Floatable, I have not been a shareholder for qu
Post# of 11899
Posted On: 05/01/2014 1:46:07 PM
Re: Floatable1 #11840
Floatable,
I have not been a shareholder for quite some time now and I have not been trading the stock or looking to enter into any kind of position in RFMK. I have also stayed away though I did very much enjoy to see an actual audited 10K filing in the SEC Edgar database. I think that was fundamentally a HUGE step in the right direction for shareholders. I still remain on the sidelines and I am not sure that I would ever own any shares ever again in the OTC or PK marketplace because of all the corruption, manipulation and shady shenanigans. Over the last few months I have been actively trading various ETF's, commodities and currencies and I will likely just stick to those markets for the foreseeable future.
I still am intrigued with the emerging electronic cigarette industry and it's potential future success in converting the world's tar cig smokers into vapers. Me thinks it is a much healthier alternative to smoking, if the individual is going to smoke in the first place. It would be enjoyable to witness at least one publicly trading ecig company becoming a world-wide success and moving onto the big exchanges, and I think it would also be a very positive step in the right direction in regards to healthy living for society in general. The world has been in the unhealthy grip of tobacco for hundreds of years, now maybe is the time for people to begin shunning tar cigs and move on to healthier alternatives or quitting smoking altogether. I do not believe the FDA or the government should impose it's own restrictions and rules on it. I believe the people should have the ultimate say in how they treat their own bodies, but I also think that over time, people will see how much more clean and healthy it is vaping as opposed to smoking combustible cancer-causing products.
Who knows as to the future performance of management here in RFMK but I think the company itself has a lot of future potential and the industry seems to be growing quite well. As for the stock, today is May 1rst and so there is the new bid requirements (must keep a bid of $0.01 at close for at least one day out of the last 30 days) and the stock is currently at sub-penny price levels, therefore I do not see that the stock is going to be able to meet the new requirement in time. We will see how much leeway the market regulators give to RFMK stock in regards to this new bid rule. If it does fall back down to the Pink Sheets then it will still remain a fully reporting company it will just not have the advantage of trading on a more liquid and higher quality market exchange.
The problem with making the $0.01 requirement whilst allowing the ever-growing O/S to remain at 3.5 Billion shares is that the market cap would need to be about $35 Million, which IMO seems to be rather high for RFMK based on the financials in the 10K filing and audited financials. Even if the market assumes that revenues will eventually come via selling the new product and it assumes a 35 P/E multiple on those earnings, the company would still need to make about $1,000,000 in pure profit in order to justify a share price of $0.01 with so many shares in the O/S (~3.5B). In order for the company to make about $1M in profits over a 12 month period, they would likely need to make at least $2M over the same period, which would entail making about $166k per month. Assuming a price of about $100 per unit, they would need to sell about 1,660 units per month, consistently. That means selling about 55 units per day; at the very least.
IMO it is possible to achieve this level of performance and these results eventually, but it would have to occur obviously AFTER the new product was officially launched, whenever that is going to take place, and also only after the production and supply chain was established and could be ramped up over time. Also just having a well-oiled supply and distribution chain is not enough, a gigantic marketing campaign would need to be established nation-wide in order to consistently expose the existence of the product to so many people such that so many units were able to be sold consistently into the market. Such a gigantic marketing campaign not only takes a long time to get momentum going but also requires significant amounts of money. RFMK balance sheet is at least rid of most of the debt it once had, but the company is still very low on liquid funds for an operating budget. There is $50,000 per month from IronRidge but it appears about $40,000 goes to monthly expenses and there are not even any costs yet attributable to mass production, supply chain and marketing efforts (that is where most of the money burn comes into play). Also all of that funding necessitates further dilution which typically hurts the stock price and makes it more difficult to keep a $0.01 bid on the stock.
Overall, my opinion is that the company itself has a lot of potential for future growth, but if it is to be successful, a lot of money will need to still be spent on growth and expansion and all of that would happen over vast periods of time. I believe that the short term traders looking to make quick gains in RFMK stock are entering into a very risky venture. The stock itself is still almost triple the 200 DMA and even the current valuation appears to be wishful thinking at best.
I think RFMK followers and investors should know a lot more once we see that the new product has officially launched and we begin getting reviews. Until then, the story is mostly all just forward looking statements and speculation of the future potential.
