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Posted On: 08/28/2025 3:54:58 PM
Post# of 156689
From Reddit, earlier, a good read and justification for our future price.
Leronlimab/CYDY Valuation (From Doc4LL, an approved member, although a new profile)
First, I will share with you what my limited qualifications are so that you can decide the veracity of my conjectures. I have been a doctor for more than 30 years and have been Board certified in 3 different specialties (NONE of which are oncology, but I have been peripherally involved in a great many patients undergoing Cancer treatment through the years). I understand the science better than most, but far from perfectly. I have also done all of my own investments and have probably looked at more than a 1000 balance sheets of companies that I have considered investing in during my 30+ years. So, hopefully, my thoughts on all of this, as imperfect as they are, have some basis in reality.
The posts on r/Livimmune center have centered predominantly on what is the value of Leronlimab, and what ultimate price might we see in the future on the CYDY stock we all own. There is also a great deal of speculation on which BP company might ultimately form a partnership with us or make a frank buy out. Due to the mechanism of action of Leronlimab and its CCR5 blockade, this drug has an ENORMOUS number of disease indications. This is a great thing when discussing the scope and breadth of diseases Leronlimab should be able to treat (given continued positive results in larger population clinical studies), but it makes valuing this company challenging. So. Lets just look at ONE big disease…CANCER, and how it could increase the value to ONE BP company, MERCK since that seems to be the most logical and frequently quoted BP potential partner here on this forum). Merck sells the number one drug on the planet (by sales volume) Keytruda (pembrolizumab) at 29.5 billion USD for 2024. . The mechanism of action of OUR drug, Leronlimab drug is that it binds to CCR5 and amongst a myriad of other actions, It acts to upregulate the expression of PD-L1 on many cell lines, but, most importantly, on many CANCER cell lines.
So what exactly does Keytruda do? It blocks the interaction between PD-1 and it’s ligands PD-L1 and PD-L2. It is this interaction that prevents MANY of our bodies immune cells from doing the job they were made for, which is killing foreign invaders (nonself). Cancer is the ultimate foreign invader, and unfortunately, derives from our own normal cells that have had a change in their DNA to turn into Frankenstein’s monster, so to speak. The PD-1/ PD-L1 axis is much like a pair of sunglasses that are too dark to see well. So the immune cells just see a dark blob like all the other villagers and don’t recognize him for the monster that he really is. Then Frankenstein uses his fancy soothing RANTES language (in a CCR5+ cancer cell in the ABSENCE of Leronlimab) and actually persuades the villagers with their lighted torches to work with him instead of against him. Keytruda helps to remove the sunglasses so he can better see the identity of this foreign invader (and Leronlimab helps put on ear muffs so Frankenstein can’t persuade them with his mesmerizing RANTES speech). So now the villagers (multiple immune cells) can go back to driving Frankenstein out of the village and finally burning him at the stake! Unfortunately, only about 15% of cancers have PD-L1 on their surfaces, so Keytruda can only act on that small minority of cancers. But, wait, Leronlimab can upregulate PD-L1 expression on cancers cells to possibly as high as 88% at the 700mg dose. But that is only for the cells which are CCR5+. The total number of cancer cells that are CCR5+ is somewhat difficult to assess but seems to be somewhere between 50-60% (I anyone can find a more definitive estimate out there please let me know!)
