So actually spot was above 170 from Jan-Aug of 2011,peaking at 191.90 in Feb 2011-as reported at that time (charts and graphs dont do justice to some of the shorter term fluctuations as we all know from our stock charts over a period of months and years) and experts were predicting 200-250/ton by end of 2012.
As I've noted before if China had 10% growth for 3 years until this year that is at least a 33% larger base,so the present reported 7.5% growth on a 33% larger base is equivalent to a 10% growth rate 3 years ago. Iron does tend to go in cycles in last few years but I remember reading about new speculative iron derivatives markets in Aug 2011 just before price began crashing. China also created that new iron forum which big producers were imo pressured to join. So I wonder about the effects of those things,especially when an Aug 9,2012 article I posted said iron inventories were falling.
Seems strange prices would fall so much so fast-takes several years to bring new mines into production while older mines are being depleted-especially in China -where domestically ore has fallen from an average of 30% in dec 2010 at a cost of 150/ton (often in underground mines- agmetalminer 12-13-10) to less than 20% now, w some Chinese mines as low as 4%(doc). Thus that agmetalminer article had said in Dec 2010 that the Chinese domestic cost of production of 150/ton for their poor average % underground mines would set the floor for iron prices.
CWRN does have ca 130k tons of fertilizer product separated out from the publicly reported ca 210k tons of 0-1m waste by the trommel (see trommel pro calculations in stickies) so like iggy etc I've wondered whether that might be played during low iron prices-as price of fert is probably not affected much by the price of iron. Of course, if as reported publicly before, CWRN entered into a JV w OMRI-the largest west coast organic fertilizer distributor-the fert could be processed further to prices of 330-550/ton, as previously publicly reported.
juniors do have lower costs than the big players and I assume that would be esp true of CWRN as Bob has been known for being very cost conscious-e.g acquiring expensive equipment like the cat 375 for a small fraction of new prices and refurbishing themselves.
Plus the sales price of the ca 210k tons processed by the trommel should easily give CWRN a negative cost of production. I've posted charts etc whereby some juniors have negative cost due to premium ore alone.
Would also be nice to know the cement revenue stream as somebody else publicly reported in Feb was paying much of the overhead-something to add to our wishlist of things to see in the next PR.
