ORLANDO, FLA., Nov. 12, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- To satisfy an increasing worldwide demand for energy, the electrical power generation industry is expected to procure nearly 11,400 new industrial gas turbine machines over the coming decade, Forecast International said at the Power-Gen International conference taking place this week at the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando, Fla. According to the Newtown, Conn.-based aerospace market intelligence company, the value of this production will reach nearly $200 billion in constant 2013 U.S. dollars.
"As the growing demand for gas turbine machines becomes translated into orders, over the next 10 years we foresee gas turbine production for electrical power generation rising from 1,043 units this year to a peak of 1,262 in 2022," said William Schmalzer, Senior Power Systems Analyst. Orders in the near term will come from customers outside North America – primarily China and India, according to Schmalzer.
During the 10-year forecast period, General Electric is expected to garner 25 percent of the market in terms of production, closely followed by Caterpillar's Solar Turbines, with 24 percent. In terms of value of production, GE will also have the lion's share, with 47 percent, with Siemens following in second place with about 16 percent.
Gas turbine machines with a power output of 125 MW and larger are projected to account for over 20 percent of total gas turbine production in the decade to come. In that group are the GE Energy Frame 7 and Frame 9, the Siemens SGT5-2000E/3000E/3000F/4000F/5000F/6000G and the newer Siemens SGT5-8000H, the Alstom GT24/26 and Type 13E, and the Mitsubishi Model 501 and 701 series. In terms of value, this group will garner some 66 percent ($133.2 billion).
Higher up the scale, given the current need for new baseload capacity, as well as for power plant capacity additions, Forecast International believes that the worldwide demand for the latest technology gas-turbine-based power plants will result in modest production of the super-large gas turbine machines – those of 180 MW and larger. Those machines can be expected to be procured by China, North Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil, and the Middle East.
In recent years, the power generation market has been heavily oriented toward gas turbines, which are highly efficient and reliable power producers, especially in baseload operation. Now, however, operators of combined heat and power (CHP) plants have options, and gas reciprocating engine and large diesel engine advances have made these options viable alternatives. Nevertheless, above 20 MW, gas turbines are still almost always the preferred option.
The demand for electricity will continue to grow and new power plants will be built to provide the power. "However, companies that build and supply the plants will need to adopt new methods of doing business, including buying/building their own pipelines, employing computerized systems for fuel supply, and acquiring their own CNG/LNG oceangoing mega-tankers," said Schmalzer.
Forecast International, Inc. ( www.forecastinternational.com ) is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. To arrange an interview with Forecast International's editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President, Research & Editorial Services (203) 426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com . Questions regarding sales may be directed to sales@forecast1.com .
William Schmalzer, Senior Power Systems Analyst Phone: (203) 426-0800 Fax: (203) 270-8919 Web site: www.forecastinternational.com E-mail: Forecast International, Inc. 22 Commerce Rd. Newtown, CT 06470 USA
