In my opinion, it is pure speculation to engage in
Post# of 11899
Posted On: 01/04/2014 1:12:29 PM
In my opinion, it is pure speculation to engage in discussion about the cause of the recent rally in the stock.
I think for the broad public on message boards we can only guess as to why the stock has experienced rising price and volume in the past few sessions. Nonetheless, there are some data points we know and some would argue that we can glean further information from these facts .
Firstly, looking at a long term chart shows the overall movement of the stock last year and into this new year.
CHART
Back in mid February when positive corporate news was announced there were several days in a row of high volume and price appreciation.
The stock experienced record breaking volume of 250M shares per day, the long term RSI spiked to 80, A/D peaked and you will notice that for the volume by price measure at any price above $0.003 at the time consisted of primarily positive price action and most of the volume.
Traders, investors and RFMK followers must realize though that back then there existed less than half of the shares in the O/S.
The PPS reached highs of about $0.0045 during the time of the two price/volume spikes.
Then after those rallies subsided, the PPS came to rest at about $0.002 for a while until about late April when the PPS began a downward trend on what can be viewed as generally low volume.
The price fell from about $0.002 to $0.0002 on daily trading volume which was typically less than 10M shares per day, often less, with an occasional uptick in volume upwards of about 30M. During that time such daily volume levels effectively meant that only about 1% or 2% of the shares in the O/S were trading , and there is no telling how much churn there was going on, especially considering that the typical daily short ratios were consistently as high as half of the daily trading volume and often greater than half of the volume. Shareholders of whom held from the $0.002 level down to $0.0002 lost about 90% in value. During those months of PPS declines the total aggregate volume was actually LESS THAN the total number of shares traded during the few days period wherein the price/volume spiked to $0.0045 months before.
Since the bottom at $0.0002 there have been two high volume periods wherein the stock traded about 150M shares but topped out at about $0.0003; a 50% gain. As of a few trading sessions ago, the price has risen and the volume has spiked once again. This time the PPS moved from about $0.0003 to $0.0006 on about 250M+ shares; a 100% gain. During this time the daily shorting ratios have once again been consistently at about half of the total daily volume with the occasional day consisting of over 90% short selling.
These are the facts; though of course the figures are estimates so take them with a grain of salt, however IMO these statements seem to be pretty truth ful and accurate as per the long term stock chart. These are just my observations of the chart and data reported by FINRA.
It seems some continue to pound the table that good 'ol Tom continues to use certain MMs to pump the stock so he can dilute billions into the market place, all the while IronRidge dumps making huge profits. IMO the reality is quite far from such speculations. First of all, "IronRidge" is NOT "Fairhills". Let us grasp a few key facts. "Fairhills" is actually "E-Lionheart Associates" and is currently engaged in deep troubling lawsuits and legal trouble with the SEC via using and abusing financing agreements with a laundry list of OTC companies of which RFMK happens to be another one of their victims. IronRidge Global IV is a wholly different company and funder for RFMK. They are a long term investment firm which has been providing RFMK with $50,000 per month funding agreement as well as an initial agreement of shares for debt consolidation, which so happened to not require IronRidge to be subject to ownership/reporting constraints as is typically the case via 13G's, etc. Because of this nuance, there really is actually no telling how many shares IronRidge actually owns. It is pure speculation to assume that the issuances to IronRidge are every month, every week, every day, every year or whenever and however large a position stake per issuance. It is also pure speculation to assume that the shares IronRidge obtains from funding are always sold for a substantial profit. One thing we know in RFMK-land is that buyers are usually scarce over time and so there is typically a lack of liquidity and so IronRidge cannot simply just dump all the shares they would like to dump every month; if there just is not to be that great a volume during any given month then those shares must be held, or, continue to walk the price down to drum up more buyer interest so the daily volume will be higher on average and they can off-load the number of shares they need to sell.
In my opinion, this is the dynamic we have witnessed since April of last year. The PPS continued to decline as bidders were scarce and so it is possible that IronRidge actually was in desperate need of liquidity and simply sold for lower and lower share prices, whatever they could get whenever they could get it, which does not portend very good exit levels for their positions. If this was indeed happening then there is really no telling if IronRidge has so far ever even made ANY profit on ANY of their positions; they very well could have been taking losses that whole time, selling for lower and lower prices, even lower than the discounted price at which they acquired the shares. What we do know is how much money has come out of IronRidge so far and over all that time the average PPS during the periods of greatest volume. IronRidge has let about one million dollars go into investing into RFMK and the average cost basis for their positions over all time is very close or exactly at the current price ($0.0006); see other post, the speculative math was done in another post. I will admit I could be way off with the psuedo-calculations and guesstimations but I think generally the analysis is sound. If one does the math they will see that the public float plus the suggested number of shares that IronRidge would have acquired from all of this funding is almost exactly how big the current O/S happens to be. As for how big the current float is vs the current O/S, it's anyone's guess, and what the ratio of that figure and the average volume for the stock over future months will be is the real rub, of course.
