(Total Views: 184)
Posted On: 05/23/2024 1:11:27 AM
Post# of 128257
Re: Steel Reserve #118308
Train wreck my ass. The Infrastructure and Chips and Science Bills alone are more than anything Trump ever did for this country. And of course Biden is not a treason weasel, insurrection inciting, doc stealing, imperfect phone call making, moronic prick. Good luck trying to ban contraception. Brilliant move.
Based on the historical correlations and the Dow’s year-to-date price-only gain of 5.6%, Biden’s chances of winning re-election are 58.8%. Those odds will rise if the stock market gains more between now and Election Day, and fall if the market declines.
Even if the electronic prediction markets weren’t sending such mixed messages, it would be hard to show that their track records are better than the stock market’s. That’s because, without a large sample, it’s very difficult for a pattern to meet traditional standards of statistical significance. The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), one of the oldest such instruments, began in 1988, for example. So its track record encompasses just nine presidential elections.
James Carville, former President Bill Clinton’s influential strategist during the 1992 election, famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” He used the line to remind Clinton’s campaign staff that all other issues pale in comparison to the economy as a determinant of whether the incumbent party retains the White House. Perhaps we should modify Carville’s line to “It’s the stock market, stupid.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-a...00226.html
Based on the historical correlations and the Dow’s year-to-date price-only gain of 5.6%, Biden’s chances of winning re-election are 58.8%. Those odds will rise if the stock market gains more between now and Election Day, and fall if the market declines.
Even if the electronic prediction markets weren’t sending such mixed messages, it would be hard to show that their track records are better than the stock market’s. That’s because, without a large sample, it’s very difficult for a pattern to meet traditional standards of statistical significance. The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), one of the oldest such instruments, began in 1988, for example. So its track record encompasses just nine presidential elections.
James Carville, former President Bill Clinton’s influential strategist during the 1992 election, famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” He used the line to remind Clinton’s campaign staff that all other issues pale in comparison to the economy as a determinant of whether the incumbent party retains the White House. Perhaps we should modify Carville’s line to “It’s the stock market, stupid.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-a...00226.html
(0)
(0)
