CTIX Discussion 08/24/2014 21:23:56 $CTIX
I'm confused, are you saying that B going against Dapto is bad? Isn't Vancomycin considered inferior to Daptomycin, and progressively developing resistant? My belief is that CTIX is being touted for going against a more superior drug than Vancomycin, rather than taking the easy route. I wanna go against the best, and beat the best, that's how you get your name in the paper.
I followed the sistership way back when and had my eyes on it for some quite time between 1.00 - 2.00. Maybe I was just looking for trade or did not understand it well enough. Then I lost sight of it. Until I woke up one day and said to myself, you just can't chase this now............................ya, right.
CTIX Stock Message Board http://investorshangout.com/Cellceutix-Corpor...TIX-87375/
Critics in the medical community will be quick to point out that CTIX went against the grain by choosing to pit Brilacidin against daptomycin instead of the current standard for skin infections caused by MRSA.
When the data is unblinded, I am confident that a single dose of Brilacidin .8mg/kg will be equal to daptomycin for 7 days based on the Polymedix data.
The medical community will be very critical of Leo's choice to use the daptomycin arm as the standard and may explain all this anticipatory anxiety by many of the posters present.
If you google MRSA skin infections your fist hit will be VANCOMYCIN not daptomycin or tedizolide !!!
jok, there definitely are a ton of variables. That's one reason I enjoy the markets so much. From your post:
Quote:
i knew beforehand that there are a tone of variables that would have too be taken into account.
I did find your use of "hope" a bit interesting:
Quote:
The reasoning behind was to give me an idea of what i should hope for and what i am hoping of is a slow steady rise based on positive material events.
From my experience, hope = market loses from emotional decisions. I've always had better gains when trying to understand what the market has to say. I may hope a company is successful and achieves this or that, but I never count on hope to determine where a share price is going to be from time to time.
I gather you are a longer term CTIX investor, and have done research to your satisfaction. From your post:
Quote:
I believe great things are coming for those that have patience and i have a lot.
Good up front research (fundamental analysis) can definitely reduce risk. But, for all the research, most of us do not know near, all the important information. Often, technical deviations from fundamental expectations can manifest. I never downplay the technical, because it is reality in the markets. I never write off good fundamental analysis, I just know it is incomplete information.
I got involved in CTIX at a good time. My initial investments were late in 2012, were the basis of my long term holdings, and I am way up since then. Following the board since then, I have listened to many grumbling about their own investment. I was happy while others grumbled. The main reason is timing. I entered at a good time, some have not.
You have had bad experiences with shorter term trading and made this statement:
Quote:
I have tried timing my trading in the past thinking i was smarter that the market and that has never been a great proposition based on results. getting caught with your pants down around your ankles can be costly.
Remember the saying: When running from a bear, one needs to be faster than the other guy, not faster than the bear. That is my experience with trading. I will never be smarter than the market, but I am not competing against the market, just that other trader.
I have done well trading CTIX too. Although, not much this year because of the lack of volatility. Yet, I have made several 20% gains from short weekly positions.
Which is better: A 100% gain over a year, or several 20% gains (compounded and reinvested) over a biweekly time frame. I don't really have the answer. But, over the past few years I have had much higher percentage gains in my trade account. While the largest dollar gains have come from my longer term account. This because, I have substantially more in the longer term account.
Part of the reason I invest/trade as I do, is because I find it difficult to manage trading with larger sums. So, as my trade account gets to a certain size, I divert some to long term and some to income.
All this leads me to a point: Each of us must find our own successful ways to invest/trade. Don't be too quick to criticize, to objectify, to discount, or assume. Fundamental and technical analysis each have their place. Choose one over the other, and get an incomplete picture. Combine the two and get a much richer picture.
I really liked this statement from another of your recent posts:
Quote:
I looked at Gilead's chart about a year and some time ago
Tells me you are learning, researching, questioning, looking for relevance.
Me too.
