Goldman Sachs And The 1937 Myth
Linus Wilson - Seeking Alpha - Wed Nov 12, 10:11AM CST
A recent Bloomberg story argued that the Fed should worry about tightening too soon because it does not want to replay 1937. Are they joking! Today is nothing like 1937. Today the unemployment rate is at 5.8% . In 1937, unemployment rate was ...
IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58)
Mid-Term Election Impacts On The Market Revisited
Bret Jensen - at Seeking Alpha - Tue Nov 11, 10:27AM CST
SPY: 204.24 (+0.05), QQQ: 103.22 (+0.32), MDT: 68.95 (-0.43), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), DIA: 176.35 (-0.09), STJ: 64.99 (-0.72), IWM: 116.69 (-0.21), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58)
A Stronger U.S. Economy Takes A Toll On Bonds
James Picerno - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Nov 07, 12:56PM CST
This week’s encouraging numbers for the US labor market ( jobless claims and ADP’s estimate of private-sector jobs ) suggest that today’s official report on payrolls from Washington will deliver upbeat macro news as well. But...
JNK: 39.86 (-0.13), TIP: 113.20 (+0.29), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), AGG: 109.86 (+0.10), CLY: 60.21 (+0.07), SHY: 84.69 (+0.04), CIU: 109.66 (+0.17), CSJ: 105.28 (+0.04), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58)
Treasury Curve Twists Again, With Forward T-Bill Rates Peaking At 3.28% In 2021
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Nov 06, 11:14PM CST
BOND: 109.19 (+0.15), NUV: 9.55 (-0.05), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), REM: 12.48 (+0.02), SHY: 84.69 (+0.04), BND: 82.26 (+0.02), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58), TBT: 52.47 (-0.49), TMV: 38.37 (-0.52), TMF: 72.95 (+1.00)
Pause For A Cause: A 3-Month Outlook On The S&P 500 And U.S. 10-Year Yield
Cerebro1 - at Seeking Alpha - Wed Nov 05, 2:44PM CST
SPY: 204.24 (+0.05), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), XLY: 69.28 (+0.27), XLK: 41.61 (+0.29), XLI: 56.31 (+0.07), XLU: 44.94 (-0.19), XLF: 24.06 (-0.08), XLV: 67.25 (-0.56)
Forget About Democrats And Republicans, It's The Doves And Hawks That Move Markets
Linus Wilson - Seeking Alpha - Tue Nov 04, 2:17PM CST
The November 4, 2014, election is not the most important vote that matters to investors looking to 2015. Investors should worry less about whether the Republicans control the Senate than if the hawks take over the Federal Reserve. The voting in at...
VOO: 187.33 (+0.07), SPY: 204.24 (+0.05), BOND: 109.19 (+0.15), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), DTUS: 35.64 (-0.08), IVV: 205.58 (+0.09), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58)
The Relay Race Of Retirement Investing
Ron Sanders - at Seeking Alpha - Mon Nov 03, 8:55PM CST
The moment of highest risk in a relay race is when the baton is being passed from one runner to the next. No matter how good the athletes are, no matter how far ahead the leading team is after the first or second runner, there’s always a risk...
