CTIX Alerts 08/17/2014 13:28:24 $CTIX
A double-blind trial does not mean that everything is blinded.
In a nutshell, it means that both the patients and the doctors do not know which drugs the patients are given.
Therefore, If almost all the patients do well, it is easy to conclude that all the drugs tested are almost equally effective even if the trial is a double-blind one.
For more info:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_experiment
Quote:
Please give your honest opinion only.
You want the honest opinion? You can't handle the honest opinion!
Amatuer17
I actually believe that CTIX could be a 100 bagger or better within the next ten years.
Good luck and GOD bless,
George
Dareinian, catching up on my CTIX reading and your post caught my eye:
Quote:
Not too fast please!
I still have quite a bit of buying I'd like to do and sadly very little cash to do so...little chunks, little chunks.
From my experience and observations, I don't think you have too much to worry about concerning CTIX. Our positive assumptions being correct: 1) CTIX has tremendous potential., 2) CTIX has a product pipeline that will envelop decades.
First, it is a common pattern for some companies to have a parabolic rise in price, only to be followed by a parabolic decline. Corning (GLW) has done this several times. This pattern is actually fairly common when looking at charts spanning five to ten years. I don't think CTIX will be of this model. Why? Because, I think it will either become a big pharma or be bought by one. If it develops on its own, the growth phase should last longer than a decade. Again, optomistic CTIX assumptions at play.
Second, most really successful companies have upwards share price runs spanning decades, with corrections from time to time. I think CTIX could be in this category of company. So, take a look at long term charts on Apple, Microsoft, Proctor and Gamble, GE, etc. Once these develop positive trends, there are many good entry points. Course, the biggest gains are often right after lows, or consolidation phases, or while the company is still very small and mostly ignored by the market. Ring any similarities with present day CTIX. Possibly, anyways.
Two points: 1) Timing is important, and 2) Don't give up on good prospects. #1 is self evident. #2 is all too often put on the back burner, but is tied to #1. Many times an investor gets involved with a stock at the wrong time. They become disillusioned and move on to other opportunities. Then, when they are not watching, the stock takes off. If you have done good research, and the stock is not performing as planned, be patient. Unless something changes your fundamental analysis; then, your hypothesis is probably correct, but the timing isn't. Patience.
Let's get back to Kevetrin
Don't be shy.
Tell us all your honest expectations for the current Phase I Kevetrin trial in terms so the percentage of participants classified for efficacy in each of the following classifications
Complete response
Partial response (30% or more) tumor shrinkage
Stable disease
Progressive disease
Remember 40 patients is the project total number of patients for this trial.
Be honest!!!
Good luck and GOD bless,
George
I believe that Daptomycin will have slightly better efficacy with slightly more side effects than high dose Brilacidin at a single dose or Brilacidin given as a three day treatment.
http://cellceutix.com/wp-content/uploads/2012...pr13-2.pdf
Still I believe that Brilacidin could be a blockbuster selling antibiotic.
Good luck and GOD bless,
George
Okay. I still don't see how if it's truly blinded but then again I'm not a scientist.
Brilacidin
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4..._2012_.pdf
Good luck and GOD bless,
George
you are correct. so hold on to your hats!
Very good points!
Agree 100%!
Big K, from your post:
Quote:
Why are we speculating on K when we won't know much more about it for another 9 to 12 months? Why not speculate on B outcomes? Will B be as effective as Dapto but with a single dose? What do you think?
I mostly go with what I am hearing from the company, Leo. He has been very optimistic on B. He has been asked some direct questions concerning B and the competition. His answers have always been on the positive. I think there is little for the company, Leo, to gain by being overly optimistic. So, my answer is Yes. But, as an investor, I will keep an open mind, with a finger on the trade button.
Also, as an investor, I take a whole view of the company and its vast array of potential drug platforms. One reason why, I am especially optimistic long term. But, you are correct in your view of most traders and the market -- short term thinking. Forget that the top of the lineup is on deck and there are no outs.
