The burn rate at the mills is catching up fast

The burn rate at the mills is catching up fast with mill inventories and after talking to a couple mills directly, their inventories are low, they hope to pick-up less than ship load amounts at spot during the next month or so. By mid-October, there will be a little bounce in pricing and that should increase after the Chinese New Year, inventories at ports is still holding around 100 million metric tons, it will burn out in less than 45 days..

Mining Cost and Non-mining Cost vary widely between mines, there is no set cost for any mines, cost changes on monthly basis, depending on number of finished tons produced, number of labors, amounts of fuel , oil and hydraulic oil usage, number of equipment repairs, number of machines in the mine and number down-time days per month for major equipment, number of depreciation months, monthly depreciation cost divided by the number of finished tons will yield a different cost per mt each month for each machine, i.e., for an example, let’s say the most expensive machine in a junior miner’s operation is a tracked crusher like the Terex 1600 cost 1.2 million dollars and is depreciated out over 64 months, that’s $18,750.00 per month, the total tonnage for the month was 45,000 mt, so total per mt is $0.29 cents; however the finish mt turned out to 65% ( 29,250 mt) so the real cost was $0.64 cents minus 15% for under sizes which carry another cost factor the 20% waste, another cost factor, (depending on the overburden structure of the ore body during that period of excavation may also change on monthly basis).. Take those cost times the total number of machines on the mine, each carry a different cost factor and you find that actual mining cost is a nightmare to calculate. And that’s just the mining cost, the non-mining cost will also vary greatly between mines, depending on heavy haul distance to the port or other location, royalty fees if any apply per mt, port changers may also vary widely depending on the size of the port and type of loading facilities available, land usage fees, environmental fees etc. The real mining cost is calculated with all the above factors based on starting over the next day after the next ship load stockpile is completed, or continuing if a larger load is contemplated. In short, I cannot believe that mining cost in China is $77.00 per mt, that is extremely high for non-exported production, might come close to it if they were paying 50 something a mt for trucking and cargo vessel shipping, which is considered as non-mining cost..