FRI: 21.46 (-0.20), IGF: 42.69 (+0.01), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), WREI: 43.94 (-0.22), TOLZ: 44.26 (-1.20), RWR: 87.74 (-0.72), GII: 49.12 (+0.17), FTY: 45.74 (-0.21), ICF: 93.17 (-0.74), SCHH: 37.50 (-0.28), DRV: 30.38 (+0.72), FLM: 45.02 (-0.03), REK: 21.33 (+0.13), NFRA: 45.79 (+0.02), PSR: 71.07 (unch), IYR: 74.87 (-0.46), DRN: 69.35 (-1.77), IWM: 116.69 (-0.21), URE: 98.97 (-1.27), VNQ: 78.45 (-0.65), KBWY: 33.51 (-0.45), SRS: 13.81 (+0.18)
The Next Big Short Strategy: Rise And Fall Of Fixed Income ETFs
Macro Strategist - at Seeking Alpha - Mon Nov 03, 10:11AM CST
VCIT: 86.18 (+0.09), SJNK: 29.64 (-0.07), HYEM: 24.88 (-0.03), VCSH: 79.97 (+0.11), HYLD: 47.29 (+0.05), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58), JNK: 39.86 (-0.13), HYS: 104.00 (-0.28), SCHO: 50.64 (+0.01), EMB: 113.25 (-0.09), EMLC: 22.43 (+0.02), HYG: 91.45 (-0.46), IEI: 122.36 (+0.13), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), UST: 54.86 (+0.22), PHB: 19.09 (-0.08), VCLT: 90.12 (+0.01), TMV: 38.37 (-0.52), LEMB: 47.40 (-0.10), PCY: 28.62 (-0.11), BSJF: 26.51 (-0.02), ELD: 43.80 (unch), LQD: 118.51 (+0.15), SHY: 84.69 (+0.04), BIL: 45.74 (unch), CIU: 109.66 (+0.17), VGSH: 61.02 (+0.01), SHV: 110.27 (unch)
Federal Reserve Stops Printing Money
Rodney Johnson - at Seeking Alpha - Mon Nov 03, 8:58AM CST
The howling can officially end. All the people crazy-mad about the Fed printing money (gold bugs, inflationistas, etc.) can ease their blood pressure and go back to their normal lives. On Wednesday, October 29 the Fed announced that it was no longer...
IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58)
Treasury Curve Twists Sharply This Week, With Forward T-Bill Rates Peaking At 3.25% In 2021
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Oct 31, 8:30PM CDT
Forward 1-month T-bill rates twisted this week, rising 0.16% in 2016 and dropping 0.18% in 2024. The twist in implied forward 1-month Treasury bill rates stems from an increase of 0.06% to 0.08% in current U.S. Treasury yields in the 2 to 7 year...
NUV: 9.55 (-0.05), BOND: 109.19 (+0.15), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), REM: 12.48 (+0.02), SHY: 84.69 (+0.04), BND: 82.26 (+0.02), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58), TBT: 52.47 (-0.49), TMF: 72.95 (+1.00)
QE3 R.I.P.
Calafia Beach Pundit - Seeking Alpha - Thu Oct 30, 4:41AM CDT
Wednesday the Federal Reserve confirmed what the bond market has been expecting for many months: QE3 has ended, effective this week. What we don't know yet, however, is whether the end of QE3 will lead to another round of economic and financial...
IEI: 122.36 (+0.13), TBX: 30.94 (-0.08), DTYL: 74.80 (-1.08), DFVS: 35.79 (-0.40), TYD: 42.13 (+0.11), TBZ: 30.11 (-0.02), DFVL: 61.39 (+0.42), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), PST: 25.50 (-0.10), SINF: 43.98 (unch), UST: 54.86 (+0.22), DTYS: 23.84 (-0.20), TYNS: 31.33 (-0.06), RINF: 33.18 (+0.05), FINF: 40.59 (+0.10), ITE: 59.91 (-0.02), TYO: 19.63 (-0.22), INFL: 45.00 (unch), GSY: 50.12 (+0.02), SCHR: 53.45 (+0.05), UINF: 30.76 (unch), FIVZ: 79.80 (unch), DEFL: 50.13 (unch), VGIT: 64.35 (+0.08)
Making Sense Of The Bond Market
Saturna Capital - Seeking Alpha - Tue Oct 28, 1:46PM CDT
[Originally published September, 2014] By Phelps Mcllvaine, Bond Portfolio Manager A persistent reduction in the US inflation rate and well-anchored inflation expectations continue to contradict the common understanding that interest rates have...
