Top Retail Stocks to Watch During Back-to-School Season
Back-to-School Shopping Significance for Retailers
The second half of the year brings an exciting time for retailers as back-to-school shopping season kicks off, marking it as the second biggest retail season after the holidays. According to estimates from industry experts, back-to-school spending is expected to hit significant numbers.
In a recent forecast, it was projected that U.S. consumers would spend around $38.8 billion on back-to-school supplies this year, averaging approximately $874.68 per household. While this figure reflects a decrease from last year's record high, many parents anticipate higher spending this year, predicting a total of $1,230 to prepare their children for the school year ahead.
This uptick in expected spending offers a strategic opportunity for investors to identify potential retail winners in anticipation of strong earnings reports, with many retailers set to unveil financial results by late summer.
1. Walmart Continues to Shine as a Retail Powerhouse
Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) has showcased impressive growth, delivering a total return exceeding 39% over the last year and an impressive 144% in the past five years. Throughout varying economic conditions, including a global pandemic and inflationary pressures, Walmart has reinforced its status as a solid investment opportunity.
While Walmart has faced challenges from shifts in consumer spending, the back-to-school season is essential, and price-conscious shoppers are likely to flock to Walmart for its affordability. The company's earnings guidance for the upcoming fiscal year indicates projected earnings per share in the range of $2.50 to $2.60, suggesting stability in its financial performance.
Analysts have set a consensus price target of $106.67 for WMT stock, indicating the potential for an 11% increase from earlier trading levels. Investors also anticipate a dividend increase, which would mark 54 consecutive years of growth in Walmart's dividend payouts.
2. DICK’S Sporting Goods: An Omnichannel Leader
DICK’S Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE: DKS) has established itself as a leading retailer for student athletic equipment, an integral part of back-to-school shopping. The company recently completed its DICK’S Deal Days event, enhancing its appeal among consumers.
The past five years have seen a notable boost in DICK’S online presence, which played a key role in its successful performance during recent years. Currently trading around $212 per share, DKS stock closely aligns with analysts' consensus price of approximately $219, suggesting potential upside.
Moreover, the recent acquisition of Foot Locker (NYSE: FL), expected to finalize in the latter half of 2025, could further enhance DICK’S growth outlook, making it a stock worth watching for back-to-school shopping.
3. Target: A Unique Value Proposition
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) has faced significant hurdles as one of the most challenging retail stocks in recent years. Despite being recognized as a dividend king with 54 years of consecutive dividend growth, Target has reported a slight negative total return over the past several years.
Nonetheless, recent developments offer potential catalysts for the stock's recovery. Recent tariff agreements with Vietnam may provide more predictable cost structures for sourcing goods, allowing Target to navigate challenges without passing increased costs onto consumers.
Furthermore, changes in leadership may be on the horizon, raising hopes for a fresh strategic direction. With TGT stock trading at just 11 times earnings and a low price-to-sales ratio, investors are positioned to benefit from any improvements in revenue, enhancing the stock's attractiveness.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the significance of the back-to-school season for retailers?
The back-to-school season is crucial for retailers as it marks the second largest shopping period after the holiday season, driving substantial consumer spending on supplies and apparel.
How much are consumers expected to spend on back-to-school shopping?
This year, consumers are projected to spend around $38.8 billion on back-to-school items, with households averaging approximately $1,230 to get ready for the school year.
Which retail stocks are highlighted for back-to-school shopping?
The article highlights Walmart (NYSE: WMT), DICK’S Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS), and Target (NYSE: TGT) as key stocks to consider during the back-to-school season.
What factors influence Walmart’s performance during back-to-school shopping?
Walmart's ability to attract price-sensitive shoppers during this critical shopping season, coupled with its consistent growth in earnings and dividend payments, supports its strong performance.
How is DICK'S Sporting Goods positioned for back-to-school shopping?
DICK’S commitment to enhancing its omnichannel presence and its recent acquisition of Foot Locker position it well to capture increased demand during the back-to-school season.
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