Per Celts' opinion, on 3/17/14 we started with about 5M shares of toxic inventory. If we apply his formula to reduce that inventory by half of the trading volume over the past 2 weeks, we have about 3M remaining toxic shares to absorb.
Here are the daily numbers:
Week One:
3/17/14: 5M reduced to 4.86M (274K volume / 2 = 134K decrease in toxic inventory)
3/18/14: 4.86M reduced to 4.71M (297K volume / 2 = 148K)
3/19/14: 4.71M reduced to 4.56M (307K / 2 = 153K)
3/20/14: 4.56M reduced to 3.81M (1.5M / 2 = 750K)
3/21/14: 3.81M reduced to 3.54M (531.9K / 2 = 266K)
Week Two:
3/24/14: 3.81M reduced to 3.56M (508.1K/ 2 = 254M)
3/25/14: 3.56M reduced to 3.5M (112.1K / 2 = 56K)
3/26/14: 3.5M reduced to 3.3M (404.9K / 2 = 202K)
3/27/14: 3.3M reduced to 3.1M (342.8K / 2 = 171.4K)
3/28/14: 3.1M reduced to 3.04M (120.2K / 2 = 60.1K)
Assuming a 200K daily "half volume" average, a 100K decrease from last week's daily average, we have about 15 more trading days to absorb the toxic selling. Considering how long most of the Core has been invested here, 15 days will be a walk in the park.
Having said that, all it will take is one or two positive announcements to create new buying pressure and significant volume spikes. For example, during the week of 10/28/13, the weekly volume reached 6,346,300 shares (just 1 day accounted for over 3.6M shares traded). This was the week when Scrips announced it was going to China and that it received its first PIMD website order. More recently, during the week of March 3rd, SCRC's weekly volume was 4,639,400 shares. The only PR that week was news about RapiMeds Canada, a potential 6th revenue stream.
I have read opinions that SCRC has absorbed up to 55 million shares. If true, over the past several months, we have painfully risen all the way to the top 5% of this 60,000 foot ugly, thick, dark, uber-tornado producing cumulonimbus cloud system. Another 3,000 feet to climb and we will finally be cruising in smooth air with sunny and clear skies above. (I thought I'd try out a w-n-Weather analogy. Can you believe that guy? Says if he knew about the toxic notes he wouldn't have bought when he did. Instead, he would have bought at the exact bottom and been able to accumulate twice the amount of shares he has. Anyone who has that type of ability would be worth billions and clearly would not be posting on a stock message board blaming others for their own failings to conduct even the most basic and fundamental DD. Moreover, with the uber-fins posts from Flyers, MS, CHP and others every day pasting all of the notes and the shares from consultants and service providers, how could anyone have missed the toxic notes? What an utter disappointment. Ok, sorry, I digressed...
I will speculate that as more of the toxic inventory is purchased, the fewer toxic sellers there will be undercutting each other's bids to dump their shares. And when only one or two toxic sellers remain, I also speculate they ratchet up their selling and just dump everything at once. It will be akin to reaching the end of the toilet paper spool. As we all know, the closer to the end of the spool, the faster it turns.
Tic toc, tic, toc!
BSAV
Here are the daily numbers:
Week One:
3/17/14: 5M reduced to 4.86M (274K volume / 2 = 134K decrease in toxic inventory)
3/18/14: 4.86M reduced to 4.71M (297K volume / 2 = 148K)
3/19/14: 4.71M reduced to 4.56M (307K / 2 = 153K)
3/20/14: 4.56M reduced to 3.81M (1.5M / 2 = 750K)
3/21/14: 3.81M reduced to 3.54M (531.9K / 2 = 266K)
Week Two:
3/24/14: 3.81M reduced to 3.56M (508.1K/ 2 = 254M)
3/25/14: 3.56M reduced to 3.5M (112.1K / 2 = 56K)
3/26/14: 3.5M reduced to 3.3M (404.9K / 2 = 202K)
3/27/14: 3.3M reduced to 3.1M (342.8K / 2 = 171.4K)
3/28/14: 3.1M reduced to 3.04M (120.2K / 2 = 60.1K)
Assuming a 200K daily "half volume" average, a 100K decrease from last week's daily average, we have about 15 more trading days to absorb the toxic selling. Considering how long most of the Core has been invested here, 15 days will be a walk in the park.
Having said that, all it will take is one or two positive announcements to create new buying pressure and significant volume spikes. For example, during the week of 10/28/13, the weekly volume reached 6,346,300 shares (just 1 day accounted for over 3.6M shares traded). This was the week when Scrips announced it was going to China and that it received its first PIMD website order. More recently, during the week of March 3rd, SCRC's weekly volume was 4,639,400 shares. The only PR that week was news about RapiMeds Canada, a potential 6th revenue stream.
I have read opinions that SCRC has absorbed up to 55 million shares. If true, over the past several months, we have painfully risen all the way to the top 5% of this 60,000 foot ugly, thick, dark, uber-tornado producing cumulonimbus cloud system. Another 3,000 feet to climb and we will finally be cruising in smooth air with sunny and clear skies above. (I thought I'd try out a w-n-Weather analogy. Can you believe that guy? Says if he knew about the toxic notes he wouldn't have bought when he did. Instead, he would have bought at the exact bottom and been able to accumulate twice the amount of shares he has. Anyone who has that type of ability would be worth billions and clearly would not be posting on a stock message board blaming others for their own failings to conduct even the most basic and fundamental DD. Moreover, with the uber-fins posts from Flyers, MS, CHP and others every day pasting all of the notes and the shares from consultants and service providers, how could anyone have missed the toxic notes? What an utter disappointment. Ok, sorry, I digressed...
I will speculate that as more of the toxic inventory is purchased, the fewer toxic sellers there will be undercutting each other's bids to dump their shares. And when only one or two toxic sellers remain, I also speculate they ratchet up their selling and just dump everything at once. It will be akin to reaching the end of the toilet paper spool. As we all know, the closer to the end of the spool, the faster it turns.
Tic toc, tic, toc!
BSAV