I was looking for the pretty one, but this will have to do:
smitter, your observations are also key to what is happening and likely to happen:
1) Increased probability for good news in the near term. CTIX has many irons in the fire. From recent company pronouncements, there should be updates in the tunnel. The R & R show should also bring interest (Sept. 8 thru 10th). From prior experience with CTIX, there is a possibility for a run up to the conference, as management has used this opportunity to communicate positive initiatives. From your post:
Quote:
With Sept quickly approaching i am expecting more concrete news in the next 3-4 weeks, and some bigger money is quietly and strategically beating the herd here and accumulating CTIX..
2) As price goes higher on higher volume, more shares are committed at higher prices; which in itself reinforces higher support levels. It also underscores optimism. When new shares are purchased, the buyer is anticipating higher prices in the future. This is especially true when buyers are willing to pay frequently at the ask, sometimes above the current ask--which has been the case with CTIX lately. I find it especially telling whenever I see a transaction above the current Ask, even when the transaction is before or after normal session (in the case of CTIX). From your post:
Quote:
1 Last thing I would like to add. Most of the Vol on Friday occurred above the $1.77 mark.. That is good because new buyers are taking shares that were mostly bought in the $1.60's or lower from older shareholders and now forming a new higher base.
I'm optimistic CTIX will break $2 in the next few weeks; much higher on really good news.
Very simple.
If very few patients had to be treated a second time, it means that all the B arms (including the single dose) are highly efficient.
Even in a double blinded trial, this kind of information cannot be hidden.
Nice recap MT. Thanks!
Thanks for the great post as always. It makes perfect sense.
1 Last thing I would like to add. Most of the Vol on Friday occurred above the $1.77 mark.. That is good because new buyers are taking shares that were mostly bought in the $1.60's or lower from older shareholders and now forming a new higher base. With Sept quickly approaching i am expecting more concrete news in the next 3-4 weeks, and some bigger money is quietly and strategically beating the herd here and accumulating CTIX..
Good Day to you INH!
Regards
Smitter.
How could he have the information giving him optimism if the trial is truly blinded? Maybe he is just optimistic based on their knowledge of Brilla before the trial. Certainly they expected it to be successful.
Anyway...it's all coming together, as they say.
Go CTIX!
It's no secret, I've been sounding the bullish charge for a few weeks now, mostly based on observed trading, all technical.
Looking back at the last few weeks, the charts confirm this bullish activity. Two observations which have kept things in doubt have been low volume days and tight range of trading. It's been a slow, uneven grind upwards, with sticky and rising support.
When I am correct about a significant move, I am often a bit early to the party, because I am on the lookout for early, subtle signals-usually from unusual trade and MM activity.
Most significant moves tend to be fast and furious. Often, what precedes the moves are slow and subtle. Smart money, market participants do not want to give up what they know to technicians. But, sometimes they drop clues. Just before the herd gets wind; then, they will drop pretenses.
It appears to me, CTIX is at a critical technical point, and should be tested at current levels. The testing has actually been underway for days, how much more remains and the outcome are uncertainties. On the bullish side are: 1) Moves higher have been on the greater volume, 2) Support has been sticky and rising. Even when the BID drops, often times the ASK stays solid. Support and resistance have been literally inching up, a penny at a time. and 3) Volume is rising (last few weeks). On the bearish side: 1) Price has been pushing the upper Bollinger band (daily), piercing it Friday. The upper Bollinger band is a natural point of resistance. 2) Stochastics are reaching overbought levels, another natural point for growing resistance, and 3) At each new higher level, there will be new sellers which adds supply. Some sellers are holdouts from prior failed rallies, and some are profit taking from the recent run. There will always be a natural amount of selling.
I think the wild card being played currently is Smart Money. What will they be doing? How will they be playing things? Well, I think they have displayed their desire to accumulate. Bullish. I think they are positioning and not desperate. Careful about reading into every little market move. The trick for Smart Money will be to accumulate without moving the price too far too quickly. So, I anticipate some uneven trading still to come. When the dam breaks, it will be obvious to all, and a bit late for many. This all takes into account, my many assumptions are in play.
I would not fault technicians for taking profit at this level. It is a natural point. I will be sitting on my profits; because, I sense the current run has not ended. I have seen no evidence for this. As is the norm with CTIX, mostly boring, but can go from the freezer to the broiler quickly.
From a fundamental view, things just get better and better. I understand why some will not sell.