By the way, anyone crossing the finish line is a winner:
I'd be most worried if I were the guy carrying the extra spare tire:
CTIX has been likened to PCYC from time to time on this board. The chart link below shows the original escalation from the 1.16 low set in August of 2009 to a rise ending at 2.41 (almost exactly as CTIX), only to fall back and form a slightly downward sloping/horizontal consolidation to a 1.71 low, bottoming aprox 3 months later. Again, price wise very similar to CTIX price/consolidation. From the 1.71 low, PCYC stair stepped over the next four and a half months up to 8.60. For those unaware, PCYC share price closed at $119.32 on Friday.
What caused the the 1.71 march to 8.60 in just four plus months? I,m guessing it was precipitated by Clinical Trial, Phase 1 and 2 results announced in early Dec, 2009. (see second link below)
Some interesting commonality in this young CTIX.
http://scharts.co/YSlKli
http://ir.pharmacyclics.com/releases.cfm?Rele...Descending
I appreciate your time to reply. I would prefer a slow and steady with an occasional spike that makes people pause and say WOW! I looked at Gilead's chart about a year and some time ago and said that is what i want and i think that is what we have hear plus some.
Thank your sir
Thank you sir.
Jok
So excited for tomorrow morning ...let's hope she delivers
INH, i like your answer as i knew beforehand that there are a tone of variables that would have too be taken into account. The reasoning behind was to give me an idea of what i should hope for and what i am hoping of is a slow steady rise based on positive material events. I believe great things are coming for those that have patience and i have a lot. I have tried timing my trading in the past thinking i was smarter that the market and that has never been a great proposition based on results. getting caught with your pants down around your ankles can be costly. Thanks for your time spent on your volumous answer.
Jok
Anyone have an idea to the upfront cost to make this large quantity?
Could Leo be producing this for clinical sales and not trials. Thanks.
jok, you ask the unanswerable:
Quote:
Would it not be better for a slow 2-3 % rise on a daily basis that goes for a 3-4 week period. would that not be more sustainable over the long haul or is a huge spike in volume and price over a 2-3 day period preferred?
First, it's never a matter of what is preferable. It's always what the market gives.
A point: A matter of preference is very subjective. What the market actually gives is definitive, something one can make a decision on.
Second, a big factor on sustainability is the catalyst. Why is the stock PPS rising?
A simple example: A stock being successfully pumped and dumped could have a tremendous effect on PPS, over days or weeks or months. Inevitably, when the market realizes the pump was smoke not substance, then the rise becomes unsustainable and collapses. Another stock with solid potential improving fundamentals (revenue enhancing, decreased time to market, milestone breakthroughs, buyout candidate) with a rising share price, fast or slow, long or short duration, will hold onto a rational part of the PPS gain. There probably would be price adjustments, but the gains likely sustainable as long as rational to the market.
Third, the market is dynamic. Depends on market participants, shares outstanding, shares in float; sometimes, general market, industry, sector health, etc.
An observed factor: Stocks generally tend to rally more in bull versus bear markets. Gains are generally more sustainable in bull versus bear markets.
Fourth, a lot would depend on one's time horizon.
A simple example: If one has a multi year time horizon and the company continues to outperform expectations, the price will continue rising -- despite temporary pullbacks. Many of us hope this is the case for CTIX. If one has a short term time horizon; then, it is much more critical to time exact short term cycle highs and lows.
One opinion I have concerning the (apparent) ongoing CTIX rise, last week's news story does not explain all the money flows coming into the CTIX trade. I am expecting more inflows, more positive news, a greater rise in PPS, and some market volatility thrown in to boot. Things may become clear when a news story breaks that pulls in lots of retailers and helps to clarify what some of us are assuming presently.
From a technical traders perspective, I learn the condition and sustainability of the trade, hour by hour, day by day, week by week. My preferences make no difference to the market.
jok, the question you ask is a fair one. But, too many variables to give a simple answer. Wish it were simple, it would be easier to profit in the markets.