Do or do not, there is no try.
$RFMK
I have not been a shareholder for quite some time now and I have not been trading the stock or looking to enter into any kind of position in RFMK. I have also stayed away though I did very much enjoy to see an actual audited 10K filing in the SEC Edgar database. I think that was fundamentally a HUGE step in the right direction for shareholders. I still remain on the sidelines and I am not sure that I would ever own any shares ever again in the OTC or PK marketplace because of all the corruption, manipulation and shady shenanigans. Over the last few months I have been actively trading various ETF's, commodities and currencies and I will likely just stick to those markets for the foreseeable future.
I still am intrigued with the emerging electronic cigarette industry and it's potential future success in converting the world's tar cig smokers into vapers. Me thinks it is a much healthier alternative to smoking, if the individual is going to smoke in the first place. It would be enjoyable to witness at least one publicly trading ecig company becoming a world-wide success and moving onto the big exchanges, and I think it would also be a very positive step in the right direction in regards to healthy living for society in general. The world has been in the unhealthy grip of tobacco for hundreds of years, now maybe is the time for people to begin shunning tar cigs and move on to healthier alternatives or quitting smoking altogether. I do not believe the FDA or the government should impose it's own restrictions and rules on it. I believe the people should have the ultimate say in how they treat their own bodies, but I also think that over time, people will see how much more clean and healthy it is vaping as opposed to smoking combustible cancer-causing products.
Who knows as to the future performance of management here in RFMK but I think the company itself has a lot of future potential and the industry seems to be growing quite well. As for the stock, today is May 1rst and so there is the new bid requirements (must keep a bid of $0.01 at close for at least one day out of the last 30 days) and the stock is currently at sub-penny price levels, therefore I do not see that the stock is going to be able to meet the new requirement in time. We will see how much leeway the market regulators give to RFMK stock in regards to this new bid rule. If it does fall back down to the Pink Sheets then it will still remain a fully reporting company it will just not have the advantage of trading on a more liquid and higher quality market exchange.
The problem with making the $0.01 requirement whilst allowing the ever-growing O/S to remain at 3.5 Billion shares is that the market cap would need to be about $35 Million, which IMO seems to be rather high for RFMK based on the financials in the 10K filing and audited financials. Even if the market assumes that revenues will eventually come via selling the new product and it assumes a 35 P/E multiple on those earnings, the company would still need to make about $1,000,000 in pure profit in order to justify a share price of $0.01 with so many shares in the O/S (~3.5B). In order for the company to make about $1M in profits over a 12 month period, they would likely need to make at least $2M over the same period, which would entail making about $166k per month. Assuming a price of about $100 per unit, they would need to sell about 1,660 units per month, consistently. That means selling about 55 units per day; at the very least.
IMO it is possible to achieve this level of performance and these results eventually, but it would have to occur obviously AFTER the new product was officially launched, whenever that is going to take place, and also only after the production and supply chain was established and could be ramped up over time. Also just having a well-oiled supply and distribution chain is not enough, a gigantic marketing campaign would need to be established nation-wide in order to consistently expose the existence of the product to so many people such that so many units were able to be sold consistently into the market. Such a gigantic marketing campaign not only takes a long time to get momentum going but also requires significant amounts of money. RFMK balance sheet is at least rid of most of the debt it once had, but the company is still very low on liquid funds for an operating budget. There is $50,000 per month from IronRidge but it appears about $40,000 goes to monthly expenses and there are not even any costs yet attributable to mass production, supply chain and marketing efforts (that is where most of the money burn comes into play). Also all of that funding necessitates further dilution which typically hurts the stock price and makes it more difficult to keep a $0.01 bid on the stock.
Overall, my opinion is that the company itself has a lot of potential for future growth, but if it is to be successful, a lot of money will need to still be spent on growth and expansion and all of that would happen over vast periods of time. I believe that the short term traders looking to make quick gains in RFMK stock are entering into a very risky venture. The stock itself is still almost triple the 200 DMA and even the current valuation appears to be wishful thinking at best.
I think RFMK followers and investors should know a lot more once we see that the new product has officially launched and we begin getting reviews. Until then, the story is mostly all just forward looking statements and speculation of the future potential.
Do or do not, there is no try.
$RFMK
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