Re: PACER UPDATE: ORDER denying 559 Sealed Motion to Dismiss Invalidity Counterclaims. Signed by Judge Leonard Davis on 10/29/12
Good Post GG. The notion that APPL is not ready to argue anything in this case is beyond naïve knowing who they are represented by. Let’s break this down as to what we know for sure and what we might expect:
1-The Pre-Trial settlement crowd has not made the right bet. As has been opined many times and has become the case, APPL had no real incentive to settle nor did VHC for many very good reasons. Meaning, KL is looking for a very damaging royalty number to APPL and they are never going to just hand over 1%+ to anyone like VHC. In their history, they have been successful in negotiating much lower rates for VERY essential patents, just ask Bill Merritt @ IDCC. Again realize that if AAPL had to pay 1% to the many essential patent holders they would be out of business. While that fact in and of itself does not preclude VHC from deserving 1%+, it does tell us that AAPL will never give up that kind of number without a MAJOR fight. Their GM on Products is their vulnerable spot and we can plan on them protecting it with all they have. VHC and other NPE’s could murder their GM’s.
2-The pre trial Buyout crowd lost their bet as well. This was WAY more far flung for many reasons. However beyond the highly doubtful deployment of defensive capitol, APPL already has spent 2.5 Bil on Rockstar bid and has turned that into a spinoff with nothing directly to do with it. They are much more interested in design patents as they are a CE company than essential wireless radio or infrastructure patents. Further, if they were going to spend billions on non design patents, there are better assets than VHC available right now. RIMM, NOK & EK to name a few.
3-The trial begins, now the question is forward looking, will APPL take this to the jury? Again, I do not see any reason they would not put on their full case. If they can convince ONE juror they have a stronger argument than 51%, they can not lose vs winning. The notion that their legal team is making errors is just plain silly. They have a hand they are dealt and they will win and lose on issues and so will MS. JMO, I do not see any reason they would settle this before taking it to the jury. Further and counter intuitive would be the VHC position. I am not sure they also will have any incentive without AAPL caving to settle. Like MSFT, AAPL takes this to the jury IMO.
4-Buyout as the trail moves forward and after. Well it has always been my belief that this legal process is not about verdicts or law but leverage. Both sides are trying to gain leverage through their standing in the trial to get the other to give more or take less. Since there is no amount of money that can hurt APPL, they will go the distance IMO unless and until KL is willing to accept less. Hence the stalemate we are in.
So to summarize, IMO, it was predictable that pre-trial APPL nor KL would settle and here we are at trial. I think this does go to the jury. For all the posts about 90% surety and the slants about VHC having all the cards, well that is dangerous thinking. APPL is very capable of creating doubt and to underestimate them is a BIG mistake IMO. While I continue to agree with the board that VHC has created a good position to argue from and will most likely create a very positive bias, the jury is who they are, unpredictable. It seems the best thing VHC has in this case is the judge, he clearly knows these patents and VHC and there is no doubt, although he will be impartial, that he may already know where this case is heading. gl to all longs
1-The Pre-Trial settlement crowd has not made the right bet. As has been opined many times and has become the case, APPL had no real incentive to settle nor did VHC for many very good reasons. Meaning, KL is looking for a very damaging royalty number to APPL and they are never going to just hand over 1%+ to anyone like VHC. In their history, they have been successful in negotiating much lower rates for VERY essential patents, just ask Bill Merritt @ IDCC. Again realize that if AAPL had to pay 1% to the many essential patent holders they would be out of business. While that fact in and of itself does not preclude VHC from deserving 1%+, it does tell us that AAPL will never give up that kind of number without a MAJOR fight. Their GM on Products is their vulnerable spot and we can plan on them protecting it with all they have. VHC and other NPE’s could murder their GM’s.
2-The pre trial Buyout crowd lost their bet as well. This was WAY more far flung for many reasons. However beyond the highly doubtful deployment of defensive capitol, APPL already has spent 2.5 Bil on Rockstar bid and has turned that into a spinoff with nothing directly to do with it. They are much more interested in design patents as they are a CE company than essential wireless radio or infrastructure patents. Further, if they were going to spend billions on non design patents, there are better assets than VHC available right now. RIMM, NOK & EK to name a few.
3-The trial begins, now the question is forward looking, will APPL take this to the jury? Again, I do not see any reason they would not put on their full case. If they can convince ONE juror they have a stronger argument than 51%, they can not lose vs winning. The notion that their legal team is making errors is just plain silly. They have a hand they are dealt and they will win and lose on issues and so will MS. JMO, I do not see any reason they would settle this before taking it to the jury. Further and counter intuitive would be the VHC position. I am not sure they also will have any incentive without AAPL caving to settle. Like MSFT, AAPL takes this to the jury IMO.
4-Buyout as the trail moves forward and after. Well it has always been my belief that this legal process is not about verdicts or law but leverage. Both sides are trying to gain leverage through their standing in the trial to get the other to give more or take less. Since there is no amount of money that can hurt APPL, they will go the distance IMO unless and until KL is willing to accept less. Hence the stalemate we are in.
So to summarize, IMO, it was predictable that pre-trial APPL nor KL would settle and here we are at trial. I think this does go to the jury. For all the posts about 90% surety and the slants about VHC having all the cards, well that is dangerous thinking. APPL is very capable of creating doubt and to underestimate them is a BIG mistake IMO. While I continue to agree with the board that VHC has created a good position to argue from and will most likely create a very positive bias, the jury is who they are, unpredictable. It seems the best thing VHC has in this case is the judge, he clearly knows these patents and VHC and there is no doubt, although he will be impartial, that he may already know where this case is heading. gl to all longs
GO VHC !
