The force is strong with you. Just nothing more t
Post# of 11899
Posted On: 01/10/2014 11:26:28 PM
Re: Bagholder777 #11692
The force is strong with you.
Just nothing more than my opinions but I think there is a major disconnect between the way the stock trades over long periods of time and the real public company that is Rapid Fire Marketing Inc. Of course though we know that most PK stocks are quite illiquid and volatile so it is no surprise to see the stock move to such extreme valuations so rapidly. For months upon months the stock traded in the low triple zero's and then in a matter of days the stock is trading up to three times par value. How could the actual valuation of the real company have really changed so much in so little time. It could not have unless there was some gigantic game changing corporate development however no recent news has come out of RFMK other than the shareholders notice back in early December, so the stock move just does not make much sense from a fundamental valuation perspective. That is why during the first day or two of the stock move I was saying that it appeared the stock was moving solely on technical reasons, plus the sector movement IMO had to have been a large factor. The stock had traded at such an extremely low valuation for so long, it seemed like it was ripe for a technical move higher and sure enough once the stochastics began showing signs of life, the PPS shot up rather quickly, along with volume.
By the same token I think that the recent decline from the high was also because of technicals. The RSI reached just over 90 which typically cannot be sustained for very long and the MACD and other indicators were reaching a sharp high and as the PPS reached the high at $0.003, there appeared to be an immediate reaction (rejection) to those price levels with the stock trading back down to near par value at $0.001. One troubling technical indicator though is the A/D line. It was moving sharply higher during the accumulation but then fell rather sharply in the last two down days for the stock. This suggests traders are likely of the opinion that the move is over and it's time to dump it all. Many seem to think that it's the same ' ol dilution all over again, but IMO this does not seem likely. It makes more sense (IMO) that the distribution of shares is simply caused by an exodus of traders of whom bought it on the way up and are now liquidating their positions. Is that not what the saviors are always telling us to do? Buy and then dump immediately the day after? Yet when that happens en masse they point their fingers at company management; it makes no sense IMO.
There is no telling where the stock will go or can go but what I can say is that this was actually a rather precise technical move in the stock and it played out in a very orderly fashion.
On a more fundamental note, I think that it is actually very healthy for the stock to purge old holders of record and have new shareholders and traders in at new price levels. IMO it breathes new life into the stock and I think it causes there to be a more healthy and greater level of liquidity in the stock. It certainly exposed a greater number of potential investors/traders to the stock and perhaps the ticker is now on more investors radar's and watchlists.
It appears some still do not see what if any valuation can be associated with this company. Well, that actually happens to be an easy evaluation and analysis. Most PK stocks and micro cap start up companies trade with a P/E of about 25 (it's just the average generic and typical P/E ratio used). If one were to actually read RFMK filings and financial figures, it would be clear that the company no longer holds ANY debt whatsoever. Interested parties should point their browsers to ...
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/RFMK/financials#
and go over the financials. The company actually has assets of about $1.8M and net liabilities of about $650k. Therefore the company on paper is worth about $1.2M. The O/S is about 2.5B shares, so doing the math, it becomes clear that the book value of the company (with ZERO expectations of revenues or earnings or profits) is
$0.0005
Further, here is a small hint for those who wish to be in the "know"...
What is IronRidge's cost basis to as good a degree as the public can know?
$0.0006
What is the 200 day moving average of the stock?
$0.0007
What is the price level of the lower Bollinger band (10,2)?
$0.0003
What was the absolute low?
$0.0002
What is the approximate average of all of these price levels?
$0.0005
Hmmmm........
Furthermore, if we back out the valuation given to the stock at the recent high from the estimated book value then we see that $0.005 + $0.0025 equates to $0.003 so therefore at the high the market prescribed a $0.0025 per share valuation to the company's potential and capacity for earnings. If we break that valuation down, we have a valuation attributed to potential earnings according to Mr. Market such that...