As for the dilution story, we already know that RFMK has diluted and will continue to dilute so long as they continue to try to build a real business all the while not taking in revenues and profits. The question is how much will they need to dilute in the future and when will it happen and how long until the business can stand on it's own two feet and produce earnings. What we know is that since this recent spike in volume and price, there have not actually been ANY suspicious T-trades after-hours. Also the accumulation/distribution line on the chart is actually UP! The A/D is spiking so it does not appear that massive distribution and dilution of shares is taking place, actually on the contrary it appears there is massive accumulation happening right now. It is quite easy to assume that with such price / volume manipulation in a PK stock and with such a low level of retail buying and with all the dilution that has gone on for so long, it is business as usual and that the stock may experience a quick short pop followed by massive dilution and lower prices and lower volume but will it necessarily happen? No one knows the future. It could happen, then again, RFMK could just be beginning to come out of the downward price channel and starting to move higher, eventually passing par value and beyond. Who knows, I certainly do not know but I think we investors can glean certain perspectives from particular data points we have and information we know from the past. IMO some who apparently have their own agenda on message boards to manipulate public sentiment are deluding themselves if they think they know exactly what will transpire in the stock over the long term, not to mention the next few trading sessions. PK stocks are volatile and illiquid and the price/volume can move dramatically on any news (or none at all) and at ANY time!!!!
Let us just put this recent "action" in perspective, the stock has gone back to what appears to be the IronRidge cost basis at just over a 50% discount to par value for the stock ($0.001) in a few days period on only about 10% of the shares outstanding. THAT is all that has happened, nothing more, nothing less, yet some out there are going crazy making outrageous claims that the stock will necessarily rocket up to certain levels and/or making claims that it's all just a scam pump dump by usual insider enrichment scheme scamsters and that it will immediately go back down to $0.0001 with no new product coming, no filings, etc. IMO RFMK followers must be careful to not allow such extreme perspectives run rampant. Usually the balanced perspective tends to be right, or at least there is a higher likelihood of it becoming reality than the extremes.
These are just my own thoughts and musings, feel free to agree with them or disagree, I have absolutely no dog in this hunt and no predisposition (bear/bull) but I feel RFMK shareholders deserve more from the promises given over time by the CEO. I also still think RFMK has HUGE potential. If they can ever actually get the new product launched and the corporate filings in order then who knows, perhaps the company story will turn around and actually build shareholder value . Crazier things have happened.
Do or do not, there is no try.
GLTA
$RFMK
I think for the broad public on message boards we can only guess as to why the stock has experienced rising price and volume in the past few sessions. Nonetheless, there are some data points we know and some would argue that we can glean further information from these facts .
Firstly, looking at a long term chart shows the overall movement of the stock last year and into this new year.
CHART
Back in mid February when positive corporate news was announced there were several days in a row of high volume and price appreciation.
The stock experienced record breaking volume of 250M shares per day, the long term RSI spiked to 80, A/D peaked and you will notice that for the volume by price measure at any price above $0.003 at the time consisted of primarily positive price action and most of the volume.
Traders, investors and RFMK followers must realize though that back then there existed less than half of the shares in the O/S.
The PPS reached highs of about $0.0045 during the time of the two price/volume spikes.
Then after those rallies subsided, the PPS came to rest at about $0.002 for a while until about late April when the PPS began a downward trend on what can be viewed as generally low volume.
The price fell from about $0.002 to $0.0002 on daily trading volume which was typically less than 10M shares per day, often less, with an occasional uptick in volume upwards of about 30M. During that time such daily volume levels effectively meant that only about 1% or 2% of the shares in the O/S were trading , and there is no telling how much churn there was going on, especially considering that the typical daily short ratios were consistently as high as half of the daily trading volume and often greater than half of the volume. Shareholders of whom held from the $0.002 level down to $0.0002 lost about 90% in value. During those months of PPS declines the total aggregate volume was actually LESS THAN the total number of shares traded during the few days period wherein the price/volume spiked to $0.0045 months before.
Since the bottom at $0.0002 there have been two high volume periods wherein the stock traded about 150M shares but topped out at about $0.0003; a 50% gain. As of a few trading sessions ago, the price has risen and the volume has spiked once again. This time the PPS moved from about $0.0003 to $0.0006 on about 250M+ shares; a 100% gain. During this time the daily shorting ratios have once again been consistently at about half of the total daily volume with the occasional day consisting of over 90% short selling.
These are the facts; though of course the figures are estimates so take them with a grain of salt, however IMO these statements seem to be pretty truth ful and accurate as per the long term stock chart. These are just my observations of the chart and data reported by FINRA.
