70$ a Share "Let’s Dream a Little Dream"
Post# of 56323
Posted On: 06/06/2014 6:27:27 PM
FITX PPS - Let’s Dream a Little Dream
The 70$ pps talk has me thinking, so I’ve borrowed and re-posted some stuff. (It's all dreaming, so be easy on me.)
Which of the following is “REALISTIC,” and what is “PIPE DREAM?”
1.) Industry pioneer and leader... (ie MSFT, APPL) REALISTIC!
2.) Share buyback! REALISTIC!
3.) Rescheduling, legalization REALISTIC (and a little of PIPE DREAM, because total legalization is gonna take forever - 10 years or more)
4.) Consolidation of the sector with FITX being the consolidator and acquiring many other cos and competitors along the way REALISTIC!
5.) R&D = Ridiculous new medicines = FITX is now a major MMJ R&D and Pharma co REALISTIC, but a stretch for the near-term.
6.) HEMP Tech... Don't even get me started.... REALISTIC
7.) Sector importance will grow and MMJ and HEMP will become as big a part of our everyday lives as cellphones and the Internet.... FITX will be the MSFT or APPL of the sector..... REALISTIC (and a little of PIPE DREAM) Realistic in that it may the APPL of the SECTOR, but never that big, pipe dream in that this may take more than a decade to realize.
Who is FITX's competitor as a producer, researcher, hemp integrator, and conduit to the pharmacy world all in one? I know growers exist, but I don't see them as being as efficient and well run. FITX's technology and factory style production should make TWEED's facility look backward in comparison. As far as the rest goes FITX is alone with that combination. PHOT tried to be something akin to that, but that is not going well now.
OLDER re-post
What should a stock be worth that has the “largest and most advanced” legal marijuana production facility in the world, a “$20 million facility will churn out pot like other factories churn out aspirin?” A company where $5 BILLION in sales is just a start, and the demand will only grow in the coming years, and may never decline? (Think about that $5 billion in sales within a year or two!) If trends continue, legally and socially, $25 billion in sales will be reached in 7 - 10 years with the addition of new facilities (my estimate).
What is a company worth that is at the forefront of all the aspects of a breakout industry about to take North America by storm? An industry that will produce more wealth than the tobacco industry did, once the medical and recreational laws settle out (my hypothesis).
What is a company worth that appoints the best talent it can attract in all the major areas of (its) business? What if that company goes out if its way to avoid the legal pitfalls of it competitors? What if that company had no real competitors? What if that company is led by a team with the vision to do the right things, the right way? (Remember Warren Buffet says to buy a stock based on management more than anything else.)
The commodity of marijuana is going to be so lucrative that it will create billionaires by the tens, and millionaires by the thousands (sounds crazy, right). I think it will need to be put on an exchange or have one created for it. Producers that do it right will reap the rewards and FITX is set up for just that.
So…
The below projection goes right out the window. I guess that if everything falls in place even close to what is expected/planned, if just half of it happens add a zero to the pps/earnings numbers below. Let’s also remember that pps is driven by emotion, and what people believe the future potential is. Yep, multiply by 10. (Give it 4 - 7 years.)
Even OLDER re-post
Than there’s this:
(stolen from from privateequityguru)
If FITX produces just 100,000 pounds of MJ in it's first full year....less than 1/10 (one tenth) of the 1.3 million pounds.....at a sales price of just $2,500 per pound...the total revenue will be $250,000,000 (two hundred and fifty million dollars)....at a 60-70% profit margin, that will be a profit of $150,000,000 to $200,000,000 (one hundred and fifty million dollars to two hundred million dollars). (PLEASE NOT THAT THE 25% THAT GOES TO THE LAKESHORE FACILITY LENDER IS NOT DEDUCTED.)
But assuming the 60% holds true as we ramp up, FITX total authorized share count of 3,500,000,000.....the earnings ($150,000,000 divided by 3,500,000,000) per share would be $0.043 (four point three cents) per share. Then, with a modest P/E (price / earnings) ratio of:
PE PPS
25 $1.07 (25 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
30 $1.29 (30 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
35 $1.50 (35 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
40 $1.72 (40 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
45 $1.93 (45 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
50 $2.15 (50 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
55 $2.36 (55 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
60 $2.58 (60 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
That is at 10% of the proposed production, without a share repurchase, without adding in HEMP Tech or the supplemental products....
