CTIX News 08/25/2014 18:28:05 $CTIX TOB this is a
Post# of 64200
Posted On: 08/25/2014 7:28:12 PM
CTIX News 08/25/2014 18:28:05 $CTIX
TOB this is a good board and I noticed you were absent during much of the malaise of the past year. Good to see you back engaged. CTIX has real potential and may make many here a lot of money!
Hey Miles, read the linked article. Interesting. They got some right. Mostly wrong in the interpretations, IMO. I think you agree. Time will certainly tell.
The trader part in me could care less. One nice thing when trading. I listen to the market, not my inner voice.
Course, the investor in me did the research and put a long term position on. Haven't changed my very, positive fundamental assessment of CTIX in over two years.
I briefly subscribed to Hot Stocks. Came to believe my own analysis was doing better than theirs. Other words: Trades based on their system underperformed my own trades (hard to explain what my system is).
Always my best to you.
CTIX Stock Message Board http://investorshangout.com/Cellceutix-Corpor...TIX-87375/
You said it better than I. Thanks.
I like the addition of "semi-smart" money to the equation, to differentiate from Institutional. The "semi-smart" CTIX has already. If we have any "smart money" Institutional, its likely at the nibble level and at the small end of the definition.
I always enjoy and value your posts.
Great day today for CTIX! Looking for that close above $2.15 before a retrace and test of Support at $2.05 or$2.10 which ever one the market wants to take us to test. Then a nice chart cool down and reset launching us past our all time high before settling in to a whole new price regime based on real time news!
Congrats Patience Longs!
Here's an article by a man not looking very deeply...
http://www.hotstocked.com/article/87917/cellc...gains.html
Thanks for the notice, guy. Now sulk away and prepare your apology.
Think or Swim/TD Ameritrade also shows today's CTIX volume as 698,454, the same as iHub
Interesting that those others show the same, lower number. Must be a common price feed issue, but I don't know the details. No doubt an OTC issue.
The other's numbers still puts today as above average volume, and higher than yesterday, so a similar chart read IMO. But with that said, more is better.
TOB...Yahoo, Etrade, Nasdaq, freerealtime all show 619,309 shares traded. The only place I see 698,000 is on I-hub. It's hard to figure out how 80,000 shares got added to I-hub or didn't get counted on all the other services. I suppose at some point it will need to be sorted out for the historical record. Will it make a difference in the charts, one versus the other?
Interesting post. I try and let you (and a few others) do the heavy lifting for me on potential valuations for CTIX. My mind turns to mush when I start contemplating all the potential inputs and thru puts and end points. Mush.
About K: Can't get around K being unrewarded partially because it has been so successful in trials. Keeps proving to be very safe, no end to cohorts in sight. But, I know what all this really adds up to in the end, MORE $$$$.
While B and P likely will find faster routes to market, I still believe the most valuable gem to be K.
Can't forget about the autism compound and other goodies in the vault either.
BigK, thanks again for a very enlightening post.
I think so BK. You add so much to this board, its time for the rocket!!!
I like the volume of the past few weeks. Around 4M total shares traded. This is enough to allow someone (or multiple someone's) to build a decent position. I'm still not sure we have any real institutional buying at this point. The total value of the rally is less than 10M in trade value. (if we were seeing 25-50M in value then I think bigger players are engaging)
I still think this rally is still primarily semi-smart and retail money. Semi-smart are individuals who are professionals with decent portfolios and have a few hundred thousand to play with. They have a higher risk tolerance and play in the margins (looking for high beta stocks) which CTIX may become. However, real "smart money" is going to wait for a drug to be proven to work or if they get wind of a deal or trial outcome. They'll want to deploy 10s of millions into the trade. It's too much work to follow a bunch of small investments.
If the volume and rally continue to build and increase, I'd start to lean towards someone (or a group) taking a decent position (or information is leaking and friends and family are buying in mass).
I'm still planning to add another 100k shares on good news. If Brilacidin works we're on our way to a home run. On it's strength alone $10-20/share is very doable. If we get positive news on Kevetrin and Brilacidin, it could get very exciting.
