(Total Views: 551)
Posted On: 03/23/2025 11:31:08 PM
Post# of 155811
Re: Goosebumbs22 #151217
It's tough to do this without knowing exactly what we'd be approved for. For fun we can say:
mTNBC market is $2-3 billion (all numbers are from ChatGPT)
mssCRC is $5-7 billion
HIV cure could be between $20-$50 billion
Alzheimer's is $12-15 billion
A drug that treats all organ fibrosis is looking at a market of $52-68 billion
Figuring out how much market share we could get on each indication would be difficult at this stage. Let's show some rages, like 10% and 25% of each indication. At 10% you're looking at $9.1-14.3 billion a year. At 25% you're looking at $22.75 - $35.75 billion a year.
Let's take the lowest projection of $9.1 billion in revenue per year. If we assume no growth and a discount rate of the long-term market average around 10% then our value would be $91 billion.
This is obviously very quick back of the napkin math based on ChatGPT numbers and some huge assumptions on my part but you see where pinning down a real best-case scenario is tough. This also ignores that those would be gross revenues and not net earnings so you probably wouldn't want to value based off of that but it would be good if we could show a potential BO company what kind of revenues they could expect to earn.
mTNBC market is $2-3 billion (all numbers are from ChatGPT)
mssCRC is $5-7 billion
HIV cure could be between $20-$50 billion
Alzheimer's is $12-15 billion
A drug that treats all organ fibrosis is looking at a market of $52-68 billion
Figuring out how much market share we could get on each indication would be difficult at this stage. Let's show some rages, like 10% and 25% of each indication. At 10% you're looking at $9.1-14.3 billion a year. At 25% you're looking at $22.75 - $35.75 billion a year.
Let's take the lowest projection of $9.1 billion in revenue per year. If we assume no growth and a discount rate of the long-term market average around 10% then our value would be $91 billion.
This is obviously very quick back of the napkin math based on ChatGPT numbers and some huge assumptions on my part but you see where pinning down a real best-case scenario is tough. This also ignores that those would be gross revenues and not net earnings so you probably wouldn't want to value based off of that but it would be good if we could show a potential BO company what kind of revenues they could expect to earn.
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