Another nice post on iFlub . . . it does happen on occasion. There are posters I respect on iFlub . . . and there are the "bullies" I disdain.
I Need Help Tuesday, 11/12/13 08:46:47 PM
Re: None
Post # of 45882
It is what it is. I am disappointed in the way CTIX has traded the last several months, even the past 11 months. At times this is a difficult stock to figure. The potential is so great, but the stock has not delivered. CTIX remains my largest holding, and my least profitable.
Some observations:
1) Volume is still so... low. Investor eyes are definitely not on CTIX. I am still waiting (maybe in vain) to see if the ongoing conference will make any impact. From recent trading, does not appear so. Volume does pick up on days of heavy selling (like today). Sold shares are absorbed fairly well. No panic selling. Thinly traded market, so price can rebound quickly on any sustained buying (which has not materialized for some time).
2) In a quick reading of the recent 10Q, several things caught my attention. The cash burn rate for the past few months was higher than I anticipated, probably due to the larger portfolio of products in the pipeline. There seems to be organic selling by the company of common shares into the market--about 700,000 per month. There were 1 million warrants exercised at $1 each in September (latest month). There are over 39 million warrants exercisable at $0.14 per share. Doubtful many of these will be exercised in the immediate term, but quite an overhang. About $4.7 million has been added to the balance sheet from accumulation of patents from PolyMedix (a good thing).
3) With the low volume, company selling and probable warrant conversions for the purpose of selling has contributed to the weak PPS. Call it by whatever name, mild dilution going on. And, this is not a criticism. Companies like CTIX have no revenues, so they must dilute, borrow, or both in order to finance activities. There is a race going on: the advancement of events which lead towards eventual revenues (a more valuable company) versus dilution and borrowing (a less valuable company).
4) I agree with akamaii's recent post, CTIX appears to be trading in accordance with technicals. Resistance and support levels are being respected (at least for now).
I am still hopeful for some really good news forthcoming. One never knows when CTIX is involved. I still expect there more likely to be good news than bad. For me, this is a mildly painful waiting game. Am still quite optimistic.
Full disclosure: Most of my buys were closer to the highs (I had only discovered CTIX late Dec. 2012--near the high). I was sold on the fundamentals then; and also, the near euphoric unanimity of this board (lesson learned about boards in general). I have profitably traded CTIX, and am at a slight loss at present prices.
From my experiences with iHub, CTIX (one of my earliest investments since retiring), and many other stock investments , I have come to value good hard information presented by posters. But, as I have often said, I find value in almost all posts. I would rank posts as follows: 1) informative posts (based on facts)--including links and leads for continued DD, 2) reasoned opinions, supported by information (good or bad), and lastly 3) pump or dump type posts. I even find value in the third type, because it allows me to indirectly gage the sentiment of some.
Since retiring, I decided to take investing up as a hobby. Since then, I have come across many valuable resources. Sometimes, I discover resources and leads through message boards. And yes, there are many boards. I also have come to find many incredible companies with potentially disruptive technologies , like CTIX. I have also found many other companies and investment vehicles (like ETF's) which have proven profitable for me. My point here being, there is a huge investment universe out there. CTIX is like one very bright star in the galaxy.
I Need Help Tuesday, 11/12/13 08:46:47 PM
Re: None
Post # of 45882
It is what it is. I am disappointed in the way CTIX has traded the last several months, even the past 11 months. At times this is a difficult stock to figure. The potential is so great, but the stock has not delivered. CTIX remains my largest holding, and my least profitable.
Some observations:
1) Volume is still so... low. Investor eyes are definitely not on CTIX. I am still waiting (maybe in vain) to see if the ongoing conference will make any impact. From recent trading, does not appear so. Volume does pick up on days of heavy selling (like today). Sold shares are absorbed fairly well. No panic selling. Thinly traded market, so price can rebound quickly on any sustained buying (which has not materialized for some time).
2) In a quick reading of the recent 10Q, several things caught my attention. The cash burn rate for the past few months was higher than I anticipated, probably due to the larger portfolio of products in the pipeline. There seems to be organic selling by the company of common shares into the market--about 700,000 per month. There were 1 million warrants exercised at $1 each in September (latest month). There are over 39 million warrants exercisable at $0.14 per share. Doubtful many of these will be exercised in the immediate term, but quite an overhang. About $4.7 million has been added to the balance sheet from accumulation of patents from PolyMedix (a good thing).
3) With the low volume, company selling and probable warrant conversions for the purpose of selling has contributed to the weak PPS. Call it by whatever name, mild dilution going on. And, this is not a criticism. Companies like CTIX have no revenues, so they must dilute, borrow, or both in order to finance activities. There is a race going on: the advancement of events which lead towards eventual revenues (a more valuable company) versus dilution and borrowing (a less valuable company).
4) I agree with akamaii's recent post, CTIX appears to be trading in accordance with technicals. Resistance and support levels are being respected (at least for now).
I am still hopeful for some really good news forthcoming. One never knows when CTIX is involved. I still expect there more likely to be good news than bad. For me, this is a mildly painful waiting game. Am still quite optimistic.
Full disclosure: Most of my buys were closer to the highs (I had only discovered CTIX late Dec. 2012--near the high). I was sold on the fundamentals then; and also, the near euphoric unanimity of this board (lesson learned about boards in general). I have profitably traded CTIX, and am at a slight loss at present prices.
From my experiences with iHub, CTIX (one of my earliest investments since retiring), and many other stock investments , I have come to value good hard information presented by posters. But, as I have often said, I find value in almost all posts. I would rank posts as follows: 1) informative posts (based on facts)--including links and leads for continued DD, 2) reasoned opinions, supported by information (good or bad), and lastly 3) pump or dump type posts. I even find value in the third type, because it allows me to indirectly gage the sentiment of some.
Since retiring, I decided to take investing up as a hobby. Since then, I have come across many valuable resources. Sometimes, I discover resources and leads through message boards. And yes, there are many boards. I also have come to find many incredible companies with potentially disruptive technologies , like CTIX. I have also found many other companies and investment vehicles (like ETF's) which have proven profitable for me. My point here being, there is a huge investment universe out there. CTIX is like one very bright star in the galaxy.
