Almost half of TV viewing to be App-based by 2020

In a rather bold prediction, a new report from The Diffusion Group is forecasting that by 2020 nearly half of all video viewing will be happening outside of a legacy pay-TV service or a television set such as via an application dedicated to a specific video service.

In The Future of TV – A View from 2013 , TDG asserts that in a shifting quantum media landscape video viewing will shift away from legacy pay-TV environments such as the living room television, and toward broadband and non-TV video platforms and app-enabled secondary screens such as tablets, which will in essence serve as second TVs.

As Internet set-top boxes, game consoles, and smart TVs themselves eventually come to support full-blown third-party video app stores, TDG expects a substantial portion of TV viewing will transition from the current linear broadcast model to the app TV model. Indeed Joel Espelien, TDG senior analyst and author of the new report, believes that the use of second screens like smartphones and tablets will pave the way to what it calls a full app-based ecosystem which will train users how to visit an app store, search and locate content, and download their own selection of third-party applications onto their devices.

“During the course of the next seven years, the app ecosystem will extend to the ancillary devices that link television sets to the Internet. We’re not talking about a few apps on a smart TV, but full-fledged apps stores like those offered by Google and Apple. Moreover, Espelien observed, “This shift is inevitable, supported as it is by strong forces of shifting consumer demand, technology evolution, developer interest and marketing necessity … The days of a standard TV user interface are over, and search will come to dominate TV discovery just as it dominates Internet discovery today.”

Though it predicts a brave new world, TDG also cautioned that the shift will happen gradually. The pace of change it believes will be hindered by industry inertia, device replacement cycles, and resistance to change by the legacy TV viewing audience.