The comparison firm in question, ECCE, is a very slow mover and it has wells that have been in the works since 2010, with only 1 of all of their wells actually having produced anything in the last year. They published their first PR in over a year in October and it was to announce an acquisition. They don't really say much. They don't seem to be very vocal about their ambition as far as I can tell.
They have zero revenue from oil this year and their 10 Q that just came out in the first week of November didn't announce any new projects or any hint of more revenue. They sold a couple of grand in nat gas but that's about it. I see no fundamental catalyst to explain the pop that it had. The only thing that explains the pop is the higher low chart pattern.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ECCE
Another penny E&P which actually has a bigger market cap than TECO, has lost more money for much longer, has made zero revenue for the last 3 years and no money this year is ERHE. I don't know how this thing is publicly traded and the only thing that explains the pop it had in Sep/Oct from 10 cents to 15 cents is chart pattern. The stock is heavily bashed but somehow it plods on.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ERHE+Income+S...amp;annual
HDY also had zero revenue for the last 3 years, and no revenue this year. It just had a pop from 65 cents up to 1.30 in October/November.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=HDY+Income+St...amp;annual
I was actually in WGASD for a little while this year. Their biggest year of revenue was in 2009 with 18,000 dollars although they have no revenue this year. They just completed a rig and a hole and started pressure testing in September and the well is complete but guess what, not even a barrel of oil has been sold as far as I can tell.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=WGASD&annual
So when people say TECO screwed the pooch on projections, I can understand their frustration. However, when I look at a lot of these tiny E&P plays what I see seems to be about par for course.
In addition these examples of companies who have zero revenue for 3 years, going on to 4, somehow achieving pops in their stock price supports my case for Treaty seeing a pop on 75,000 dollars of 3rd quarter revenue based on chart pattern alone.
There's another thing. I am in this for the long haul because I am expecting Treaty to become a mid sized oil company a few years down the road. I'm talking about 5,000 bpd or so pushing a half billion market cap. There are E&P companies that are quietly executing on their 3 leases which over the next 5 years will max out at 500 bpd, but I have zero interest in those plays.
