Here's some interesting numbers to chew over. The
Post# of 76
Posted On: 09/02/2014 12:35:34 PM
Here's some interesting numbers to chew over. The bonds are worth over $2bn with the 5.5% interest payments. Ok, we all agree that.
So, lets suppose that Sid sells the bonds through Lionsgate and regardless of how much Lionsgate actually sell the bonds for, say PFNO ends up with $1bn in the bank - PURE cash in the bank.
How high a multiple of that figure of $1bn do you think the market capitalisation of the company should be? What do you think the price/earnings ratio should be? A reasonable figure would easily be a price/earnings ratio of 10. That would make the share price a lot higher than 50 cents just on balance sheet fundamentals.
You see when you start looking at it that way four times cash in the bank is an extremely conservative figure. There could be a run on the shares VERY quickly even with that low a settlement of $1bn.
For example all kinds of interested parties might come in and suddenly start buying chunks of shares in a possible attempt to take control of the company. If the bonds are sold and the share price has stayed where it is, anyone can easily come in and try to buy a controlling interest.
I'm not sure if the voting rights are maybe held in some kind of different class of shares but it would be a wise idea for Sidney to do something to stop any possible hostile takeover. Alternatively, I sincerely hope that Sidney owns at least a few hundred million shares so no matter what happens he can benefit hugely when the bonds are monetised either by sale or by ING. That will be a juat reward for him for not giving up over all these years.
ING in my view WILL be forced to negotiate an out of court settlement. All that needs to happen is the judge needs to sit down and read La Porte's (who is a world expert)report on the validity of the bonds.
Having seen a picture posted here of the bonds, I'd say its EXTREMELY unlikely indeed that the bonds are fake. To have a printing press that can overlay multiple colours to that precision costs millions. That kind of facility is going to be guarded day and night - because it will be located somewhere like a bank note manufacturing company. So, suddenly one night while the boss was out a group of guys walked into the bank note printing facility, printed off a whole series of fake bonds, walked back out and nobody noticed?
That's why it's just not feasible that the bonds are fake, on the most simple analysis.
So, lets suppose that Sid sells the bonds through Lionsgate and regardless of how much Lionsgate actually sell the bonds for, say PFNO ends up with $1bn in the bank - PURE cash in the bank.
How high a multiple of that figure of $1bn do you think the market capitalisation of the company should be? What do you think the price/earnings ratio should be? A reasonable figure would easily be a price/earnings ratio of 10. That would make the share price a lot higher than 50 cents just on balance sheet fundamentals.
You see when you start looking at it that way four times cash in the bank is an extremely conservative figure. There could be a run on the shares VERY quickly even with that low a settlement of $1bn.
For example all kinds of interested parties might come in and suddenly start buying chunks of shares in a possible attempt to take control of the company. If the bonds are sold and the share price has stayed where it is, anyone can easily come in and try to buy a controlling interest.
I'm not sure if the voting rights are maybe held in some kind of different class of shares but it would be a wise idea for Sidney to do something to stop any possible hostile takeover. Alternatively, I sincerely hope that Sidney owns at least a few hundred million shares so no matter what happens he can benefit hugely when the bonds are monetised either by sale or by ING. That will be a juat reward for him for not giving up over all these years.
ING in my view WILL be forced to negotiate an out of court settlement. All that needs to happen is the judge needs to sit down and read La Porte's (who is a world expert)report on the validity of the bonds.
Having seen a picture posted here of the bonds, I'd say its EXTREMELY unlikely indeed that the bonds are fake. To have a printing press that can overlay multiple colours to that precision costs millions. That kind of facility is going to be guarded day and night - because it will be located somewhere like a bank note manufacturing company. So, suddenly one night while the boss was out a group of guys walked into the bank note printing facility, printed off a whole series of fake bonds, walked back out and nobody noticed?
That's why it's just not feasible that the bonds are fake, on the most simple analysis.
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