CTIX Stock Updates 08/19/2014 18:27:14 $CTIX
What? And leave a future $150 on the table?...Okay!
NR, I really like the partnership side because in my opinion it trumps both institutional investment as well as up-listing. The reason being "revenue". This is the 900 pound gorilla at this point. Of course, if Novartis comes in with a buyout of $200 per share we can all take off for Tahiti!
GO CTIX
CTIX Stock Message Board http://investorshangout.com/Cellceutix-Corpor...TIX-87375/
My thinking is some of this volume is from watchers and fence sitters piling on but the beginning last week and then this week is likely due to info that is available to some and not necessarily leaking but people are putting things together. Top it off with everyone who knows about CTIX has been expecting it to move eventually and got caught off guard.
Regarding your number 2...this could be why they are producing 60+ lbs. of Brilla. MTAs already planned or expected.
BigK do you think 66lbs of Brilacidin
will be enough or should we order some more
?
No more cry baby . 150k shares says we move higher!
Exactly!
Considering market, B-ABSSSI license alone is worth $350 million to $500 million ($700 million is within range but a little on the high side IMO), including $35 million to $100 million upfront.
We now have 6 other 1/2 billion to billion dollar indications/formulations for B:
Brilacidin-OM
Brilacidin-Ocular
Brilacidin-Otic
Gram Negative Bacteria
Candidiasis
Diabetic Foot Infections/Ulcers
That's a lot of Phase 2/3 trials to move, so it would be very nice to license ABSSSI and pay for everything else, including K and P.
Loving this action$$$$
Value of a partnership has too many variables to predict with any degree of certainty. Look at Cubist' purchase of Trius and their post phase 3 drug Tedizolid. B is probably worth more than that but it is not as far along, so its a push. $700 million with a successful P2b? That's around $5 a share fully diluted. I recall posting that number early in the year and it still seems good to me.
B could be worth a lot more following Phase 3 and after trials for other indications. Hard to say which path is better for shareholders. It would be nice to bring K and P forward without dilution, but B could bring a couple Billion by waiting. Not my decision, of course, but a fun one to analyze.
Quote:
This time around for CTIX it could be Buy the Rumour and Buy the News.
Why? Because:
1) Start B-OM Phase 2/3 trial within 60 days
2) Announce MTAs for several indications
3) K Cohort 8 update within days, if no DLT then market may respond positively (for a change) now that the safe dose is well above the anticipated efficacy range.
4) Start of P Phase 2/3 in 3 to 4 months (probably January)
5) Preliminary/final report for B Phase 2b within weeks.
6) If single dose high efficacy, announce BTD and expedited approval and Phase 3 rolling review, or if not designated as breakthrough therapy then start Phase 3 pivotal trial within 6 months
7) Probable B-ABSSSI licensee/partner for the next clinical phase.
NR, this is all very true. Only because you didn't mention it, do you have a target value for partnership(s).
Good analysis. I reckon you called the near term CTIX price action this time again, as so often in the past. The coming days will tell.
Medium term, undoubtedly we are looking at CTIX share price gains on positive news. I reckon there will be an additional share price run-up just on the rumour, ahead of the news.
This time around for CTIX it could be Buy the Rumour and Buy the News. Which if it occurs, will be a welcome change.
Good times ahead for CTIX longs and rally traders I reckon.
Quote:
Where is that Prurisol final report? It was due last Friday per Mr. Ehrlich.
LEO told Wild we would receive an update on ALL our trials by the end of August. I'm pretty sure that includes Kevetrin.
Stay tuned.
I damn sure wouldn't want to be out when LEO announces R&R through a PR and the word Kevetrin is finally uttered by Menon for the first time this year!!.
Quote:
WATCH OUT ' There,s that $1.80 AGAIN?!! The scavengers never quit eom gov
R&R - K update. P21 data. B update. B data.
We're far enough along in both these trials that this is a real possibility.
Expectations driven by sound fundamentals. That's what's moving our SP up IMO.
Leo should be announcing R&R any day. What news will accompany that PR?
We're not done moving up just yet
NR yes to news changes all. Not going to sell a share till major price accumulation, but thats hoe I view this one.
Short-term there is likely to be a pullback. This is the 5th time that RSI has reached 80 since 1/2010. It just does not stay in this range for very long. The day of peak volume or one day later the sp topped in each case. I would love to see us close at $2.10 or above, but the rally weakened a bit today and I'm not sure we will make it. Will we have even more volume tomorrow? If we were to get above $2.10 we would establish a new pattern of higher highs and higher lows. News, of course, changes everything.
We did have two sustained periods of RSI above 70 and sp fluctuating but up nicely over the whole period. See my post on that from yesterday.
Medium term (through year-end) the trend will be up, depending of course on the news of cohort progression, B equivalence, and Prurisol Phase 2/3. Positive reports from any one of these and we are higher at year-end.
Where is that Prurisol final report? It was due last Friday per Mr. Ehrlich.
WATCH OUT ' There,s that $1.80 AGAIN?!! The scavengers never quit eom gov
Thanks for stopping by Tom. Always appreciate your insight.