EPS = (PPS) / (P/E) = $0.0025 / 25 = $0.0001
Potential Net Annual Earnings = (O/S)*(EPS) = (2.5B)*(0.0001) = $250,000
Quarterly that would mean RFMK would need to earn about $62,500 to justify the EPS assumed by the market (and assuming the market is assuming a generic P/E of about 25, signifying about 25% earnings growth, actually the growth would likely be much much higher).
Can RFMK potentially earn $62,500 per quarter?
Each month earnings would need to be $20,833
Each day $694
To earn this much the company would likely need to pull in revenues of double this amount every day, so...
Each day revenue would need to be $1,388
Each unit will sell for roughly $100, so each day RFMK would need to sell 13.88 units, lets call it 14 units.
Can the company sell on average about 14 units per day for the next 12 months???????? THAT is the question IMO.
Each investor must answer that question for him/herself separately but in my opinion, it is attainable, especially with a distribution chain and large e-commerce website and store orders occurring based on large marketing campaigns. Not to mention, not every dime of earnings need be attributable to sales of the dry herb vaporizer units, earnings could come from other sources (remember, this company has effectively become a HOLDING COMPANY). There is no telling what management has in the works for various businesses in the MMJ sector!
Some seem to be quite adamant that there is absolutely zero reason why the market should ever assume a valuation as high as the recent high in the stock $0.003 but IMO it is actually not very difficult to know why and it is not a very far stretch of the imagination to assume the company would or could eventually realize that level of revenue generation and earnings growth.
IMO it is not very hard to see why the market would sometimes only give RFMK credit for less than the assets are worth on the balance sheet and other times assume a bullish level of earnings along with the estimated book value and most of the time all price levels in-between. PK stocks fluctuate, sometimes the stock is in the gutter and other times it is flying high, there should be no surprise or bewilderment, though I imagine some fancy themselves acting on stage with every post, because they are and they likely are getting paid by crony short selling offshore hedge funds for the daily dog and pony show.
All just my own opinions, each investor must come to their own conclusions and assumptions.
Difficult to see the future is.
GLTA
$RFMK
Just nothing more than my opinions but I think there is a major disconnect between the way the stock trades over long periods of time and the real public company that is Rapid Fire Marketing Inc. Of course though we know that most PK stocks are quite illiquid and volatile so it is no surprise to see the stock move to such extreme valuations so rapidly. For months upon months the stock traded in the low triple zero's and then in a matter of days the stock is trading up to three times par value. How could the actual valuation of the real company have really changed so much in so little time. It could not have unless there was some gigantic game changing corporate development however no recent news has come out of RFMK other than the shareholders notice back in early December, so the stock move just does not make much sense from a fundamental valuation perspective. That is why during the first day or two of the stock move I was saying that it appeared the stock was moving solely on technical reasons, plus the sector movement IMO had to have been a large factor. The stock had traded at such an extremely low valuation for so long, it seemed like it was ripe for a technical move higher and sure enough once the stochastics began showing signs of life, the PPS shot up rather quickly, along with volume.
By the same token I think that the recent decline from the high was also because of technicals. The RSI reached just over 90 which typically cannot be sustained for very long and the MACD and other indicators were reaching a sharp high and as the PPS reached the high at $0.003, there appeared to be an immediate reaction (rejection) to those price levels with the stock trading back down to near par value at $0.001. One troubling technical indicator though is the A/D line. It was moving sharply higher during the accumulation but then fell rather sharply in the last two down days for the stock. This suggests traders are likely of the opinion that the move is over and it's time to dump it all. Many seem to think that it's the same ' ol dilution all over again, but IMO this does not seem likely. It makes more sense (IMO) that the distribution of shares is simply caused by an exodus of traders of whom bought it on the way up and are now liquidating their positions. Is that not what the saviors are always telling us to do? Buy and then dump immediately the day after? Yet when that happens en masse they point their fingers at company management; it makes no sense IMO.
There is no telling where the stock will go or can go but what I can say is that this was actually a rather precise technical move in the stock and it played out in a very orderly fashion.