The 70$ pps talk has me thinking, so I’ve borrowed and re-posted some stuff. (It's all dreaming, so be easy on me.)
Which of the following is “REALISTIC,” and what is “PIPE DREAM?”
1.) Industry pioneer and leader... (ie MSFT, APPL) REALISTIC!
2.) Share buyback! REALISTIC!
3.) Rescheduling, legalization REALISTIC (and a little of PIPE DREAM, because total legalization is gonna take forever - 10 years or more)
4.) Consolidation of the sector with FITX being the consolidator and acquiring many other cos and competitors along the way REALISTIC!
5.) R&D = Ridiculous new medicines = FITX is now a major MMJ R&D and Pharma co REALISTIC, but a stretch for the near-term.
6.) HEMP Tech... Don't even get me started.... REALISTIC
7.) Sector importance will grow and MMJ and HEMP will become as big a part of our everyday lives as cellphones and the Internet.... FITX will be the MSFT or APPL of the sector..... REALISTIC (and a little of PIPE DREAM) Realistic in that it may the APPL of the SECTOR, but never that big, pipe dream in that this may take more than a decade to realize.
Who is FITX's competitor as a producer, researcher, hemp integrator, and conduit to the pharmacy world all in one? I know growers exist, but I don't see them as being as efficient and well run. FITX's technology and factory style production should make TWEED's facility look backward in comparison. As far as the rest goes FITX is alone with that combination. PHOT tried to be something akin to that, but that is not going well now.
OLDER re-post
What should a stock be worth that has the “largest and most advanced” legal marijuana production facility in the world, a “$20 million facility will churn out pot like other factories churn out aspirin?” A company where $5 BILLION in sales is just a start, and the demand will only grow in the coming years, and may never decline? (Think about that $5 billion in sales within a year or two!) If trends continue, legally and socially, $25 billion in sales will be reached in 7 - 10 years with the addition of new facilities (my estimate).
What is a company worth that is at the forefront of all the aspects of a breakout industry about to take North America by storm? An industry that will produce more wealth than the tobacco industry did, once the medical and recreational laws settle out (my hypothesis).
What is a company worth that appoints the best talent it can attract in all the major areas of (its) business? What if that company goes out if its way to avoid the legal pitfalls of it competitors? What if that company had no real competitors? What if that company is led by a team with the vision to do the right things, the right way? (Remember Warren Buffet says to buy a stock based on management more than anything else.)
The commodity of marijuana is going to be so lucrative that it will create billionaires by the tens, and millionaires by the thousands (sounds crazy, right). I think it will need to be put on an exchange or have one created for it. Producers that do it right will reap the rewards and FITX is set up for just that.
So…
The below projection goes right out the window. I guess that if everything falls in place even close to what is expected/planned, if just half of it happens add a zero to the pps/earnings numbers below. Let’s also remember that pps is driven by emotion, and what people believe the future potential is. Yep, multiply by 10. (Give it 4 - 7 years.)
Even OLDER re-post
Than there’s this:
(stolen from from privateequityguru)
If FITX produces just 100,000 pounds of MJ in it's first full year....less than 1/10 (one tenth) of the 1.3 million pounds.....at a sales price of just $2,500 per pound...the total revenue will be $250,000,000 (two hundred and fifty million dollars)....at a 60-70% profit margin, that will be a profit of $150,000,000 to $200,000,000 (one hundred and fifty million dollars to two hundred million dollars). (PLEASE NOT THAT THE 25% THAT GOES TO THE LAKESHORE FACILITY LENDER IS NOT DEDUCTED.)
But assuming the 60% holds true as we ramp up, FITX total authorized share count of 3,500,000,000.....the earnings ($150,000,000 divided by 3,500,000,000) per share would be $0.043 (four point three cents) per share. Then, with a modest P/E (price / earnings) ratio of:
PE PPS
25 $1.07 (25 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
30 $1.29 (30 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
35 $1.50 (35 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
40 $1.72 (40 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
45 $1.93 (45 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
50 $2.15 (50 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
55 $2.36 (55 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
60 $2.58 (60 P/E times $0.043 earnings per share).
That is at 10% of the proposed production, without a share repurchase, without adding in HEMP Tech or the supplemental products....
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