Preferably the way of the tortoise, slow but steady underlying accumulation for years. Reference biotech multi billion $ monster Gilead Sciences 3 year, 5 bagger chart, touched the weekly 50 DMA all but once. Boring but measure the trend line angle, simply amazing. Don't know if it can be done here since it's still small cap territory. Ideally, it gaps into the stratosphere then sideways before the next leg higher.......................................but Dr Rally knows better than I.
It was just a random thought on my part, would hate to see a big spike in SP over a day or 2 just to see a retrace to old resistance levels. I am just hoping for a slow steady climb supported by events and make anyone afraid to flip shares. Go long and stay strong, i want to retire in 3 years and i believe if have found the ticket to my adventure.
Can't wait for tomorrow.
Thaks
It'll be great to hear about the conclusion of cohort 8 by R&R. I think we will get a PR tomorrow about the filing of B-OM INDA and the R&R presentation info. Anything extra is a bonus.
Quote:
PR sequence - R&R Conf slot is only for 20 min - so Leo will avoid trial related new annoucments. So here is what I think
- tomorrow PR on cohort 8
- next week no PR as short week
- R&R Conf - more details on B results, discussion on P results and cohort 9 schedule, and B-OM
And finally as a surprise some announcement on Big pharma agreement (I hope)
This will be more than even big pharma can do in 3 weeks
As usual.
I agree but it's a rhetorical question since we might go slow and steady for a while and then drop like a rock then spike to a double from whence it dropped.
As long a a the outcome is the same it won't matter. Slow and steady or spike, drop, return. Nobody can control it anyway.
Go CTIX!
Yep, what Miles said.
My 2 cents. The longer we can be steady and base build around LT support lines above $2 the better it will be when the inevitable spike occurs. Why? Because the higher support level will mitigate correction and standard retrace action. If for example, 2.33 - 2.40 area could build strong support then a spike over $3 would would have a higher probability of holding and potentially not retracing to $2 area we are at now. That's what TA does. Looks at probabilities so one can establish a risk/reward scenario.
Holding straight though can work too as long as company performance continues.
There is a style for everyone and money to be made.
CTIX.....Green for Everyone.
The facts were wrong but the story was true. go CTIX!
I'm confused, are you saying that B going against Dapto is bad? Isn't Vancomycin considered inferior to Daptomycin, and progressively developing resistant? My belief is that CTIX is being touted for going against a more superior drug than Vancomycin, rather than taking the easy route. I wanna go against the best, and beat the best, that's how you get your name in the paper.
I followed the sistership way back when and had my eyes on it for some quite time between 1.00 - 2.00. Maybe I was just looking for trade or did not understand it well enough. Then I lost sight of it. Until I woke up one day and said to myself, you just can't chase this now............................ya, right.
CTIX Stock Message Board http://investorshangout.com/Cellceutix-Corpor...TIX-87375/
Critics in the medical community will be quick to point out that CTIX went against the grain by choosing to pit Brilacidin against daptomycin instead of the current standard for skin infections caused by MRSA.
When the data is unblinded, I am confident that a single dose of Brilacidin .8mg/kg will be equal to daptomycin for 7 days based on the Polymedix data.
The medical community will be very critical of Leo's choice to use the daptomycin arm as the standard and may explain all this anticipatory anxiety by many of the posters present.
If you google MRSA skin infections your fist hit will be VANCOMYCIN not daptomycin or tedizolide !!!
jok, there definitely are a ton of variables. That's one reason I enjoy the markets so much. From your post:
Quote:
i knew beforehand that there are a tone of variables that would have too be taken into account.
I did find your use of "hope" a bit interesting:
Quote:
The reasoning behind was to give me an idea of what i should hope for and what i am hoping of is a slow steady rise based on positive material events.
From my experience, hope = market loses from emotional decisions. I've always had better gains when trying to understand what the market has to say. I may hope a company is successful and achieves this or that, but I never count on hope to determine where a share price is going to be from time to time.
I gather you are a longer term CTIX investor, and have done research to your satisfaction. From your post:
Quote:
I believe great things are coming for those that have patience and i have a lot.