It should be a fun fall
While TOB has his "Rally [Chimp]," it's time for me to break out my "Rocket to the Moon!" siggie.
Why CTIX?
#1 Brilacidin:
Since the Polymedix acquisition last year, the adding of their assets, and in particular Brilacidin, was not met by an expected increase in valuation. Instead, following the acquisition a long slide from 2.20 region to 1.40 ensued. This in spite of a $200 valuation of the Brilacidin asset prior to Phase 2b trial start. Even as the end of the trial is now official, and the announcement that B-ABSSSI performed at least as expected, the share price is only just now approaching the price just prior to the acquisition a year ago.
Add to the B-ABSSSI Phase 2b announcement that of a pending INDA for Brilacidin-OM, followed by Brilacidin-Ocular, Brilacidin-Otic, and Brilacidin-Diabetic Foot Infections/Ulcers and the Brilacidin value becomes something well north of $200 million. So, discounting and further increased valuation following the Phase 2b trial, the market still does not as of yet recognize any value in the rest of the platform. This will change.
#2 Kevetrin (many would put this at #1)
Kevetrin has long been the flagship drug for CTIX, though arguably recently replaced by Brilacidin. Kevetrin is the platform drug. Following successful Phase 1 studies, there are already 2 more studies planned at world class research centers, MD Anderson and University of Bologna, with a third trial planned at Beth Isreal, all at no, or almost no, cost to CTIX and its shareholders.
Drawbacks to Kevetrin are that it is in the most expensive development arena of biopharma, ontology, and the current trial could go on for at least another 6 months, possibly even a year. Then, there is some question whether or not it will be effective as a stand alone drug, which means to some that developing each combination therapy will mean each requiring a Phase 1b start. CTIX will need funding for these trials, which means partnering, even if a license with $50 million up front is reached for any drug in its pipeline.
On the other hand, as noted above, there is much available in support for a new, effective addition to anticancer therapies, and the efficacy that K targets is considered to be the holy grail of oncology, at least for 50% of all cancers. The high cost and high potential is the balance reflected in the shareprice and cap over the past 18 months, until last week. Nonetheless, the SP is still inside the extended flag reaching all the way back to January 2013.
The question for shareholders, current and future, looking back Brilacidin and the lack of added valuation since its acquisition, to what extent is the current cap reflective of total added values as Brilacidin and its many forms and Kevetrin as an emerging platform? I would postulate that we are currently not more than half way there at $2, and probably a third of the way.
#3 Prurisol
This drug was to be the "meal ticket" for Kevetrin clinical trials until Brilacidin knocked it off its perch. In nonclinical testing, Prurisol was a functional cure of psoriasis. Not just lesion clearance as measured by PASI, but total, full disappearance for the nonclinical trial life of the subject mice. Nonetheless, since Prurisol shifted from proof of concept to FDA trial, several new and effective drugs have won FDA approval. The question remains, with increased competition, will Prurisol prove to be as effective in clinical trials as it has been in nonclinicals? Currently, we would not expect it to add value to the bottom line as the other two drugs now dominate that aspect of CTIX. Still, should Prurisol prove to be what it was in preclinical development, expect a billion dollars in increased cap following such a successful 2/3a trial, a trial that should be short and sweet at about 1 year's duration.
Putting it all together
Should the results of the Brilacidin-ABSSSI trial turn out as many expect--high efficacy, low toxicity, short duration regimen--expect a breakthrough therapy designation with a straight to NDA and clinical approval. In the meantime, clinical trials against other infections as well as formulations are already ramping up. A partnership or license deal should also be in the works and in place in Q1 2015.
Here is the caveat to the partnership and timing, 30 kg of Brilacidin in its current formulation is a lot of product even at the higher dose of 1.8 mg/kg over 3 days. Given Leo's explanation, for future clinical trials, that would be enough product for 250K patients, or 250 trials of 1000 patients each. 250 trials? Really? He expects >200 Phase 2/3 trials over the next year? Sufficient material for 150K patients, enough to treat 25% of all hospitalized ABSSSI for the entire first year, would also have enough left over for another 100 trials of 1000 patients each. Still a lot of trials. Do keep in mind that the other forms of Brilacidin are reformulations, so Leo can't be including those in his future trials.
