The key point I am making is that there are a bunch of companies with little if any revenue for roughly 4 years or more. Think about it, 4 years with zero revenue. Treaty made 75,000 bucks last quarter and yet closed the week at the lowest it's been in over a year and a half. The company has more revenue production year to date than all of last year, yet trades below June of 2011 prices. It is also much further along on it's project and has more projects in the works than June of 2011.
This underscores the fact that a lot of this is speculation. For those that are losing heart with this start up E&P play, there are multiple examples of companies that are worse off when measured objectively by metrics such as revenue and oil production, but somehow get the benefit of the doubt even with years of non production.
Yeah, I understand that 10/1 ECCE had their PR. I'll concede a delayed reaction to news , but you would still have to concede the fact that it's pure blind speculation considering the lack of revenue and for that matter the declining production. They only have one producer and it's been a steep drop off each successive month. They have a well which has been in the works since 2010 but haven't even broken ground on it.
Next, ERHE, no money for about 10 years. That's 10 years of zero revenue on a 65 million dollar market cap. Maybe I missed something but I scanned back through the 10 K's and never saw any revenue. I saw one sale of a concession, which provided "other income" but I think that was in 2007 and that to me is a non recurring item. Wow, 10 years of no revenue.
I understand that they are fueling speculation for something big but to me that begs the question, why wouldn't the majors or some mid cap independent be on the case if this had a chance of a billion barrels? I mean CNOOC will build a soccer stadium and roads just to get on good terms with African leaders, why wouldn't they have been involved with this concession already? In any event, the key thing once again is that due to the lack of news or lack of revenue, the recent pop is a pure chart setup play as far as I can tell.
HDY - Once again, no money for nearly 4 years and guess what no money again for a couple of more. If we're supposed to gauge companies based on the proof being in the pudding, HDY should be trading well below 50 cents. I'm not denying that they had an impressive PR, but like I said based on revenue metrics it's hard to justify it's price. A half decade with zero revenue and with a ball park 5 year pay back period on any given well project, industry standard, that means that they likely won't turn a profit until nearly 2020 unless they hit it big. No thanks.
WGASD - They did a reverse about the time they were getting to the latter stages of the well completion. It said it was on a 24 hour production cycle, but I was under the impression that it was just a part of the later stages of the well completion. No sales announced yet though.
The thing that I have been told is that you can do all the seismic you want, but it's all academic until you break ground on that first exploratory well, complete, and start producing. Maybe Treaty's problem isn't that it wasn't too bold in it's scheduling and production projections, but rather that it has not been bold enough.
Once again, I just want people to get a perspective on this company by looking at lots of other E&P plays that have pissed away money year after year with little if anything to show for it yet somehow get a pop by announcing a great discovery in the making. If money talks and BS walks, a lot of companies are walking all the way to the bank with their market cap with even less oil than what Treaty has brought to market last quarter.
