Another great post by a "new" person on iFlub. Lot
Post# of 72440
Posted On: 11/14/2013 6:42:19 AM
Another great post by a "new" person on iFlub. Lots of "gold nuggets" . . . especially like the call for MGT to stop the fluff and over-exaggerated PR's! WE shall see. As Wild says, there will be a PR this weekend. If we hear that CTIX is doing "a. b. c." I will be happy . . . more comparisons to other small high flying bio's will be another red flag for me.
Ahrdee Wednesday, 11/13/13 11:03:03 PM
Re: I Need Help post# 45925
Post # of 45985
re:
Quote:
4) I can not think of any fundamental reason for the current sell off, other than normal dilution, low buyer interest, etc. Can you?
Hi INH,
If by "fundamental reason" you are referring to a company's fundamentals (net assets, earning ), then CTIX does not have any. But I think you mean it more generally.
I have spent a significant amount of time trying to understand this company and its science. This is my largest current investment . However, it is still speculative.
The current price action looks bad only because those on this board are very bullish and expect the stock to maintain a steady uptrend. We are the believers. It makes no sense to us why everyone does not buy this up.
The stock had a major run up from June to December of last year because there was progress. There were pre-clinical data being published which looked very impressive. Clinical study for Kevetrin was set in motion, and a trial for Prurisol was promised as impending.
However, the reality of 2013 became that the Kevetrin study left something to be desired (I know, many of you take strong exception to what I am about to say, but what I am saying is one way to look at it), and nothing happened with Prurisol. As regards Kevetrin, the starting dose and the increments were extremely low, and we did not know it until the initial (and only) set of data from the DF study was published. It would take a long time to get to meaningful levels (I have discussed those numbers on this forum before, so I will leave it alone) at the pace this was going. Such long wait means no urgency to buy. For the wonder drug that Kevetrin was hoped to be, no wonders were being reported (yes, I know, the last road show, and some seeming evidence of p21 at low doses, restaging, etc--but y'all who haven't seen the data are far more confident than those who have. How does that help?). This non-emergence of the Kevetrin story is the major reason for lack of movement. Along with that, however, there was another--sort of a betrayal of trust. I refer to the "Prurisol trial starts next month" announcements from the beginning of 2013.
The long and the short of it, nothing has happened to create excitement, except for the Polymedix asset acquisition which would have made a greater impression if it was not done by abandoning the Prurisol PoC and the lousy explanations given to justify it, whatever the real ones are. And we were left to speculate about the real reason. This may be how corporations are run. But then some people feel they don't have to buy it. Right now, no number of impending clinical study announcement on every Monday by Leo will impress anybody. We need CLINICAL data. We need actual studies commencing.
In the earlier months of 2012 Leo kind of whipped up investor excitement by dropping hints about major Pharma interest in Prurisol. Those who bought that story were let down.
All of this is not to say that Kevetrin will not come through with flying colors. However, we do not see the patients in the cohorts or what happens to them, and the best hopes we maintain are still that--hopes. It is not that some collaboration with major Pharma on favorable terms will not happen. However, we are not buying words any more.
Let me state this as gently as I can since I am an investor in this stock and I want it to go up and I think it has potential and almost zero risk of total loss. It does not help that a company's chief executive and scientific officers (and the only officers of any kind) resort to hype. This hype is talking about other stocks that went up 10 fold and saying CTIX is going to do that because "we are going to do a PoC in Europe." Enough said. That kind of talk and PR after PR on plans and hopes do not characterize companies with substance.
The stock price may also have something to do with Aspire, Polymedix trustee, and others who exercised warrants (and who knows? some early buyers with large position?) selling. When things are happening in terms of progress such sales don't make much of an impact. I really do not consider the present state dismal. One solid advance on any of the multiple fronts will reverse the apathy and slow decline.
However, investors are right to ask "Where is the beef?" Where is the action? Where is the trial? You and I believe that they are coming. But we are not enough to keep the price up.
On another note, a steady run up to be sustained over many quarters takes greater certitude about products, and then real earnings. I don't think the fluctuations in CTIX price last year were very severe at all (that is just my sense of "severe", probably because I did not buy over $2). Most established stocks do this. But this is a growth stock that is currently not acting like one. It is simply that people want to see the "growth" part. They are waiting for it. Meanwhile the status quo does not persuade those who have not committed already to come on board.