It seems some continue to pound the table that good 'ol Tom continues to use certain MMs to pump the stock so he can dilute billions into the market place, all the while IronRidge dumps making huge profits. IMO the reality is quite far from such speculations. First of all, "IronRidge" is NOT "Fairhills". Let us grasp a few key facts. "Fairhills" is actually "E-Lionheart Associates" and is currently engaged in deep troubling lawsuits and legal trouble with the SEC via using and abusing financing agreements with a laundry list of OTC companies of which RFMK happens to be another one of their victims. IronRidge Global IV is a wholly different company and funder for RFMK. They are a long term investment firm which has been providing RFMK with $50,000 per month funding agreement as well as an initial agreement of shares for debt consolidation, which so happened to not require IronRidge to be subject to ownership/reporting constraints as is typically the case via 13G's, etc. Because of this nuance, there really is actually no telling how many shares IronRidge actually owns. It is pure speculation to assume that the issuances to IronRidge are every month, every week, every day, every year or whenever and however large a position stake per issuance. It is also pure speculation to assume that the shares IronRidge obtains from funding are always sold for a substantial profit. One thing we know in RFMK-land is that buyers are usually scarce over time and so there is typically a lack of liquidity and so IronRidge cannot simply just dump all the shares they would like to dump every month; if there just is not to be that great a volume during any given month then those shares must be held, or, continue to walk the price down to drum up more buyer interest so the daily volume will be higher on average and they can off-load the number of shares they need to sell.
In my opinion, this is the dynamic we have witnessed since April of last year. The PPS continued to decline as bidders were scarce and so it is possible that IronRidge actually was in desperate need of liquidity and simply sold for lower and lower share prices, whatever they could get whenever they could get it, which does not portend very good exit levels for their positions. If this was indeed happening then there is really no telling if IronRidge has so far ever even made ANY profit on ANY of their positions; they very well could have been taking losses that whole time, selling for lower and lower prices, even lower than the discounted price at which they acquired the shares. What we do know is how much money has come out of IronRidge so far and over all that time the average PPS during the periods of greatest volume. IronRidge has let about one million dollars go into investing into RFMK and the average cost basis for their positions over all time is very close or exactly at the current price ($0.0006); see other post, the speculative math was done in another post. I will admit I could be way off with the psuedo-calculations and guesstimations but I think generally the analysis is sound. If one does the math they will see that the public float plus the suggested number of shares that IronRidge would have acquired from all of this funding is almost exactly how big the current O/S happens to be. As for how big the current float is vs the current O/S, it's anyone's guess, and what the ratio of that figure and the average volume for the stock over future months will be is the real rub, of course.
As for the dilution story, we already know that RFMK has diluted and will continue to dilute so long as they continue to try to build a real business all the while not taking in revenues and profits. The question is how much will they need to dilute in the future and when will it happen and how long until the business can stand on it's own two feet and produce earnings. What we know is that since this recent spike in volume and price, there have not actually been ANY suspicious T-trades after-hours. Also the accumulation/distribution line on the chart is actually UP! The A/D is spiking so it does not appear that massive distribution and dilution of shares is taking place, actually on the contrary it appears there is massive accumulation happening right now. It is quite easy to assume that with such price / volume manipulation in a PK stock and with such a low level of retail buying and with all the dilution that has gone on for so long, it is business as usual and that the stock may experience a quick short pop followed by massive dilution and lower prices and lower volume but will it necessarily happen? No one knows the future. It could happen, then again, RFMK could just be beginning to come out of the downward price channel and starting to move higher, eventually passing par value and beyond. Who knows, I certainly do not know but I think we investors can glean certain perspectives from particular data points we have and information we know from the past. IMO some who apparently have their own agenda on message boards to manipulate public sentiment are deluding themselves if they think they know exactly what will transpire in the stock over the long term, not to mention the next few trading sessions. PK stocks are volatile and illiquid and the price/volume can move dramatically on any news (or none at all) and at ANY time!!!!
Let us just put this recent "action" in perspective, the stock has gone back to what appears to be the IronRidge cost basis at just over a 50% discount to par value for the stock ($0.001) in a few days period on only about 10% of the shares outstanding. THAT is all that has happened, nothing more, nothing less, yet some out there are going crazy making outrageous claims that the stock will necessarily rocket up to certain levels and/or making claims that it's all just a scam pump dump by usual insider enrichment scheme scamsters and that it will immediately go back down to $0.0001 with no new product coming, no filings, etc. IMO RFMK followers must be careful to not allow such extreme perspectives run rampant. Usually the balanced perspective tends to be right, or at least there is a higher likelihood of it becoming reality than the extremes.
These are just my own thoughts and musings, feel free to agree with them or disagree, I have absolutely no dog in this hunt and no predisposition (bear/bull) but I feel RFMK shareholders deserve more from the promises given over time by the CEO. I also still think RFMK has HUGE potential. If they can ever actually get the new product launched and the corporate filings in order then who knows, perhaps the company story will turn around and actually build shareholder value . Crazier things have happened.
Do or do not, there is no try.
GLTA
$RFMK
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