As for Kevetrin, while a successful Cohort 8 and approval of 9 should be viewed buy the market as a great success, 215 mg/m2 deemed safe, advancement of trials, all trials, are still a year away. Still, each advancing cohort should also add value. And, should Brilacidin result in a partner, those future trials will be fully funded and that will change the valuation metric substantially for the better.
Prurisol will be Prurisol, and once that is clinically proven, it should result in an additional $10 a share over and above any valuation for B and K, if only for its billion dollar market potential.
IMO-FWIW
Interesting to note that CTIX rallied to $2.47 at the end of 2012 with the Kevetrin only at the start of its Phase 1 Clinical Trial at Harvard Cancer Centers.
That was long before Brilacidin made its surprise arrival, with Brilacidin now approaching Phase 2b Clinical Trial results in Q4
That was before the marvelous Aspire financing which allowed CTIX to advance with only minimal dilution. Unusual for an early stage bio-tech.
Now here we are in 2014, at the cusp of a flurry of Clinical Trials for three drugs, Kevetrin, Prurisol and Brilacidin, with Kevetrin now at a very advanced stage and dosage well into the expected therapeutic range with a proven safety profile.
Much justification for a higher CTIX share price, considering Cellceutix is vastly stronger now than it was at the end of 2012.
TOB, we will have to agree to disagree on this point.
But, I'm sure we can agree to agree that things are looking pretty good for CTIX, presently.
INH, Thx for your answer. I agree exciting times ahead for all of us longs. I have been a shareholder since 2011. It feels like it is all coming together now!!!!
Seems so, my friend.
noretreat, your post:
Quote:
a lot of things seem to be coming together nicely right now...
I am especially happy for investors like you, who have taken large and patient positions based on a good understanding of CTIX fundamentals. CTIX is way overdue for some positive recognition.
I think your faith in CTIX will be validated soon.
Excellent summary of events. The only thing I don't agree on is Polymedix management being respected. There were long brewing issues. Many considered the CEO as arrogant and that may have stalled potential partnerships.
For example, take a look at this post on the Polymedix board from Friday, 11/09/12 12:26:08 PM
TOB this is a good board and I noticed you were absent during much of the malaise of the past year. Good to see you back engaged. CTIX has real potential and may make many here a lot of money!
Hey Miles, read the linked article. Interesting. They got some right. Mostly wrong in the interpretations, IMO. I think you agree. Time will certainly tell.
The trader part in me could care less. One nice thing when trading. I listen to the market, not my inner voice.
Course, the investor in me did the research and put a long term position on. Haven't changed my very, positive fundamental assessment of CTIX in over two years.
I briefly subscribed to Hot Stocks. Came to believe my own analysis was doing better than theirs. Other words: Trades based on their system underperformed my own trades (hard to explain what my system is).
Always my best to you.
CTIX Stock Message Board http://investorshangout.com/Cellceutix-Corpor...TIX-87375/
You said it better than I. Thanks.
I like the addition of "semi-smart" money to the equation, to differentiate from Institutional. The "semi-smart" CTIX has already. If we have any "smart money" Institutional, its likely at the nibble level and at the small end of the definition.
I always enjoy and value your posts.
Great day today for CTIX! Looking for that close above $2.15 before a retrace and test of Support at $2.05 or$2.10 which ever one the market wants to take us to test. Then a nice chart cool down and reset launching us past our all time high before settling in to a whole new price regime based on real time news!
Congrats Patience Longs!
Here's an article by a man not looking very deeply...
http://www.hotstocked.com/article/87917/cellc...gains.html
Thanks for the notice, guy. Now sulk away and prepare your apology.
Think or Swim/TD Ameritrade also shows today's CTIX volume as 698,454, the same as iHub
Interesting that those others show the same, lower number. Must be a common price feed issue, but I don't know the details. No doubt an OTC issue.
The other's numbers still puts today as above average volume, and higher than yesterday, so a similar chart read IMO. But with that said, more is better.
