You make a great observation about keeping expecta
Post# of 56324
Posted On: 04/29/2014 2:14:45 PM
You make a great observation about keeping expectations realistic. You are correct: the mere granting of a license is not revenue and therefore by itself does not necessarily warrant higher pps. But that is par for the course over here in pennyland: pps moves more on hype than news.
However, volatillity is directly tied to certainty vs. uncertainty. The more uncertainty, the more volatility due to the fact that there is a wider range of what could be considered a "fair" price. Differing opinions on what is "fair" pps is what makes a market, after all.
The license should create a new trading range higher than the current trading range due to the fact that the license is the single greatest factor in determining whether future revenues are a certainty or an uncertainty. In other words, the reality of a license justifies a higher multiple.
Once the license is granted, I expect a gap up to a new higher range, followed by a few dramatic tests/sell-offs to make sure it really is a new higher range. These tests could take awhile, since no revenues will have been reported yet. Once revenues start coming in, then the pps should start acting more like a "normal" stock, not a "penny" stock, with the post-license range as a baseline.
However, volatillity is directly tied to certainty vs. uncertainty. The more uncertainty, the more volatility due to the fact that there is a wider range of what could be considered a "fair" price. Differing opinions on what is "fair" pps is what makes a market, after all.
The license should create a new trading range higher than the current trading range due to the fact that the license is the single greatest factor in determining whether future revenues are a certainty or an uncertainty. In other words, the reality of a license justifies a higher multiple.
Once the license is granted, I expect a gap up to a new higher range, followed by a few dramatic tests/sell-offs to make sure it really is a new higher range. These tests could take awhile, since no revenues will have been reported yet. Once revenues start coming in, then the pps should start acting more like a "normal" stock, not a "penny" stock, with the post-license range as a baseline.
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