On a more fundamental note, I think that it is actually very healthy for the stock to purge old holders of record and have new shareholders and traders in at new price levels. IMO it breathes new life into the stock and I think it causes there to be a more healthy and greater level of liquidity in the stock. It certainly exposed a greater number of potential investors/traders to the stock and perhaps the ticker is now on more investors radar's and watchlists.
It appears some still do not see what if any valuation can be associated with this company. Well, that actually happens to be an easy evaluation and analysis. Most PK stocks and micro cap start up companies trade with a P/E of about 25 (it's just the average generic and typical P/E ratio used). If one were to actually read RFMK filings and financial figures, it would be clear that the company no longer holds ANY debt whatsoever. Interested parties should point their browsers to ...
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/RFMK/financials#
and go over the financials. The company actually has assets of about $1.8M and net liabilities of about $650k. Therefore the company on paper is worth about $1.2M. The O/S is about 2.5B shares, so doing the math, it becomes clear that the book value of the company (with ZERO expectations of revenues or earnings or profits) is
$0.0005
Further, here is a small hint for those who wish to be in the "know"...
What is IronRidge's cost basis to as good a degree as the public can know?
$0.0006
What is the 200 day moving average of the stock?
$0.0007
What is the price level of the lower Bollinger band (10,2)?
$0.0003
What was the absolute low?
$0.0002
What is the approximate average of all of these price levels?
$0.0005
Hmmmm........
Furthermore, if we back out the valuation given to the stock at the recent high from the estimated book value then we see that $0.005 + $0.0025 equates to $0.003 so therefore at the high the market prescribed a $0.0025 per share valuation to the company's potential and capacity for earnings. If we break that valuation down, we have a valuation attributed to potential earnings according to Mr. Market such that...
EPS = (PPS) / (P/E) = $0.0025 / 25 = $0.0001
Potential Net Annual Earnings = (O/S)*(EPS) = (2.5B)*(0.0001) = $250,000
Quarterly that would mean RFMK would need to earn about $62,500 to justify the EPS assumed by the market (and assuming the market is assuming a generic P/E of about 25, signifying about 25% earnings growth, actually the growth would likely be much much higher).
Can RFMK potentially earn $62,500 per quarter?
Each month earnings would need to be $20,833
Each day $694
To earn this much the company would likely need to pull in revenues of double this amount every day, so...
Each day revenue would need to be $1,388
Each unit will sell for roughly $100, so each day RFMK would need to sell 13.88 units, lets call it 14 units.
Can the company sell on average about 14 units per day for the next 12 months???????? THAT is the question IMO.
Each investor must answer that question for him/herself separately but in my opinion, it is attainable, especially with a distribution chain and large e-commerce website and store orders occurring based on large marketing campaigns. Not to mention, not every dime of earnings need be attributable to sales of the dry herb vaporizer units, earnings could come from other sources (remember, this company has effectively become a HOLDING COMPANY). There is no telling what management has in the works for various businesses in the MMJ sector!
Some seem to be quite adamant that there is absolutely zero reason why the market should ever assume a valuation as high as the recent high in the stock $0.003 but IMO it is actually not very difficult to know why and it is not a very far stretch of the imagination to assume the company would or could eventually realize that level of revenue generation and earnings growth.
IMO it is not very hard to see why the market would sometimes only give RFMK credit for less than the assets are worth on the balance sheet and other times assume a bullish level of earnings along with the estimated book value and most of the time all price levels in-between. PK stocks fluctuate, sometimes the stock is in the gutter and other times it is flying high, there should be no surprise or bewilderment, though I imagine some fancy themselves acting on stage with every post, because they are and they likely are getting paid by crony short selling offshore hedge funds for the daily dog and pony show.
All just my own opinions, each investor must come to their own conclusions and assumptions.
Difficult to see the future is.
GLTA
$RFMK
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(0)Rapid Fire Marketing, Inc. (RFMK) Stock Research Links
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