TLH: 132.64 (+0.41), TBX: 30.94 (-0.08), DFVS: 35.79 (-0.40), TBZ: 30.11 (-0.02), DFVL: 61.39 (+0.42), DLBL: 71.70 (-0.59), TLO: 69.34 (+0.34), UBT: 72.06 (+0.66), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58), TBT: 52.47 (-0.49), DLBS: 24.41 (-0.37), ZROZ: 109.62 (+0.99), ITE: 59.91 (-0.02), TYO: 19.63 (-0.22), TTT: 50.61 (-0.75), SCHR: 53.45 (+0.05), GSY: 50.12 (+0.02), TYBS: 24.56 (-0.09), FIVZ: 79.80 (unch), VGIT: 64.35 (+0.08), DTYL: 74.80 (-1.08), IEI: 122.36 (+0.13), TYD: 42.13 (+0.11), PST: 25.50 (-0.10), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), UST: 54.86 (+0.22), TENZ: 84.70 (+0.10), EDV: 114.90 (+0.98), DTYS: 23.84 (-0.20), TYNS: 31.33 (-0.06), TMV: 38.37 (-0.52), LBND: 47.13 (unch), SBND: 5.89 (-0.06), TBF: 26.78 (-0.13), VGLT: 74.10 (+0.32), TMF: 72.95 (+1.00)
Time To Hedge Your Bond Bets?
Brad Zigler - Seeking Alpha - Tue Oct 28, 11:10AM CDT
Something's afoot with interest rates. At least that's what option market makers are telling us. Take a look at the expense trend for calls and puts on 10-year Treasury futures. If you compare the volatility assumption embedded in T-note options,...
IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), TBT: 52.47 (-0.49)
A Decade Of Rising T-Bill Rates Implied By Current Treasury Yields With No Decline In Sight
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Fri Oct 24, 12:09AM CDT
BOND: 109.19 (+0.15), NUV: 9.55 (-0.05), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), REM: 12.48 (+0.02), SHY: 84.69 (+0.04), BND: 82.26 (+0.02), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58), TMV: 38.37 (-0.52), TBT: 52.47 (-0.49), TMF: 72.95 (+1.00)
Retirees: Are You Investing Like A Public Pension Fund?
Adam Aloisi - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Oct 23, 8:58AM CDT
QQQ: 103.22 (+0.32), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22)
Don't Expect 0% Rates to Last When Fed Sees the Strong Job Market
at The Street - Mon Oct 20, 1:36PM CDT
Bond traders may believe we will never ever see a rate hike, but all the macro data says the Fed will hike rates early in 2015.
VOO: 187.33 (+0.07), SPY: 204.24 (+0.05), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), DTUS: 35.64 (-0.08), IVV: 205.58 (+0.09), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58), DTUL: 60.73 (+0.13)
A 'Smarter' Way Of Reaching For Yield
Cam Hui, CFA - at Seeking Alpha - Sun Oct 19, 1:18PM CDT
In general, I am not in favor of reaching for yield as the practice can entail a high degree of risk that income oriented investors cannot tolerate. I do understand, however, the dilemma facing such investors who need a regular stream of income. For...
HYG: 91.45 (-0.46), IEI: 122.36 (+0.13), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), EMB: 113.25 (-0.09)
What The Plunge In U.S. Treasury Yields Means For The Next 10 Years
Donald van Deventer - at Seeking Alpha - Thu Oct 16, 7:44PM CDT
Forward 1-month T-bill rates fell again this week, dropping sharply at all but the very shortest maturities. The fall in implied forward 1-month Treasury bill rates stems from a decrease of 0.11% to 0.20% in current U.S. Treasury yields in the 2- to...
NUV: 9.55 (-0.05), BOND: 109.19 (+0.15), IEF: 105.10 (+0.22), REM: 12.48 (+0.02), SHY: 84.69 (+0.04), BND: 82.26 (+0.02), TLT: 119.49 (+0.58), TBT: 52.47 (-0.49), TMV: 38.37 (-0.52), TMF: 72.95 (+1.00)