I think I've had enough. Go CTIX!
A double-blind trial does not mean that everything is blinded.
In a nutshell, it means that both the patients and the doctors do not know which drugs the patients are given.
Therefore, If almost all the patients do well, it is easy to conclude that all the drugs tested are almost equally effective even if the trial is a double-blind one.
For more info:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_experiment
Quote:
Please give your honest opinion only.
You want the honest opinion? You can't handle the honest opinion!
Amatuer17
I actually believe that CTIX could be a 100 bagger or better within the next ten years.
Good luck and GOD bless,
George
Dareinian, catching up on my CTIX reading and your post caught my eye:
Quote:
Not too fast please!
I still have quite a bit of buying I'd like to do and sadly very little cash to do so...little chunks, little chunks.
From my experience and observations, I don't think you have too much to worry about concerning CTIX. Our positive assumptions being correct: 1) CTIX has tremendous potential., 2) CTIX has a product pipeline that will envelop decades.
First, it is a common pattern for some companies to have a parabolic rise in price, only to be followed by a parabolic decline. Corning (GLW) has done this several times. This pattern is actually fairly common when looking at charts spanning five to ten years. I don't think CTIX will be of this model. Why? Because, I think it will either become a big pharma or be bought by one. If it develops on its own, the growth phase should last longer than a decade. Again, optomistic CTIX assumptions at play.
Second, most really successful companies have upwards share price runs spanning decades, with corrections from time to time. I think CTIX could be in this category of company. So, take a look at long term charts on Apple, Microsoft, Proctor and Gamble, GE, etc. Once these develop positive trends, there are many good entry points. Course, the biggest gains are often right after lows, or consolidation phases, or while the company is still very small and mostly ignored by the market. Ring any similarities with present day CTIX. Possibly, anyways.
Two points: 1) Timing is important, and 2) Don't give up on good prospects. #1 is self evident. #2 is all too often put on the back burner, but is tied to #1. Many times an investor gets involved with a stock at the wrong time. They become disillusioned and move on to other opportunities. Then, when they are not watching, the stock takes off. If you have done good research, and the stock is not performing as planned, be patient. Unless something changes your fundamental analysis; then, your hypothesis is probably correct, but the timing isn't. Patience.
Let's get back to Kevetrin
Don't be shy.
Tell us all your honest expectations for the current Phase I Kevetrin trial in terms so the percentage of participants classified for efficacy in each of the following classifications
Complete response
Partial response (30% or more) tumor shrinkage
Stable disease
Progressive disease
Remember 40 patients is the project total number of patients for this trial.
Be honest!!!
Good luck and GOD bless,
George
I believe that Daptomycin will have slightly better efficacy with slightly more side effects than high dose Brilacidin at a single dose or Brilacidin given as a three day treatment.
http://cellceutix.com/wp-content/uploads/2012...pr13-2.pdf
Still I believe that Brilacidin could be a blockbuster selling antibiotic.
Good luck and GOD bless,
George
Okay. I still don't see how if it's truly blinded but then again I'm not a scientist.
Brilacidin
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4..._2012_.pdf
Good luck and GOD bless,
George
you are correct. so hold on to your hats!
Very good points!
Agree 100%!
Big K, from your post:
Quote:
Why are we speculating on K when we won't know much more about it for another 9 to 12 months? Why not speculate on B outcomes? Will B be as effective as Dapto but with a single dose? What do you think?
I mostly go with what I am hearing from the company, Leo. He has been very optimistic on B. He has been asked some direct questions concerning B and the competition. His answers have always been on the positive. I think there is little for the company, Leo, to gain by being overly optimistic. So, my answer is Yes. But, as an investor, I will keep an open mind, with a finger on the trade button.
Also, as an investor, I take a whole view of the company and its vast array of potential drug platforms. One reason why, I am especially optimistic long term. But, you are correct in your view of most traders and the market -- short term thinking. Forget that the top of the lineup is on deck and there are no outs.