Good up front research (fundamental analysis) can definitely reduce risk. But, for all the research, most of us do not know near, all the important information. Often, technical deviations from fundamental expectations can manifest. I never downplay the technical, because it is reality in the markets. I never write off good fundamental analysis, I just know it is incomplete information.
I got involved in CTIX at a good time. My initial investments were late in 2012, were the basis of my long term holdings, and I am way up since then. Following the board since then, I have listened to many grumbling about their own investment. I was happy while others grumbled. The main reason is timing. I entered at a good time, some have not.
You have had bad experiences with shorter term trading and made this statement:
Quote:
I have tried timing my trading in the past thinking i was smarter that the market and that has never been a great proposition based on results. getting caught with your pants down around your ankles can be costly.
Remember the saying: When running from a bear, one needs to be faster than the other guy, not faster than the bear. That is my experience with trading. I will never be smarter than the market, but I am not competing against the market, just that other trader.
I have done well trading CTIX too. Although, not much this year because of the lack of volatility. Yet, I have made several 20% gains from short weekly positions.
Which is better: A 100% gain over a year, or several 20% gains (compounded and reinvested) over a biweekly time frame. I don't really have the answer. But, over the past few years I have had much higher percentage gains in my trade account. While the largest dollar gains have come from my longer term account. This because, I have substantially more in the longer term account.
Part of the reason I invest/trade as I do, is because I find it difficult to manage trading with larger sums. So, as my trade account gets to a certain size, I divert some to long term and some to income.
All this leads me to a point: Each of us must find our own successful ways to invest/trade. Don't be too quick to criticize, to objectify, to discount, or assume. Fundamental and technical analysis each have their place. Choose one over the other, and get an incomplete picture. Combine the two and get a much richer picture.
I really liked this statement from another of your recent posts:
Quote:
I looked at Gilead's chart about a year and some time ago
Tells me you are learning, researching, questioning, looking for relevance.
Me too.
By the way, anyone crossing the finish line is a winner:
I'd be most worried if I were the guy carrying the extra spare tire:
CTIX has been likened to PCYC from time to time on this board. The chart link below shows the original escalation from the 1.16 low set in August of 2009 to a rise ending at 2.41 (almost exactly as CTIX), only to fall back and form a slightly downward sloping/horizontal consolidation to a 1.71 low, bottoming aprox 3 months later. Again, price wise very similar to CTIX price/consolidation. From the 1.71 low, PCYC stair stepped over the next four and a half months up to 8.60. For those unaware, PCYC share price closed at $119.32 on Friday.
What caused the the 1.71 march to 8.60 in just four plus months? I,m guessing it was precipitated by Clinical Trial, Phase 1 and 2 results announced in early Dec, 2009. (see second link below)
Some interesting commonality in this young CTIX.
http://scharts.co/YSlKli
http://ir.pharmacyclics.com/releases.cfm?Rele...Descending
I appreciate your time to reply. I would prefer a slow and steady with an occasional spike that makes people pause and say WOW! I looked at Gilead's chart about a year and some time ago and said that is what i want and i think that is what we have hear plus some.
Thank your sir
Thank you sir.
Jok
So excited for tomorrow morning ...let's hope she delivers
INH, i like your answer as i knew beforehand that there are a tone of variables that would have too be taken into account. The reasoning behind was to give me an idea of what i should hope for and what i am hoping of is a slow steady rise based on positive material events. I believe great things are coming for those that have patience and i have a lot. I have tried timing my trading in the past thinking i was smarter that the market and that has never been a great proposition based on results. getting caught with your pants down around your ankles can be costly. Thanks for your time spent on your volumous answer.
Jok
Anyone have an idea to the upfront cost to make this large quantity?
Could Leo be producing this for clinical sales and not trials. Thanks.
jok, you ask the unanswerable:
Quote:
Would it not be better for a slow 2-3 % rise on a daily basis that goes for a 3-4 week period. would that not be more sustainable over the long haul or is a huge spike in volume and price over a 2-3 day period preferred?
First, it's never a matter of what is preferable. It's always what the market gives.
