Since yesterday was a bit discouraging, it seems worthwhile to pass along a happy-thought about the revenue potential of the Bayano concession. They gave us an estimate of 40M in revenue over three years of working a 1000 hectare section of HIMR's 2400 hectare concession. In the LOI, they estimated that 20K trees is about 10M board feet, and in one of the PRs that 1000 hectare section was estimated to have about 50K submerged trees. And so, 25M board feet is a reasonable estimate of the potential for that 1000 hectare section. If we take 40M divided by 25M, we get 1.6. So, a 40M revenue estimate on 25M board feet would have to assume $1.60 per board foot, which we know is too low as an average. To me it looks like they low balled that estimate and if the 50K trees -> 25M board feet estimate is realistic, then the real revenue potential over the next three years for this concession is over 100M. IF Tigerlynk performs as hoped and we actually do extract that fast.
Is the 50K trees and 25M board feet estimates realistic? Those estimates may have come from a third party - Ardan International. I think it might have been Fox who said he found a document wherein Ardan gave the same numbers some time earlier. Ardan's registry documents are in Spanish, so I didn't try to read them. If those estimates do come from Ardan's assessment, that would mean they come from an independent third party, who as a private company doesn't play pinky-stock games and can be trusted. On the other hand, Ardan was angling in vain for carbon credit money and had an incentive to skew the numbers high. They may have been playing games of there own.
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