Per Celts' opinion, on 3/17/14 we started with about 5M shares of toxic inventory. If we apply his formula to reduce that inventory by half of the trading volume over the past 2 weeks, we have about 3M remaining toxic shares to absorb.
Here are the daily numbers:
Week One:
3/17/14: 5M reduced to 4.86M (274K volume / 2 = 134K decrease in toxic inventory)
3/18/14: 4.86M reduced to 4.71M (297K volume / 2 = 148K)
3/19/14: 4.71M reduced to 4.56M (307K / 2 = 153K)
3/20/14: 4.56M reduced to 3.81M (1.5M / 2 = 750K)
3/21/14: 3.81M reduced to 3.54M (531.9K / 2 = 266K)
Week Two:
3/24/14: 3.81M reduced to 3.56M (508.1K/ 2 = 254M)
3/25/14: 3.56M reduced to 3.5M (112.1K / 2 = 56K)
3/26/14: 3.5M reduced to 3.3M (404.9K / 2 = 202K)
3/27/14: 3.3M reduced to 3.1M (342.8K / 2 = 171.4K)
3/28/14: 3.1M reduced to 3.04M (120.2K / 2 = 60.1K)
Assuming a 200K daily "half volume" average, a 100K decrease from last week's daily average, we have about 15 more trading days to absorb the toxic selling. Considering how long many here have held their shares locked away, 15 days will be a walk in the park. Having said that, all it will take is one or two positive announcements to create new buying pressure and significant volume spikes. For example, during the week of 10/28/13, the weekly volume reached 6,346,300 shares (just 1 day accounted for over 3.6M shares traded). This was the week when Scrips announced it was going to China and that it received its first PIMD website order. More recently, during the week of March 3rd, SCRC's weekly volume was 4,639,400 shares. The only PR that week was news about RapiMeds Canada, a potential 6th revenue stream.
I have read opinions that SCRC has absorbed up to 55 million shares. If true, over the past several months, we have painfully risen all the way to the top 5% of this 60,000 foot ugly, thick, dark, uber-tornado producing cumulonimbus cloud system. Another 3,000 feet to climb and we will finally be cruising in smooth air with sunny and clear skies above.
I will speculate that as more of the toxic inventory is purchased, the fewer toxic sellers there will be undercutting each other's bids to dump their shares. And when only one or two toxic sellers remain, I also speculate they ratchet up their selling and just dump everything at once. It will be akin to reaching the end of an extra thick roll of toilet paper. As we all know, the closer to the end of the roll, the quicker it reaches the end.
Speaking of volume, I wonder how much volume SCRC has this week with today's news. If history is any indication, volume should not be overly explosive, but who knows, maybe today will be different. Here is each note payment headline this year with the corresponding daily volume and price movement:
2/19/14 - SCRC Commences Prepayment of Convertible Notes (first payment of note with largest principal and closest conversion date) -- Closed down from $.14 to $.13 on 428,300 shares
3/12/14 - SCRC Announces Prepayment of Convertible Promissory Note (Hyde Park, $42,400 becomes convertible on 3/18) -- Closed up from $.10 to $.12 on 458,500 shares
3/17/14 - SCRC Prepays Another Convertible Promissory Note (Redwood, $55K becomes convertible on 4/4) -- Closed even at $.12 on 274,900 shares
Today, 3/31/14 - SCRC Prepays $50,000 Convertible Promissory Note (LG Capital, $53,732 becomes convertible on 4/22) -- Any guesses on closing price and volume?
Tic toc, tic, toc!
BSAV
Here are the daily numbers:
Week One:
3/17/14: 5M reduced to 4.86M (274K volume / 2 = 134K decrease in toxic inventory)
3/18/14: 4.86M reduced to 4.71M (297K volume / 2 = 148K)
3/19/14: 4.71M reduced to 4.56M (307K / 2 = 153K)
3/20/14: 4.56M reduced to 3.81M (1.5M / 2 = 750K)
3/21/14: 3.81M reduced to 3.54M (531.9K / 2 = 266K)
Week Two:
3/24/14: 3.81M reduced to 3.56M (508.1K/ 2 = 254M)
3/25/14: 3.56M reduced to 3.5M (112.1K / 2 = 56K)
3/26/14: 3.5M reduced to 3.3M (404.9K / 2 = 202K)
3/27/14: 3.3M reduced to 3.1M (342.8K / 2 = 171.4K)
3/28/14: 3.1M reduced to 3.04M (120.2K / 2 = 60.1K)
Assuming a 200K daily "half volume" average, a 100K decrease from last week's daily average, we have about 15 more trading days to absorb the toxic selling. Considering how long many here have held their shares locked away, 15 days will be a walk in the park. Having said that, all it will take is one or two positive announcements to create new buying pressure and significant volume spikes. For example, during the week of 10/28/13, the weekly volume reached 6,346,300 shares (just 1 day accounted for over 3.6M shares traded). This was the week when Scrips announced it was going to China and that it received its first PIMD website order. More recently, during the week of March 3rd, SCRC's weekly volume was 4,639,400 shares. The only PR that week was news about RapiMeds Canada, a potential 6th revenue stream.
I have read opinions that SCRC has absorbed up to 55 million shares. If true, over the past several months, we have painfully risen all the way to the top 5% of this 60,000 foot ugly, thick, dark, uber-tornado producing cumulonimbus cloud system. Another 3,000 feet to climb and we will finally be cruising in smooth air with sunny and clear skies above.
I will speculate that as more of the toxic inventory is purchased, the fewer toxic sellers there will be undercutting each other's bids to dump their shares. And when only one or two toxic sellers remain, I also speculate they ratchet up their selling and just dump everything at once. It will be akin to reaching the end of an extra thick roll of toilet paper. As we all know, the closer to the end of the roll, the quicker it reaches the end.
Speaking of volume, I wonder how much volume SCRC has this week with today's news. If history is any indication, volume should not be overly explosive, but who knows, maybe today will be different. Here is each note payment headline this year with the corresponding daily volume and price movement:
2/19/14 - SCRC Commences Prepayment of Convertible Notes (first payment of note with largest principal and closest conversion date) -- Closed down from $.14 to $.13 on 428,300 shares
3/12/14 - SCRC Announces Prepayment of Convertible Promissory Note (Hyde Park, $42,400 becomes convertible on 3/18) -- Closed up from $.10 to $.12 on 458,500 shares
3/17/14 - SCRC Prepays Another Convertible Promissory Note (Redwood, $55K becomes convertible on 4/4) -- Closed even at $.12 on 274,900 shares
Today, 3/31/14 - SCRC Prepays $50,000 Convertible Promissory Note (LG Capital, $53,732 becomes convertible on 4/22) -- Any guesses on closing price and volume?
Tic toc, tic, toc!
BSAV