A point: A matter of preference is very subjective. What the market actually gives is definitive, something one can make a decision on.
Second, a big factor on sustainability is the catalyst. Why is the stock PPS rising?
A simple example: A stock being successfully pumped and dumped could have a tremendous effect on PPS, over days or weeks or months. Inevitably, when the market realizes the pump was smoke not substance, then the rise becomes unsustainable and collapses. Another stock with solid potential improving fundamentals (revenue enhancing, decreased time to market, milestone breakthroughs, buyout candidate) with a rising share price, fast or slow, long or short duration, will hold onto a rational part of the PPS gain. There probably would be price adjustments, but the gains likely sustainable as long as rational to the market.
Third, the market is dynamic. Depends on market participants, shares outstanding, shares in float; sometimes, general market, industry, sector health, etc.
An observed factor: Stocks generally tend to rally more in bull versus bear markets. Gains are generally more sustainable in bull versus bear markets.
Fourth, a lot would depend on one's time horizon.
A simple example: If one has a multi year time horizon and the company continues to outperform expectations, the price will continue rising -- despite temporary pullbacks. Many of us hope this is the case for CTIX. If one has a short term time horizon; then, it is much more critical to time exact short term cycle highs and lows.
One opinion I have concerning the (apparent) ongoing CTIX rise, last week's news story does not explain all the money flows coming into the CTIX trade. I am expecting more inflows, more positive news, a greater rise in PPS, and some market volatility thrown in to boot. Things may become clear when a news story breaks that pulls in lots of retailers and helps to clarify what some of us are assuming presently.
From a technical traders perspective, I learn the condition and sustainability of the trade, hour by hour, day by day, week by week. My preferences make no difference to the market.
jok, the question you ask is a fair one. But, too many variables to give a simple answer. Wish it were simple, it would be easier to profit in the markets.
Preferably the way of the tortoise, slow but steady underlying accumulation for years. Reference biotech multi billion $ monster Gilead Sciences 3 year, 5 bagger chart, touched the weekly 50 DMA all but once. Boring but measure the trend line angle, simply amazing. Don't know if it can be done here since it's still small cap territory. Ideally, it gaps into the stratosphere then sideways before the next leg higher.......................................but Dr Rally knows better than I.
It was just a random thought on my part, would hate to see a big spike in SP over a day or 2 just to see a retrace to old resistance levels. I am just hoping for a slow steady climb supported by events and make anyone afraid to flip shares. Go long and stay strong, i want to retire in 3 years and i believe if have found the ticket to my adventure.
Can't wait for tomorrow.
Thaks
It'll be great to hear about the conclusion of cohort 8 by R&R. I think we will get a PR tomorrow about the filing of B-OM INDA and the R&R presentation info. Anything extra is a bonus.
Quote:
PR sequence - R&R Conf slot is only for 20 min - so Leo will avoid trial related new annoucments. So here is what I think
- tomorrow PR on cohort 8
- next week no PR as short week
- R&R Conf - more details on B results, discussion on P results and cohort 9 schedule, and B-OM
And finally as a surprise some announcement on Big pharma agreement (I hope)
This will be more than even big pharma can do in 3 weeks
As usual.
I agree but it's a rhetorical question since we might go slow and steady for a while and then drop like a rock then spike to a double from whence it dropped.
As long a a the outcome is the same it won't matter. Slow and steady or spike, drop, return. Nobody can control it anyway.
Go CTIX!
Yep, what Miles said.
My 2 cents. The longer we can be steady and base build around LT support lines above $2 the better it will be when the inevitable spike occurs. Why? Because the higher support level will mitigate correction and standard retrace action. If for example, 2.33 - 2.40 area could build strong support then a spike over $3 would would have a higher probability of holding and potentially not retracing to $2 area we are at now. That's what TA does. Looks at probabilities so one can establish a risk/reward scenario.
Holding straight though can work too as long as company performance continues.
There is a style for everyone and money to be made.
CTIX.....Green for Everyone.
The facts were wrong but the story was true. go CTIX!
