Let me tell you somthing, folks. The intelligencia is under estimating the health of the American consumer and the overall consumer demand for goods out in the real world, me thinks.
I realize Black Friday is not exactly representative of overall average consumer demand because it is a one day shopping spree for most, however more than any other year I for one am seeing very robust turnout for this Black Friday compared to previous years. I think if word gets out soon via the media about how well Black Friday is doing this year, it could lead the market higher based upon speculation that underyling demand is actually higher than most economists predicted. Just for investment purposes (thesis), doing my own research on the ground, each year I go out driving to many areas, not to shop but to drive through parking lots and peek into the stores (Walmart, Target, etc) to get a general idea for the consumer strength on Black Fridays and I can tell you that this year is nothing like I have ever seen! I sample various areas throughout the night and obviously different states could have very different turnouts that I cannot see however from what I saw every single Walmart and Target, etc were completely packed. Every single parking lot was completely full and nearby parking lots for other businesses were also full, with people walking in large groups and lines very long distances from where they parked to reach the stores. There were mass tents and people literally camping out in front of stores and all around the area of the stores, at multiple locations. This is crazy, this is really crazy! Just for fun I am going back out to sample other areas and counties but I just wanted to spread the word that the initial demand for black friday looks to be a record breaker at this point. I am sure next week or over the weekend numbers could come in through the media but it could be a blow-out. The retail consumer is back! This may be somewhat off topic but not much to discuss while the market is closed. Imagine if the Cumulus could be sold at Walmart?!!! Forget it, it could be HUGE!! Gigantic Walmarts all across the country are literally packed right now, I peeked into one and there were people literally shoulder to shoulder and police were at the entrance with the Fire Marshall making people wait to go in! Dozens of people were pouring out and each party had TVs, Stereos, clothes, a LOT of PS3s, I am not sure what was up with that but I happened to notice how many PS3s were getting bought! Hmmm, invest in Sony?! Anyway, I wish all a Happy Holiday and get out there and see for yourselves if Black Friday is reviving the consumer in your area!
Cheers!
$RFMK
