REYKJAVIK, Iceland, April 23, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) continued to rise in March. This is the ninth consecutive rise of the CLI. The indicator published by independent advisory company Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend. The indicator points to continued growth in the months ahead.
Growth prospects for 2014 remain unchanged since March. There are indications of a pickup in domestic demand and growth in tourist arrivals remains strong. Also fish catches may have bottomed following the collapse in capelin catches.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For March four of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. Also, four of the six components rise on the previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The March value rises by 0.4 percent on the month to 103.0. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. September. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend.
| Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2013-2014 | ||||
| Change in % | Indication | |||
| Index | on month | YOY | for month | |
| 2013 | ||||
| March | 101.6 | 0.2% | 0.6% | Sept. |
| April | 101.7 | 0.0% | 0.4% | Oct. |
| May | 101.5 | -0.1% | 0.1% | Nov. |
| June | 101.4 | -0.2% | -0.3% | Dec. |
| July | 101.5 | 0.1% | -0.5% | Jan. 2014 |
| August | 101.7 | 0.2% | -0.3% | Feb. |
| September | 102.0 | 0.3% | 0.1% | March |
| October | 102.2 | 0.2% | 0.6% | April |
| November | 102.2 | 0.0% | 0.9% | May |
| December | 102.2 | 0.0% | 1.0% | June |
| 2014 | ||||
| January | 102.3 | 0.1% | 1.0% | July |
| February | 102.6 | 0.3% | 1.1% | August |
| March | 103.0 | 0.4% | 1.4% | Sept. |
The April Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on May 20, 2014.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is