I expect all this will change by the end of this year. I HOPE it will change by the end of the year.
Ahrdee Wednesday, 11/13/13 11:03:03 PM
Re: I Need Help post# 45925
Post # of 45985
re:
Quote:
4) I can not think of any fundamental reason for the current sell off, other than normal dilution, low buyer interest, etc. Can you?
Hi INH,
If by "fundamental reason" you are referring to a company's fundamentals (net assets, earning ), then CTIX does not have any. But I think you mean it more generally.
I have spent a significant amount of time trying to understand this company and its science. This is my largest current investment . However, it is still speculative.
The current price action looks bad only because those on this board are very bullish and expect the stock to maintain a steady uptrend. We are the believers. It makes no sense to us why everyone does not buy this up.
The stock had a major run up from June to December of last year because there was progress. There were pre-clinical data being published which looked very impressive. Clinical study for Kevetrin was set in motion, and a trial for Prurisol was promised as impending.
However, the reality of 2013 became that the Kevetrin study left something to be desired (I know, many of you take strong exception to what I am about to say, but what I am saying is one way to look at it), and nothing happened with Prurisol. As regards Kevetrin, the starting dose and the increments were extremely low, and we did not know it until the initial (and only) set of data from the DF study was published. It would take a long time to get to meaningful levels (I have discussed those numbers on this forum before, so I will leave it alone) at the pace this was going. Such long wait means no urgency to buy. For the wonder drug that Kevetrin was hoped to be, no wonders were being reported (yes, I know, the last road show, and some seeming evidence of p21 at low doses, restaging, etc--but y'all who haven't seen the data are far more confident than those who have. How does that help?). This non-emergence of the Kevetrin story is the major reason for lack of movement. Along with that, however, there was another--sort of a betrayal of trust. I refer to the "Prurisol trial starts next month" announcements from the beginning of 2013.
The long and the short of it, nothing has happened to create excitement, except for the Polymedix asset acquisition which would have made a greater impression if it was not done by abandoning the Prurisol PoC and the lousy explanations given to justify it, whatever the real ones are. And we were left to speculate about the real reason. This may be how corporations are run. But then some people feel they don't have to buy it. Right now, no number of impending clinical study announcement on every Monday by Leo will impress anybody. We need CLINICAL data. We need actual studies commencing.
In the earlier months of 2012 Leo kind of whipped up investor excitement by dropping hints about major Pharma interest in Prurisol. Those who bought that story were let down.
All of this is not to say that Kevetrin will not come through with flying colors. However, we do not see the patients in the cohorts or what happens to them, and the best hopes we maintain are still that--hopes. It is not that some collaboration with major Pharma on favorable terms will not happen. However, we are not buying words any more.
Let me state this as gently as I can since I am an investor in this stock and I want it to go up and I think it has potential and almost zero risk of total loss. It does not help that a company's chief executive and scientific officers (and the only officers of any kind) resort to hype. This hype is talking about other stocks that went up 10 fold and saying CTIX is going to do that because "we are going to do a PoC in Europe." Enough said. That kind of talk and PR after PR on plans and hopes do not characterize companies with substance.
The stock price may also have something to do with Aspire, Polymedix trustee, and others who exercised warrants (and who knows? some early buyers with large position?) selling. When things are happening in terms of progress such sales don't make much of an impact. I really do not consider the present state dismal. One solid advance on any of the multiple fronts will reverse the apathy and slow decline.
However, investors are right to ask "Where is the beef?" Where is the action? Where is the trial? You and I believe that they are coming. But we are not enough to keep the price up.
On another note, a steady run up to be sustained over many quarters takes greater certitude about products, and then real earnings. I don't think the fluctuations in CTIX price last year were very severe at all (that is just my sense of "severe", probably because I did not buy over $2). Most established stocks do this. But this is a growth stock that is currently not acting like one. It is simply that people want to see the "growth" part. They are waiting for it. Meanwhile the status quo does not persuade those who have not committed already to come on board.
I expect all this will change by the end of this year. I HOPE it will change by the end of the year.
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