Exactly right, Guts. The Hangout is the only board to find honest and objective opinions on Scrips.
Though we are just a tad bias toward SCRC, this core group of investors is wise enough to follow the bread crumbs the company has dropped in the form of the Q&A, PRs, and the subsequent events expressed in the 10K to understand where the company is headed. Indeed, here are 8 milestones that I expect by the end of the year, which when met will justify my EOY eps estimates below:
1. Cash flow positive (I expect SCRC to reach this milestone before the end of Q2)
2. Retirement of all the toxic convertible notes as well as the toxic inventory held by Ironridge and noteholders with remaining shares (end of May, probably sooner)
3. $1M in revenues from Main Ave Pharmacy (I expect this to occur in Q3, maybe $2M by EOY; remember, we receive 97% of revenues, minus commissions, expenses, and the monthly draw; in my opinion, each $1 million in revenues from this business will be worth between $.40 and $.45 to the pps)
4. RapiMeds Hong Kong (I anticipate the first order to ship in Q2 and at least one more order in Q3 and Q4; other than $200K for the first order, however, I have no idea how much revenue Scrips will receive this year from Hong Kong; I would not be surprised if the EOY number is well above $500K)
5. PIMD revenues (per the 10K, this will start ramping up in June; SCRC restructured its agreement with PIMD and is now entitled to merely 45% of the revenues; with the Class 2-5 licenses for FL and PN in hand, perhaps one of the main reasons I invested in SCRC will prove to be a good decision in the second half of the year, but IMHO the company needs to regain its 90% stake for this to happen and put more focus on this very promising business model; at this time, however, we have no bread crumbs to predict PIMD revenues)
6. RapiMeds China (I anticipate approval, orders, and actual revenues from China this summer, possibly $1 million by the end of summer and over $2 million by EOY with a successful launch)
7. WholesaleRx (for these increasing revenues to become more than a yawn to SCRC investors and folks waiting on the sidelines, WRx must obtain the class 2 license AND SCRC must acquire a much larger stake in this little gem, the former will have an almost immediate impact on the pps; FWIW, I have shared my opinions with management; I have many opinions)
8. RapiMeds US, Canada, other markets, and Pharma Hub (I do not believe 2014 will be the year for these revenue streams, but I do anticipate heavy momentum from these potential revenue streams heading into 2015, as well as one or two additional foreign markets added to the potentially endless opportunities for RapiMeds; indeed, despite that we are all now focused on the compounding pharmacy flavor of the day, let's not forget that SCRC is not a one-trick pony and the company has many revenue streams, each of which is equally capable of delivering strong returns and moving SCRC to the NASDAQ; I have added this as the last milestone merely because I expect these potential revenues to be factored in to forward projections to justify higher PE ratios; indeed, these ratios will see significant spikes if the company demonstrates a successful launch in Asia)
EOY EPS between $.02 and $.05 (-$.02 Q1, $.01 Q2, $.01-.02 Q3, $.02-.04 Q4). I realize my projected eps range is too wide, but due to the unknowns expressed above, this is the best I can do. Just hitting $.02 by the end of the year with a clear sign of accelerated triple-digit earnings growth moving into 2015 will be sufficient to reward SCRC with PE multiples much higher than 20. I can provide over 50 stocks trading at PE multiples well above 20, many above 50.
Good luck to all the patient and loyal longs!
Bsav88atty
Though we are just a tad bias toward SCRC, this core group of investors is wise enough to follow the bread crumbs the company has dropped in the form of the Q&A, PRs, and the subsequent events expressed in the 10K to understand where the company is headed. Indeed, here are 8 milestones that I expect by the end of the year, which when met will justify my EOY eps estimates below:
1. Cash flow positive (I expect SCRC to reach this milestone before the end of Q2)
2. Retirement of all the toxic convertible notes as well as the toxic inventory held by Ironridge and noteholders with remaining shares (end of May, probably sooner)
3. $1M in revenues from Main Ave Pharmacy (I expect this to occur in Q3, maybe $2M by EOY; remember, we receive 97% of revenues, minus commissions, expenses, and the monthly draw; in my opinion, each $1 million in revenues from this business will be worth between $.40 and $.45 to the pps)
4. RapiMeds Hong Kong (I anticipate the first order to ship in Q2 and at least one more order in Q3 and Q4; other than $200K for the first order, however, I have no idea how much revenue Scrips will receive this year from Hong Kong; I would not be surprised if the EOY number is well above $500K)
5. PIMD revenues (per the 10K, this will start ramping up in June; SCRC restructured its agreement with PIMD and is now entitled to merely 45% of the revenues; with the Class 2-5 licenses for FL and PN in hand, perhaps one of the main reasons I invested in SCRC will prove to be a good decision in the second half of the year, but IMHO the company needs to regain its 90% stake for this to happen and put more focus on this very promising business model; at this time, however, we have no bread crumbs to predict PIMD revenues)
6. RapiMeds China (I anticipate approval, orders, and actual revenues from China this summer, possibly $1 million by the end of summer and over $2 million by EOY with a successful launch)
7. WholesaleRx (for these increasing revenues to become more than a yawn to SCRC investors and folks waiting on the sidelines, WRx must obtain the class 2 license AND SCRC must acquire a much larger stake in this little gem, the former will have an almost immediate impact on the pps; FWIW, I have shared my opinions with management; I have many opinions)
8. RapiMeds US, Canada, other markets, and Pharma Hub (I do not believe 2014 will be the year for these revenue streams, but I do anticipate heavy momentum from these potential revenue streams heading into 2015, as well as one or two additional foreign markets added to the potentially endless opportunities for RapiMeds; indeed, despite that we are all now focused on the compounding pharmacy flavor of the day, let's not forget that SCRC is not a one-trick pony and the company has many revenue streams, each of which is equally capable of delivering strong returns and moving SCRC to the NASDAQ; I have added this as the last milestone merely because I expect these potential revenues to be factored in to forward projections to justify higher PE ratios; indeed, these ratios will see significant spikes if the company demonstrates a successful launch in Asia)
EOY EPS between $.02 and $.05 (-$.02 Q1, $.01 Q2, $.01-.02 Q3, $.02-.04 Q4). I realize my projected eps range is too wide, but due to the unknowns expressed above, this is the best I can do. Just hitting $.02 by the end of the year with a clear sign of accelerated triple-digit earnings growth moving into 2015 will be sufficient to reward SCRC with PE multiples much higher than 20. I can provide over 50 stocks trading at PE multiples well above 20, many above 50.
Good luck to all the patient and loyal longs!
Bsav88atty
