TD Securities Adjusts BlackBerry Ratings Amid QNX Growth
TD Securities Changes BlackBerry's Rating
BlackBerry Ltd. (NYSE:BB) has caught the eye of Wall Street once more. This renewed interest emerges as analysts reevaluate the company's trajectory in light of its QNX automotive software segment, which has shown considerable growth, along with stabilizing trends in secure communications.
Expanding Contracts and Market Presence
The company is not sitting idle; it has been active in securing new contracts and entering adjacent markets. Moreover, it is making headway due to a recovering automotive sector that is now starting to revive projects that had been postponed.
Analyst Insights on BlackBerry
In a recent analysis, TD Securities analyst Daniel Chan provided a Hold rating on BlackBerry's stock, lowering it from a previous Buy stance. He raised his price target to $5 from $4, citing a strong operational performance yet highlighting limited upside as a reason for his rating change. This adjustment follows a remarkable 61% stock rally since late 2024.
QNX Performance Drivers
Chan pointed out alleviating macroeconomic pressures that are lifting the demand for QNX developer licenses. This has led to a notable growth rate of approximately 15% in the last fiscal quarter. He noted QNX’s competitive position, mentioning a significant eight-figure deal in Europe with a tier-1 automaker and noted the added impetus in the Chinese market.
BlackBerry's Future Growth Areas
Beyond automotive, QNX's potential applications are expanding into industrial automation, as BlackBerry has already secured significant contracts in this sector. According to Chan, this diversification could prove beneficial for the company as it navigates future growth.
Secure Communications Revenue Insights
Following the divestiture of its Cylance division, Chan anticipates that Secure Communications will stabilize, bolstered by government contracts. Although net revenue retention remains at 93%, he sees the growth in annual recurring revenue as an encouraging factor.
Future Projections for Fiscal 2026
Chan has projected that for fiscal 2026, revenue from Secure Communications might decline by 22% year-over-year, while revenue from the QNX segment is expected to rise by 12%, with adjusted EBITDA reaching approximately $97 million.
Valuation Considerations
The $5 target was reached by applying valuation multiples of 9.5x to 10.5x on the projected EBITDA for Secure Communications and a higher range of 37.5x to 38.5x for QNX. This reflects BlackBerry’s premium valuation due to its positioning in the automotive software sector. Chan concluded that the current trading price already reflects much of the company’s recent advancements.
Market Response and Price Action
Highlighting recent market behavior, BlackBerry shares have seen a decrease of 3.89%, with the latest trading price noted at $4.56.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is BlackBerry's current stock rating?
TD Securities recently assigned a Hold rating to BlackBerry, changing it from a Buy.
What are the growth prospects for QNX?
QNX has shown an approximate growth rate of 15% in the last quarter and has potential expansion into industrial automation.
What is Daniel Chan's price target for BlackBerry?
The price target set by Daniel Chan is $5, reflecting confidence in BlackBerry’s operational growth despite recent rating changes.
How does BlackBerry's Secure Communications division trend?
Secure Communications is expected to stabilize due to government contracts, though revenue may drop by 22% year-over-year for fiscal 2026.
What is the latest trading price for BlackBerry shares?
The shares were reported at $4.56, reflecting a decrease of 3.89% as of the latest market check.
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