Simple Math for 2015 guidance Q4 2013 and Q1
Post# of 640
Posted On: 04/25/2014 10:30:07 PM
Simple Math for 2015 guidance
Q4 2013 and Q1 2013 both lost over $5,000,000. So I feel it is safe to say RIBT loses $5,000,000 in Q1 2014. H&N might hold it to $4,000,000. Q2 lost about $2,000,000 in 2013. With H&N kicking in and Belt saying Q2 will be cash flow even for the state side, I'll be generous in saying a lost of $1,000,000 for Q2.
Short is sticking to his $6,000,000 EBIDTA in 2014. Since $4,000,000 of that is from Brazil and Alothon gets 49% of that call it a total of $4,000,000 for 2014.
If we are down $5,000,000 the first half, RBT must do $9,000,000 EBIDTA in the last half to reach Short's target that he stuck to at the CC, and he has NEVER given guidance before the S-1.
With what is known, multiply the $9,000,000 times two to get 2015 guidance, or $18,000,000. Even if we got 8,000,000 shares in 2015, not counting warrants, put a 20 PE on it and we got a $2.25 per share profit and a $45 stock.
What can go wrong is that Short padded estimates to get the Maxim deal. Gnus said it is really vetted by Maxim, even though Maxim missed the $800,000 BK expired bonus bull crap It would be nice if Short put out the guidance, not me.
OK, we have many more shares as we are voting for maybe another 10,000,000. But, that will be viewed as a capital raise for a rice bran oil plant and the street will take that into account.
Any way I look at it, BUY BUY BUY.
Thoughts or comments?
Q4 2013 and Q1 2013 both lost over $5,000,000. So I feel it is safe to say RIBT loses $5,000,000 in Q1 2014. H&N might hold it to $4,000,000. Q2 lost about $2,000,000 in 2013. With H&N kicking in and Belt saying Q2 will be cash flow even for the state side, I'll be generous in saying a lost of $1,000,000 for Q2.
Short is sticking to his $6,000,000 EBIDTA in 2014. Since $4,000,000 of that is from Brazil and Alothon gets 49% of that call it a total of $4,000,000 for 2014.
If we are down $5,000,000 the first half, RBT must do $9,000,000 EBIDTA in the last half to reach Short's target that he stuck to at the CC, and he has NEVER given guidance before the S-1.
With what is known, multiply the $9,000,000 times two to get 2015 guidance, or $18,000,000. Even if we got 8,000,000 shares in 2015, not counting warrants, put a 20 PE on it and we got a $2.25 per share profit and a $45 stock.
What can go wrong is that Short padded estimates to get the Maxim deal. Gnus said it is really vetted by Maxim, even though Maxim missed the $800,000 BK expired bonus bull crap It would be nice if Short put out the guidance, not me.
OK, we have many more shares as we are voting for maybe another 10,000,000. But, that will be viewed as a capital raise for a rice bran oil plant and the street will take that into account.
Any way I look at it, BUY BUY BUY.
Thoughts or comments?
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