Understanding Moderna's Stock Movement Amid H5N1 Developments

Understanding Moderna's Stock Movement

Shares of Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) recently surged by over 12% following the unfortunate news of the first confirmed death from the H5N1 bird flu in the United States. The stock saw an even greater rise, peaking at over 14%, before experiencing a pullback later in the session. By after-hours trading, shares were priced at $47.53, with further declines observed subsequently.

During significant stock movements like this, it's vital for investors to pause and assess the situation comprehensively. The recent spikes in MRNA stock seem to be largely reactionary. With short interest hovering around 11%, it's plausible that an influx of buying could lead to some short covering.

This reaction is not entirely unfounded, as Moderna received a notable $176 million grant from the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) in 2023. This funding aims to develop an updated mRNA vaccine targeting the H5N12 virus, which is currently undergoing early-stage testing. While speculative in nature, this development has stirred interest among investors, who may seek to leverage potential short position losses, although sustaining a rally could be challenging.

Is Moderna One of the Best Stocks of 2025?

Despite a consensus Hold rating among analysts for Moderna, the company has generated considerable buzz, recently making Barron’s list of stocks to watch for 2025. The broad potential of Moderna's pipeline has analysts feeling optimistic.

Moderna is anticipating a total of 10 new vaccine approvals over the next three years, which includes three that are set to launch in 2025. This pipeline is not just limited to vaccinations against respiratory viruses; Moderna is also collaborating with Merck (NASDAQ: MRK) on developing innovative cancer vaccines, marking the company's entry into personalized medicine.

One of the most advanced candidates is V940-Keytruda, currently in Phase III trials and focusing on melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and certain refractory lung cancers. As part of this partnership, Moderna aims to craft unique mRNA treatments tailored to the genetic mutations present in the tumors of individual patients. Each treatment, or mRNA INT, is designed to stimulate the immune system specifically against the unique cancer cells of each patient.

Under this collaboration, Moderna secured a $250 million upfront payment from Merck, agreeing to share development costs and profits equally should the vaccine attain commercial status.

Making the Numbers Add Up

The potential additional revenue from new vaccine approvals could substantially impact Moderna's financial outlook. Currently, the company generates around $3 billion annually with a strong cash reserve of $9 billion. This financial cushion surpasses the revenues of many biotech firms, even those with market-ready products.

Most of Moderna's revenue typically accumulates in the third and fourth quarters, coinciding with flu season in the Northern Hemisphere. For instance, the company reported $1.9 billion in revenue during its November earnings call, bringing the total for the first three quarters of the year to $2.2 billion.

However, a significant concern has been the company's R&D expenditure, which, despite reductions, remains high at around $4.7 billion per year. Funding for R&D was heavily reliant on the substantial profits from its COVID-19 vaccine, but as those revenues have diminished, Moderna's profitability has come into question. The decline led to a staggering 60% drop in MRNA stock throughout 2024, marking it as one of the poorest performing stocks in the medical sector.

Sell This News and Wait for More

With the anticipation of the company's fourth-quarter earnings report not arriving until February, it is not unusual for traders to capitalize on the recent gains in MRNA stock.

This creates a unique moment for investors. Many are keenly awaiting updates on the company's ongoing pipeline projects.

Analyst consensus suggests a price target of $79.50 for MRNA stock, indicating a potential upside of nearly 77% from the recent closing price. However, analysts are divided on the stock's future, hinting at an uncertain journey ahead for Moderna in the competitive market.

Frequently Asked Questions

What prompted the recent surge in Moderna's stock?

The spike was largely triggered by the first confirmed death from the H5N1 bird flu in the United States, which led investors to react to potential implications for Moderna's vaccine developments.

What is Moderna's outlook for 2025?

Analysts remain optimistic about Moderna's prospects, expecting several new vaccine approvals and recognition on lists of stocks to watch for the coming years.

How much is Moderna investing in R&D?

Moderna's R&D spending is expected to be around $4.7 billion annually, significantly influenced by past profits from the COVID-19 vaccine.

What is the significance of the partnership with Merck?

This partnership aims to develop personalized cancer vaccines, showcasing Moderna's commitment to advancing treatments in personalized medicine.

What should investors consider before making decisions?

Investors should analyze the market's mixed opinions on Moderna and monitor updates related to the company's vaccine pipeline and upcoming earnings reports.

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