For the purposes of this valuation model of what Leronlimab could be worth to Merck, let’s assume that all tumor cells out there average just slightly higher than 50% CCR5+ and that Leronlimab can upregulate PD-L1 expression to 88%. Then we come up with a figure of 45% of tumors could be “eligible” to now be treated with Keytruda. This is now 3 times the market that Merck can currently treat. Current sales for 2025 are 29.5 billion dollars. So multiple this x 3 and you get 88.5 BILLION USD. Or an increase of 59 billion dollars. Merck shows a gross profit of roughly 25% across the board for the last several years if you review their balance sheets. However, the INCREASED sales of about 59 billion dollars is using roughly the same overhead as before as far as R&D, etc., because they have already accounted for those costs before suddenly ramping up production of the drug. So the additional COST to Merck would be basically the cost of manufacturing the drug itself, which I would have to guess couldn’t be any more than 10% of what they sell it for. So, 90% of 59 billion dollars is 53.1 billion dollars. This is an estimate of the additional PROFIT that Merck could make in Keytruda profits. So, if Merck owned Leronlimab and GAVE it to all of the cancer patients with CCR5+ tumors at just the cost of manufacturing Leronlimab (something which would NEVER happen as we all know they would sell the drug at quite a substantial PROFIT!) they could make an additional 53.1 billion dollars PER YEAR!! So how long could they make this additional 53.1 billion/year? Well, the current patent is set to run out at the end of 2028, so 3 additional years there. However, as someone posted here on this forum, Merck doesn’t seem to be interested in extending the patent on this drug??! So why would that be, that makes no sense whatsoever, EVERY BP tries to do whatever they can, to find a way to extend their patent, so they can continue to charge those high dollar prices EXCLUSVELY for as long as possible. Why wouldn’t Merck try to extend the patent on the world’s TOP SELLING DRUG? Well, it turns out that Merck is currently before the FDA for a Subcutaneous/SUBQ injection (shot under the skin) version of Keytruda! So, if this SUBQ form gets approved soon (FDA vote for approval is currently scheduled for September 23rd). it gives Merck a NEW PATENT THAT COULD BE FOR AS LONG AS 12 MORE YEARS! So what is the math now on the Value of Leronlimab to Merck? 53.1 billion x 12 years is 637.2 BILLION dollars!! This valuation does not include any increase in market share (especially if there is a combo Keytruda/Leronlimab formulation), price increases over the course of 12 years, profits from actually selling Leronlimab for a profit instead of giving it away for free, or sales of Leronlimab FOR EVERY OTHER INDICATION we have been working on or will LIKELY find in the future. So the actual value could easily be a TRILLION dollars over the course of the patent for Keytruda and Leronlimab. So, let’s just say that CONSERVATIVELY erck pays CYDY 300 Billion given the valuation I have outlined above. That would make our shares worth 300 billion divided by 1.75 billion shares is just over $171 USD/share. Anyone here happy with that figure?! These are not pie in the sky hopes and dreams, this is based on data we have currently at hand (and you would have to believe that similar calculations have been done by the bean counters at Merck). All we must do is show upregulation of PD-L1 in our current studies at numbers that we have ALREADY previously shown (but on a VERY small scale). I do not believe we have to be deep into/completed with phase 3 clinical studies. Anything we find in those studies are GRAVY on top of the valuation. So, the value of our drug could change substantially to Merck (assuming they are the final suiter) if they get approval for their SUBQ version of their drug on September 23. So, I view that as a very key date. I believe, like so many others here, that we will have an answer here in the next 3+ months given everything else that has been intricately detailed by all of the wonderful posts by MGK-2, Upwithstock, waxonwaxoff, and many others here.
Leronlimab/CYDY Valuation (From Doc4LL, an approved member, although a new profile)
First, I will share with you what my limited qualifications are so that you can decide the veracity of my conjectures. I have been a doctor for more than 30 years and have been Board certified in 3 different specialties (NONE of which are oncology, but I have been peripherally involved in a great many patients undergoing Cancer treatment through the years). I understand the science better than most, but far from perfectly. I have also done all of my own investments and have probably looked at more than a 1000 balance sheets of companies that I have considered investing in during my 30+ years. So, hopefully, my thoughts on all of this, as imperfect as they are, have some basis in reality.
The posts on r/Livimmune center have centered predominantly on what is the value of Leronlimab, and what ultimate price might we see in the future on the CYDY stock we all own. There is also a great deal of speculation on which BP company might ultimately form a partnership with us or make a frank buy out. Due to the mechanism of action of Leronlimab and its CCR5 blockade, this drug has an ENORMOUS number of disease indications. This is a great thing when discussing the scope and breadth of diseases Leronlimab should be able to treat (given continued positive results in larger population clinical studies), but it makes valuing this company challenging. So. Lets just look at ONE big disease…CANCER, and how it could increase the value to ONE BP company, MERCK since that seems to be the most logical and frequently quoted BP potential partner here on this forum). Merck sells the number one drug on the planet (by sales volume) Keytruda (pembrolizumab) at 29.5 billion USD for 2024. . The mechanism of action of OUR drug, Leronlimab drug is that it binds to CCR5 and amongst a myriad of other actions, It acts to upregulate the expression of PD-L1 on many cell lines, but, most importantly, on many CANCER cell lines.
