Looks like a standard trend following system. Eyeb

Looks like a standard trend following system. Eyeballing TECO it's obvious that there has been a downtrend on the daily, so there is nothing prophetic about it. The countertrend move is probably referring to the MACD cross which I talked about a week ago and perhaps a stretch in the bollinger bands.

When I first started trading I cut my teeth on turtle trading systems on exchange traded funds. In the system I was using there was a concept of average true range, which is a calculation where you compute what the trading range over the past X amount of days and extrapolate it forward.

This would have me buying ETF's as they went up in accordance with an average true range calculation. Conversely, it would have me shorting ETF's as they went down. The premise is that you position your trade in accordance with the trend and you never know what the top or the bottom is so you just keep going long the high or shorting the low.

If trend reversed on you could exit the position completely, or some folks like to start backing out of the trade by taking a reverse position incrementally one step at a time. The big problem with this strategy is that on gap reversals you can get absolutely face crushed.

It works best if you have a very liquid and continuous market like futures, but since these systems do not forecast bottoms and tops and actually keep betting into them, they can get slammed on gap reversals of stocks and other regular trading hours instruments. As long as you weight your positions accordingly it should be fine in theory but then there's also been the case of high correlation in liquid securities.

It also matters what time frame you choose for your trend following approach. If you choose the daily time frame, TECO looks like it is having a small bounce inside of a bigger downtrend. However, if you look at the weekly time frame, TECO is trading above the 200 week moving average, which indicates an uptrend.

If you really want to get into the nuts and bolts of trend following systems start taking a look at material by Michael Covel and Turtle Trading. There are even software packages that you can puchase but take a look at those educational resources first.