Let's place the real float at 500M = $7.35M @ .014
Post# of 41414
Posted On: 12/08/2013 11:24:11 PM
Let's place the real float at 500M = $7.35M @ .0147/share. If someone knows the float to be larger/smaller, say so. I am working off a guess, but seeing how easily this stock moves, I can't see the real float being much larger.
Now, if 500M shares are tradeable, and each public investors invests an average of just $1,500 into Baltia, you'd need only 4,900 investors to double the current market cap. Baltia already has 1,000 shareholders of record, which from my experience in pennies, we can assume there will be at least 20-30 public investors for every shareholder of record by the first flight. 25,000 avg X $1,500/investor = $37.5M injected into Baltia's float, assuming those with the large private placements don't just dump (which they won't). Now take $37.5M, distribute it to PPS for 500M shares, and you'd arrive at 13.3 cents/share above current levels...so about 15.8 cents/share.
There are many variables in that calculation, and I have not factored HYPE, which would quadruple the price and MANY new investors would help lock that float even more. I have also not factored zero DEBT, nor PROFITABILITY!!!!!!!
Baltia's profit margin, year one, with one airplane is 15%. JetBlue's is 2.6%.
Baltia will have a HUGE pile of cash to re-invest into acquiring more planes, hiring more staff for planes and offices, etc....
Working off Delta's valuation, $1/share by the end of first year of flights is pretty easy to reach.
I've been EXTREMELY conservative with the average investment per person. That $1,500 is far more likely to be upwards of $5-6K per person, with some whales putting in a couple million to snag the float and skew the investment per person amount. If you use $5,000/investment as the calculation, the share price by first flight becomes over .40/share.
And we'll have far more than 25K public investors in an international airline by the end of year one, which may balance out selling from the large PP holders.
Now, if 500M shares are tradeable, and each public investors invests an average of just $1,500 into Baltia, you'd need only 4,900 investors to double the current market cap. Baltia already has 1,000 shareholders of record, which from my experience in pennies, we can assume there will be at least 20-30 public investors for every shareholder of record by the first flight. 25,000 avg X $1,500/investor = $37.5M injected into Baltia's float, assuming those with the large private placements don't just dump (which they won't). Now take $37.5M, distribute it to PPS for 500M shares, and you'd arrive at 13.3 cents/share above current levels...so about 15.8 cents/share.
There are many variables in that calculation, and I have not factored HYPE, which would quadruple the price and MANY new investors would help lock that float even more. I have also not factored zero DEBT, nor PROFITABILITY!!!!!!!
Baltia's profit margin, year one, with one airplane is 15%. JetBlue's is 2.6%.
Baltia will have a HUGE pile of cash to re-invest into acquiring more planes, hiring more staff for planes and offices, etc....
Working off Delta's valuation, $1/share by the end of first year of flights is pretty easy to reach.
I've been EXTREMELY conservative with the average investment per person. That $1,500 is far more likely to be upwards of $5-6K per person, with some whales putting in a couple million to snag the float and skew the investment per person amount. If you use $5,000/investment as the calculation, the share price by first flight becomes over .40/share.
And we'll have far more than 25K public investors in an international airline by the end of year one, which may balance out selling from the large PP holders.
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