App.
What? And leave a future $150 on the table?...Okay!
NR, I really like the partnership side because in my opinion it trumps both institutional investment as well as up-listing. The reason being "revenue". This is the 900 pound gorilla at this point. Of course, if Novartis comes in with a buyout of $200 per share we can all take off for Tahiti!
GO CTIX
CTIX Stock Message Board http://investorshangout.com/Cellceutix-Corpor...TIX-87375/
My thinking is some of this volume is from watchers and fence sitters piling on but the beginning last week and then this week is likely due to info that is available to some and not necessarily leaking but people are putting things together. Top it off with everyone who knows about CTIX has been expecting it to move eventually and got caught off guard.
Regarding your number 2...this could be why they are producing 60+ lbs. of Brilla. MTAs already planned or expected.
BigK do you think 66lbs of Brilacidin
will be enough or should we order some more
? No more cry baby
. 150k shares says we move higher! Exactly!
Considering market, B-ABSSSI license alone is worth $350 million to $500 million ($700 million is within range but a little on the high side IMO), including $35 million to $100 million upfront.
We now have 6 other 1/2 billion to billion dollar indications/formulations for B:
Brilacidin-OM
Brilacidin-Ocular
Brilacidin-Otic
Gram Negative Bacteria
Candidiasis
Diabetic Foot Infections/Ulcers
That's a lot of Phase 2/3 trials to move, so it would be very nice to license ABSSSI and pay for everything else, including K and P.
Loving this action$$$$
Value of a partnership has too many variables to predict with any degree of certainty. Look at Cubist' purchase of Trius and their post phase 3 drug Tedizolid. B is probably worth more than that but it is not as far along, so its a push. $700 million with a successful P2b? That's around $5 a share fully diluted. I recall posting that number early in the year and it still seems good to me.
B could be worth a lot more following Phase 3 and after trials for other indications. Hard to say which path is better for shareholders. It would be nice to bring K and P forward without dilution, but B could bring a couple Billion by waiting. Not my decision, of course, but a fun one to analyze.
Quote:
This time around for CTIX it could be Buy the Rumour and Buy the News.
Why? Because:
1) Start B-OM Phase 2/3 trial within 60 days
2) Announce MTAs for several indications
3) K Cohort 8 update within days, if no DLT then market may respond positively (for a change) now that the safe dose is well above the anticipated efficacy range.
4) Start of P Phase 2/3 in 3 to 4 months (probably January)
5) Preliminary/final report for B Phase 2b within weeks.
6) If single dose high efficacy, announce BTD and expedited approval and Phase 3 rolling review, or if not designated as breakthrough therapy then start Phase 3 pivotal trial within 6 months
7) Probable B-ABSSSI licensee/partner for the next clinical phase.
NR, this is all very true. Only because you didn't mention it, do you have a target value for partnership(s).
Good analysis. I reckon you called the near term CTIX price action this time again, as so often in the past. The coming days will tell.
Medium term, undoubtedly we are looking at CTIX share price gains on positive news. I reckon there will be an additional share price run-up just on the rumour, ahead of the news.
This time around for CTIX it could be Buy the Rumour and Buy the News. Which if it occurs, will be a welcome change.
Good times ahead for CTIX longs and rally traders I reckon.
Quote:
Where is that Prurisol final report? It was due last Friday per Mr. Ehrlich.
LEO told Wild we would receive an update on ALL our trials by the end of August. I'm pretty sure that includes Kevetrin.
Stay tuned.
I damn sure wouldn't want to be out when LEO announces R&R through a PR and the word Kevetrin is finally uttered by Menon for the first time this year!!.
Quote:
WATCH OUT ' There,s that $1.80 AGAIN?!! The scavengers never quit eom gov
R&R - K update. P21 data. B update. B data.
We're far enough along in both these trials that this is a real possibility.
Expectations driven by sound fundamentals. That's what's moving our SP up IMO.
Leo should be announcing R&R any day. What news will accompany that PR?
We're not done moving up just yet
NR yes to news changes all. Not going to sell a share till major price accumulation, but thats hoe I view this one.
Short-term there is likely to be a pullback. This is the 5th time that RSI has reached 80 since 1/2010. It just does not stay in this range for very long. The day of peak volume or one day later the sp topped in each case. I would love to see us close at $2.10 or above, but the rally weakened a bit today and I'm not sure we will make it. Will we have even more volume tomorrow? If we were to get above $2.10 we would establish a new pattern of higher highs and higher lows. News, of course, changes everything.
We did have two sustained periods of RSI above 70 and sp fluctuating but up nicely over the whole period. See my post on that from yesterday.
Medium term (through year-end) the trend will be up, depending of course on the news of cohort progression, B equivalence, and Prurisol Phase 2/3. Positive reports from any one of these and we are higher at year-end.
Where is that Prurisol final report? It was due last Friday per Mr. Ehrlich.
WATCH OUT ' There,s that $1.80 AGAIN?!! The scavengers never quit eom gov
Thanks for stopping by Tom. Always appreciate your insight.
App.