I was looking for the pretty one, but this will have to do:
smitter, your observations are also key to what is happening and likely to happen:
1) Increased probability for good news in the near term. CTIX has many irons in the fire. From recent company pronouncements, there should be updates in the tunnel. The R & R show should also bring interest (Sept. 8 thru 10th). From prior experience with CTIX, there is a possibility for a run up to the conference, as management has used this opportunity to communicate positive initiatives. From your post:
Quote:
With Sept quickly approaching i am expecting more concrete news in the next 3-4 weeks, and some bigger money is quietly and strategically beating the herd here and accumulating CTIX..
2) As price goes higher on higher volume, more shares are committed at higher prices; which in itself reinforces higher support levels. It also underscores optimism. When new shares are purchased, the buyer is anticipating higher prices in the future. This is especially true when buyers are willing to pay frequently at the ask, sometimes above the current ask--which has been the case with CTIX lately. I find it especially telling whenever I see a transaction above the current Ask, even when the transaction is before or after normal session (in the case of CTIX). From your post:
Quote:
1 Last thing I would like to add. Most of the Vol on Friday occurred above the $1.77 mark.. That is good because new buyers are taking shares that were mostly bought in the $1.60's or lower from older shareholders and now forming a new higher base.
I'm optimistic CTIX will break $2 in the next few weeks; much higher on really good news.
Very simple.
If very few patients had to be treated a second time, it means that all the B arms (including the single dose) are highly efficient.
Even in a double blinded trial, this kind of information cannot be hidden.
Nice recap MT. Thanks!
Thanks for the great post as always. It makes perfect sense.
1 Last thing I would like to add. Most of the Vol on Friday occurred above the $1.77 mark.. That is good because new buyers are taking shares that were mostly bought in the $1.60's or lower from older shareholders and now forming a new higher base. With Sept quickly approaching i am expecting more concrete news in the next 3-4 weeks, and some bigger money is quietly and strategically beating the herd here and accumulating CTIX..
Good Day to you INH!
Regards
Smitter.
How could he have the information giving him optimism if the trial is truly blinded? Maybe he is just optimistic based on their knowledge of Brilla before the trial. Certainly they expected it to be successful.
Anyway...it's all coming together, as they say.
Go CTIX!
It's no secret, I've been sounding the bullish charge for a few weeks now, mostly based on observed trading, all technical.
Looking back at the last few weeks, the charts confirm this bullish activity. Two observations which have kept things in doubt have been low volume days and tight range of trading. It's been a slow, uneven grind upwards, with sticky and rising support.
When I am correct about a significant move, I am often a bit early to the party, because I am on the lookout for early, subtle signals-usually from unusual trade and MM activity.
Most significant moves tend to be fast and furious. Often, what precedes the moves are slow and subtle. Smart money, market participants do not want to give up what they know to technicians. But, sometimes they drop clues. Just before the herd gets wind; then, they will drop pretenses.
It appears to me, CTIX is at a critical technical point, and should be tested at current levels. The testing has actually been underway for days, how much more remains and the outcome are uncertainties. On the bullish side are: 1) Moves higher have been on the greater volume, 2) Support has been sticky and rising. Even when the BID drops, often times the ASK stays solid. Support and resistance have been literally inching up, a penny at a time. and 3) Volume is rising (last few weeks). On the bearish side: 1) Price has been pushing the upper Bollinger band (daily), piercing it Friday. The upper Bollinger band is a natural point of resistance. 2) Stochastics are reaching overbought levels, another natural point for growing resistance, and 3) At each new higher level, there will be new sellers which adds supply. Some sellers are holdouts from prior failed rallies, and some are profit taking from the recent run. There will always be a natural amount of selling.
I think the wild card being played currently is Smart Money. What will they be doing? How will they be playing things? Well, I think they have displayed their desire to accumulate. Bullish. I think they are positioning and not desperate. Careful about reading into every little market move. The trick for Smart Money will be to accumulate without moving the price too far too quickly. So, I anticipate some uneven trading still to come. When the dam breaks, it will be obvious to all, and a bit late for many. This all takes into account, my many assumptions are in play.
I would not fault technicians for taking profit at this level. It is a natural point. I will be sitting on my profits; because, I sense the current run has not ended. I have seen no evidence for this. As is the norm with CTIX, mostly boring, but can go from the freezer to the broiler quickly.
From a fundamental view, things just get better and better. I understand why some will not sell.
I think I've had enough. Go CTIX!