So what exactly does Keytruda do? It blocks the interaction between PD-1 and it’s ligands PD-L1 and PD-L2. It is this interaction that prevents MANY of our bodies immune cells from doing the job they were made for, which is killing foreign invaders (nonself). Cancer is the ultimate foreign invader, and unfortunately, derives from our own normal cells that have had a change in their DNA to turn into Frankenstein’s monster, so to speak. The PD-1/ PD-L1 axis is much like a pair of sunglasses that are too dark to see well. So the immune cells just see a dark blob like all the other villagers and don’t recognize him for the monster that he really is. Then Frankenstein uses his fancy soothing RANTES language (in a CCR5+ cancer cell in the ABSENCE of Leronlimab) and actually persuades the villagers with their lighted torches to work with him instead of against him. Keytruda helps to remove the sunglasses so he can better see the identity of this foreign invader (and Leronlimab helps put on ear muffs so Frankenstein can’t persuade them with his mesmerizing RANTES speech). So now the villagers (multiple immune cells) can go back to driving Frankenstein out of the village and finally burning him at the stake! Unfortunately, only about 15% of cancers have PD-L1 on their surfaces, so Keytruda can only act on that small minority of cancers. But, wait, Leronlimab can upregulate PD-L1 expression on cancers cells to possibly as high as 88% at the 700mg dose. But that is only for the cells which are CCR5+. The total number of cancer cells that are CCR5+ is somewhat difficult to assess but seems to be somewhere between 50-60% (I anyone can find a more definitive estimate out there please let me know!)
For the purposes of this valuation model of what Leronlimab could be worth to Merck, let’s assume that all tumor cells out there average just slightly higher than 50% CCR5+ and that Leronlimab can upregulate PD-L1 expression to 88%. Then we come up with a figure of 45% of tumors could be “eligible” to now be treated with Keytruda. This is now 3 times the market that Merck can currently treat. Current sales for 2025 are 29.5 billion dollars. So multiple this x 3 and you get 88.5 BILLION USD. Or an increase of 59 billion dollars. Merck shows a gross profit of roughly 25% across the board for the last several years if you review their balance sheets. However, the INCREASED sales of about 59 billion dollars is using roughly the same overhead as before as far as R&D, etc., because they have already accounted for those costs before suddenly ramping up production of the drug. So the additional COST to Merck would be basically the cost of manufacturing the drug itself, which I would have to guess couldn’t be any more than 10% of what they sell it for. So, 90% of 59 billion dollars is 53.1 billion dollars. This is an estimate of the additional PROFIT that Merck could make in Keytruda profits. So, if Merck owned Leronlimab and GAVE it to all of the cancer patients with CCR5+ tumors at just the cost of manufacturing Leronlimab (something which would NEVER happen as we all know they would sell the drug at quite a substantial PROFIT!) they could make an additional 53.1 billion dollars PER YEAR!! So how long could they make this additional 53.1 billion/year? Well, the current patent is set to run out at the end of 2028, so 3 additional years there. However, as someone posted here on this forum, Merck doesn’t seem to be interested in extending the patent on this drug??! So why would that be, that makes no sense whatsoever, EVERY BP tries to do whatever they can, to find a way to extend their patent, so they can continue to charge those high dollar prices EXCLUSVELY for as long as possible. Why wouldn’t Merck try to extend the patent on the world’s TOP SELLING DRUG? Well, it turns out that Merck is currently before the FDA for a Subcutaneous/SUBQ injection (shot under the skin) version of Keytruda! So, if this SUBQ form gets approved soon (FDA vote for approval is currently scheduled for September 23rd). it gives Merck a NEW PATENT THAT COULD BE FOR AS LONG AS 12 MORE YEARS! So what is the math now on the Value of Leronlimab to Merck? 53.1 billion x 12 years is 637.2 BILLION dollars!! This valuation does not include any increase in market share (especially if there is a combo Keytruda/Leronlimab formulation), price increases over the course of 12 years, profits from actually selling Leronlimab for a profit instead of giving it away for free, or sales of Leronlimab FOR EVERY OTHER INDICATION we have been working on or will LIKELY find in the future. So the actual value could easily be a TRILLION dollars over the course of the patent for Keytruda and Leronlimab. So, let’s just say that CONSERVATIVELY erck pays CYDY 300 Billion given the valuation I have outlined above. That would make our shares worth 300 billion divided by 1.75 billion shares is just over $171 USD/share. Anyone here happy with that figure?! These are not pie in the sky hopes and dreams, this is based on data we have currently at hand (and you would have to believe that similar calculations have been done by the bean counters at Merck). All we must do is show upregulation of PD-L1 in our current studies at numbers that we have ALREADY previously shown (but on a VERY small scale). I do not believe we have to be deep into/completed with phase 3 clinical studies. Anything we find in those studies are GRAVY on top of the valuation. So, the value of our drug could change substantially to Merck (assuming they are the final suiter) if they get approval for their SUBQ version of their drug on September 23. So, I view that as a very key date. I believe, like so many others here, that we will have an answer here in the next 3+ months given everything else that has been intricately detailed by all of the wonderful posts by MGK-2, Upwithstock, waxonwaxoff, and many others here.
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