TOB...Yahoo, Etrade, Nasdaq, freerealtime all show 619,309 shares traded. The only place I see 698,000 is on I-hub. It's hard to figure out how 80,000 shares got added to I-hub or didn't get counted on all the other services. I suppose at some point it will need to be sorted out for the historical record. Will it make a difference in the charts, one versus the other?
Interesting post. I try and let you (and a few others) do the heavy lifting for me on potential valuations for CTIX. My mind turns to mush when I start contemplating all the potential inputs and thru puts and end points. Mush.
About K: Can't get around K being unrewarded partially because it has been so successful in trials. Keeps proving to be very safe, no end to cohorts in sight. But, I know what all this really adds up to in the end, MORE $$$$.
While B and P likely will find faster routes to market, I still believe the most valuable gem to be K.
Can't forget about the autism compound and other goodies in the vault either.
BigK, thanks again for a very enlightening post.
I think so BK. You add so much to this board, its time for the rocket!!!
I like the volume of the past few weeks. Around 4M total shares traded. This is enough to allow someone (or multiple someone's) to build a decent position. I'm still not sure we have any real institutional buying at this point. The total value of the rally is less than 10M in trade value. (if we were seeing 25-50M in value then I think bigger players are engaging)
I still think this rally is still primarily semi-smart and retail money. Semi-smart are individuals who are professionals with decent portfolios and have a few hundred thousand to play with. They have a higher risk tolerance and play in the margins (looking for high beta stocks) which CTIX may become. However, real "smart money" is going to wait for a drug to be proven to work or if they get wind of a deal or trial outcome. They'll want to deploy 10s of millions into the trade. It's too much work to follow a bunch of small investments.
If the volume and rally continue to build and increase, I'd start to lean towards someone (or a group) taking a decent position (or information is leaking and friends and family are buying in mass).
I'm still planning to add another 100k shares on good news. If Brilacidin works we're on our way to a home run. On it's strength alone $10-20/share is very doable. If we get positive news on Kevetrin and Brilacidin, it could get very exciting.
It should be a fun fall
While TOB has his "Rally [Chimp]," it's time for me to break out my "Rocket to the Moon!" siggie.
Why CTIX?
#1 Brilacidin:
Since the Polymedix acquisition last year, the adding of their assets, and in particular Brilacidin, was not met by an expected increase in valuation. Instead, following the acquisition a long slide from 2.20 region to 1.40 ensued. This in spite of a $200 valuation of the Brilacidin asset prior to Phase 2b trial start. Even as the end of the trial is now official, and the announcement that B-ABSSSI performed at least as expected, the share price is only just now approaching the price just prior to the acquisition a year ago.
Add to the B-ABSSSI Phase 2b announcement that of a pending INDA for Brilacidin-OM, followed by Brilacidin-Ocular, Brilacidin-Otic, and Brilacidin-Diabetic Foot Infections/Ulcers and the Brilacidin value becomes something well north of $200 million. So, discounting and further increased valuation following the Phase 2b trial, the market still does not as of yet recognize any value in the rest of the platform. This will change.
#2 Kevetrin (many would put this at #1)
Kevetrin has long been the flagship drug for CTIX, though arguably recently replaced by Brilacidin. Kevetrin is the platform drug. Following successful Phase 1 studies, there are already 2 more studies planned at world class research centers, MD Anderson and University of Bologna, with a third trial planned at Beth Isreal, all at no, or almost no, cost to CTIX and its shareholders.
Drawbacks to Kevetrin are that it is in the most expensive development arena of biopharma, ontology, and the current trial could go on for at least another 6 months, possibly even a year. Then, there is some question whether or not it will be effective as a stand alone drug, which means to some that developing each combination therapy will mean each requiring a Phase 1b start. CTIX will need funding for these trials, which means partnering, even if a license with $50 million up front is reached for any drug in its pipeline.
On the other hand, as noted above, there is much available in support for a new, effective addition to anticancer therapies, and the efficacy that K targets is considered to be the holy grail of oncology, at least for 50% of all cancers. The high cost and high potential is the balance reflected in the shareprice and cap over the past 18 months, until last week. Nonetheless, the SP is still inside the extended flag reaching all the way back to January 2013.
