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Posted On: 03/18/2025 10:46:59 AM
Post# of 154875
My reply to the post on Reddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/Livimmune/comments/1...y_deal_is/
This analysis makes a strong case for an upcoming oncology partnership or acquisition for CYDY, but let’s break it down critically:
Strengths of the Argument:
Clear BP Interest Signals – The company explicitly prioritizing oncology and emphasizing return on investment suggests they are positioning themselves for a deal, not just drug development.
mTNBC Survival Data – If the reported results hold up under scrutiny and peer review, it could make CYDY a hot target for acquisition or licensing.
Strategic Timing – The mention of ESMO (May 2025) aligns with when BP typically makes moves based on new clinical data.
Financial Positioning – The lack of a fundraising announcement could imply they anticipate a significant capital infusion through a deal rather than share dilution.
Industry Precedents – The Gilead-Immunomedics deal ($21B) after Phase 2 data shows that BP does act decisively when they see strong survival benefit.
Potential Weaknesses and Risks:
Regulatory & Data Risk – CYDY has had past issues with the FDA, and while promising, survival data needs independent validation. BP won’t just take internal company statements at face value.
Competitive Landscape – mTNBC and CRC are crowded fields with multiple established and emerging therapies. Leronlimab must demonstrate superiority or synergy with existing treatments (e.g., Keytruda, Jemperli).
Financial Burn Rate – While not raising cash now is a bullish signal, it could backfire if no deal materializes, leading to a sudden and potentially unfavorable dilution.
BP’s Decision Process – While BP does move early on strong data, they also perform extensive due diligence. If survival data or MOA clarity isn’t strong enough, they could delay or pass.
Bottom Line:
The signs do indicate CYDY is in active discussions and preparing for a partnership or buyout.
May 2025 (ESMO) is a key event—if survival data is as good as implied, a deal announcement is plausible.
However, execution risk remains—BP interest doesn’t always translate to a deal, and competition/regulatory challenges could be hurdles.
Verdict: ???? Bullish, but cautiously optimistic. If no deal happens by mid-year, expect a cash raise.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Livimmune/comments/1...y_deal_is/
This analysis makes a strong case for an upcoming oncology partnership or acquisition for CYDY, but let’s break it down critically:
Strengths of the Argument:
Clear BP Interest Signals – The company explicitly prioritizing oncology and emphasizing return on investment suggests they are positioning themselves for a deal, not just drug development.
mTNBC Survival Data – If the reported results hold up under scrutiny and peer review, it could make CYDY a hot target for acquisition or licensing.
Strategic Timing – The mention of ESMO (May 2025) aligns with when BP typically makes moves based on new clinical data.
Financial Positioning – The lack of a fundraising announcement could imply they anticipate a significant capital infusion through a deal rather than share dilution.
Industry Precedents – The Gilead-Immunomedics deal ($21B) after Phase 2 data shows that BP does act decisively when they see strong survival benefit.
Potential Weaknesses and Risks:
Regulatory & Data Risk – CYDY has had past issues with the FDA, and while promising, survival data needs independent validation. BP won’t just take internal company statements at face value.
Competitive Landscape – mTNBC and CRC are crowded fields with multiple established and emerging therapies. Leronlimab must demonstrate superiority or synergy with existing treatments (e.g., Keytruda, Jemperli).
Financial Burn Rate – While not raising cash now is a bullish signal, it could backfire if no deal materializes, leading to a sudden and potentially unfavorable dilution.
BP’s Decision Process – While BP does move early on strong data, they also perform extensive due diligence. If survival data or MOA clarity isn’t strong enough, they could delay or pass.
Bottom Line:
The signs do indicate CYDY is in active discussions and preparing for a partnership or buyout.
May 2025 (ESMO) is a key event—if survival data is as good as implied, a deal announcement is plausible.
However, execution risk remains—BP interest doesn’t always translate to a deal, and competition/regulatory challenges could be hurdles.
Verdict: ???? Bullish, but cautiously optimistic. If no deal happens by mid-year, expect a cash raise.
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