The question for shareholders, current and future, looking back Brilacidin and the lack of added valuation since its acquisition, to what extent is the current cap reflective of total added values as Brilacidin and its many forms and Kevetrin as an emerging platform? I would postulate that we are currently not more than half way there at $2, and probably a third of the way.
#3 Prurisol
This drug was to be the "meal ticket" for Kevetrin clinical trials until Brilacidin knocked it off its perch. In nonclinical testing, Prurisol was a functional cure of psoriasis. Not just lesion clearance as measured by PASI, but total, full disappearance for the nonclinical trial life of the subject mice. Nonetheless, since Prurisol shifted from proof of concept to FDA trial, several new and effective drugs have won FDA approval. The question remains, with increased competition, will Prurisol prove to be as effective in clinical trials as it has been in nonclinicals? Currently, we would not expect it to add value to the bottom line as the other two drugs now dominate that aspect of CTIX. Still, should Prurisol prove to be what it was in preclinical development, expect a billion dollars in increased cap following such a successful 2/3a trial, a trial that should be short and sweet at about 1 year's duration.
Putting it all together
Should the results of the Brilacidin-ABSSSI trial turn out as many expect--high efficacy, low toxicity, short duration regimen--expect a breakthrough therapy designation with a straight to NDA and clinical approval. In the meantime, clinical trials against other infections as well as formulations are already ramping up. A partnership or license deal should also be in the works and in place in Q1 2015.
Here is the caveat to the partnership and timing, 30 kg of Brilacidin in its current formulation is a lot of product even at the higher dose of 1.8 mg/kg over 3 days. Given Leo's explanation, for future clinical trials, that would be enough product for 250K patients, or 250 trials of 1000 patients each. 250 trials? Really? He expects >200 Phase 2/3 trials over the next year? Sufficient material for 150K patients, enough to treat 25% of all hospitalized ABSSSI for the entire first year, would also have enough left over for another 100 trials of 1000 patients each. Still a lot of trials. Do keep in mind that the other forms of Brilacidin are reformulations, so Leo can't be including those in his future trials.
As for Kevetrin, while a successful Cohort 8 and approval of 9 should be viewed buy the market as a great success, 215 mg/m2 deemed safe, advancement of trials, all trials, are still a year away. Still, each advancing cohort should also add value. And, should Brilacidin result in a partner, those future trials will be fully funded and that will change the valuation metric substantially for the better.
Prurisol will be Prurisol, and once that is clinically proven, it should result in an additional $10 a share over and above any valuation for B and K, if only for its billion dollar market potential.
IMO-FWIW
Interesting to note that CTIX rallied to $2.47 at the end of 2012 with the Kevetrin only at the start of its Phase 1 Clinical Trial at Harvard Cancer Centers.
That was long before Brilacidin made its surprise arrival, with Brilacidin now approaching Phase 2b Clinical Trial results in Q4
That was before the marvelous Aspire financing which allowed CTIX to advance with only minimal dilution. Unusual for an early stage bio-tech.
Now here we are in 2014, at the cusp of a flurry of Clinical Trials for three drugs, Kevetrin, Prurisol and Brilacidin, with Kevetrin now at a very advanced stage and dosage well into the expected therapeutic range with a proven safety profile.
Much justification for a higher CTIX share price, considering Cellceutix is vastly stronger now than it was at the end of 2012.
TOB, we will have to agree to disagree on this point.
But, I'm sure we can agree to agree that things are looking pretty good for CTIX, presently.
INH, Thx for your answer. I agree exciting times ahead for all of us longs. I have been a shareholder since 2011. It feels like it is all coming together now!!!!
Seems so, my friend.
noretreat, your post:
Quote:
a lot of things seem to be coming together nicely right now...
I am especially happy for investors like you, who have taken large and patient positions based on a good understanding of CTIX fundamentals. CTIX is way overdue for some positive recognition.
I think your faith in CTIX will be validated soon.
Excellent summary of events. The only thing I don't agree on is Polymedix management being respected. There were long brewing issues. Many considered the CEO as arrogant and that may have stalled potential partnerships.
For example, take a look at this post on the Polymedix board from Friday, 11/09/12 12:26:08 PM
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