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Posted On: 04/19/2024 9:07:40 AM
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Trump’s Trial Is Already Wreaking Havoc on His Campaign
THE DEFENSE IS RESTLESS
The hush money trial was never going to be good for Trump, but the first week in court proved just how disruptive and damaging it will be for his 2024 bid.
Jake Lahut Politics Reporter
Updated Apr. 19, 2024 7:03AM EDT Published Apr. 19, 2024 4:48AM EDT
Photo Illustration by Luis G. Rendon/The Daily Beast/Getty
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-trial-is...e?ref=home
Welcome to Trail Mix, your 2024 election sanity guide. See something interesting on the trail? Email me at jake.lahut@thedailybeast.com. To get Trail Mix in your inbox, subscribe here for free.
This week, we take an early look at just how much Donald Trump’s Manhattan trial is derailing his campaign.
TRIAL AND ERROR
Even before Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York began, it was clear that the lengthy and demanding proceedings would fundamentally change his 2024 campaign.
But it only took a few days to show that Trump’s hush money trial will be even more damaging, more constraining, and more significant than anyone expected.
The headlines alone told the story. During the trial’s opening week, for instance, Trump arguably drew the most attention for appearing to fall asleep in the courtroom.
On Tuesday, The Daily Beast reported he was forced to decline an appearance at a big-money fundraiser in Texas for the House GOP because of the trial schedule, an early glimpse at just how much his party leadership will be limited.
And what did happen in court indicated that the trial could drag on even longer than the initial expectation of a two-month timeline—making stunts like Trump’s visit to a Harlem bodega on Tuesday even more likely as the campaign trail sits largely out of reach.
Taken together, Republicans are left with little more than stopgap solutions and, in some cases, a humbling realization of what’s to come—given that the embarrassing details of his alleged plot to pay off porn star Stormy Daniels are yet to emerge.
“I had sort of underestimated just the giant time-suck this is going to be for him as a candidate,” Alex Conant, a GOP strategist and a top aide on Marco Rubio’s 2016 campaign told The Daily Beast.
Crucially, it’s not just time, but money, being left on the table as the hush money case drags on.
“He could be raising six, seven figures pretty regularly at major-dollar events around the country at this point,” Conant said. “That’s literally what Biden is doing. So Trump’s fundraisers are probably frustrated that because he’s in New York, they can’t schedule that stuff.”
Republicans around the Trump campaign are resigning themselves to the new reality of a nominee stuck in court while his rival, President Joe Biden, has the trail largely to himself.
“President Trump’s campaign strategy is obviously going to be a little bit different,” a Trumpworld consultant told The Daily Beast, “but he’s going to put in the energy and time needed to win this election.”
In searching for a silver lining, Trump operatives are resorting to leaning heavily on the old adage that all publicity is good publicity.
As another Trump-aligned GOP strategist put it, at least “he’s getting more earned media than Biden. It’s just wall-to-wall coverage of Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump.”
Yet the Biden campaign doesn’t want to be out front every day competing with Trump for eyeballs over the trial. Instead, the Biden team is looking to silently troll Trump by avoiding direct mentions of the case in favor of blitzing the battleground states to strike a contrast with his record on issues like taxes and abortion.
The split screen highlights what Trump’s biggest loss may ultimately be whenever the trial ends.
“The most valuable commodity in any campaign is the candidate’s time,” Conant said. “It’s the only thing you can’t get more of. And the fact that he’s going to have to spend weeks in the courtroom is time his campaign isn’t going to get back.”
The Trump campaign did not return a request for comment.
After months of holding a lead against Biden in national and battleground state polling—something Trump didn’t enjoy during his runs in 2016 or 2020—the polls have tightened, and Republicans are still coming to grips with how constrained Trump will be for at least the next six to eight weeks, or longer.
Now that the Manhattan trial is underway, Trumpworld is left looking for makeshift alternatives and desperately waiting for something—the prosecution, the optics, anything—to turn public opinion against Democrats. The strategy turns on a cynical assumption: that voters will believe the prosecution from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is designed to harm Trump and has the blessing of Biden and Democratic leaders.
“We’re only at day three now, and I think this is gonna have a backfiring effect on Democrats, I really do,” the Trumpworld consultant insisted. “They are interfering with Trump’s ability to get on his plane and go to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia.”
Trump did that to himself with his clearly indictable behavior you wishful thinking f'ing moron.
Although sources around the Trump campaign said losing ground on fundraising is their biggest concern with the trial, they tried to downplay just how bad the situation could get as the former president continues to get badly outraised by Biden and siphons much of his haul to pay his legal bills.
There’s also a lingering worry that Trump’s courthouse steps routine, a core way of communicating during the trial, will become stale. But the Trump-aligned strategist said they’re not worried about that until “you guys”—meaning the political press—stop covering it so closely.
“I don’t think people are gonna get bored of it, man,” the strategist said. “People never know what he’s gonna fuckin’ say.”
Aside from relying on media coverage of the trial to boost small-dollar fundraising—a copy-and-paste strategy from Trump’s civil cases during the GOP primary—the campaign is also looking at ways to make the most out of the fundraising circuit around New York City during the trial.
“He’s gonna be right here in New York, and there’s a lot of big money here. I’ve also heard rumors of fundraisers in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, too,” the Trump-aligned strategist said.
For the Wednesday and weekend portions of the week when Trump won’t have to be in court, the radius broadens slightly, and he could easily hit rallies in nearby swing states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the strategist said. Trump is using his weekend trial break to travel to Wilmington, North Carolina, for a rally on Saturday night.
Early on Friday morning, the Trump campaign announced a late addition to the schedule: a rally in New Jersey on Saturday before he heads down to North Carolina.
Conant likened Trump’s scheduling quandaries to those of a sitting senator running for the presidency. It’s a tradeoff other presidential campaigns have had to deal with before, but unlike missing votes in the Senate, Trump can’t choose to skip court.
“It’s still something every senator who runs for president is challenged by,” Conant said, “and a lot of ’em end up skipping a lot of the votes because your time on the campaign trail is just so valuable.”
THE DEFENSE IS RESTLESS
The hush money trial was never going to be good for Trump, but the first week in court proved just how disruptive and damaging it will be for his 2024 bid.
Jake Lahut Politics Reporter
Updated Apr. 19, 2024 7:03AM EDT Published Apr. 19, 2024 4:48AM EDT
Photo Illustration by Luis G. Rendon/The Daily Beast/Getty
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-trial-is...e?ref=home
Welcome to Trail Mix, your 2024 election sanity guide. See something interesting on the trail? Email me at jake.lahut@thedailybeast.com. To get Trail Mix in your inbox, subscribe here for free.
This week, we take an early look at just how much Donald Trump’s Manhattan trial is derailing his campaign.
TRIAL AND ERROR
Even before Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York began, it was clear that the lengthy and demanding proceedings would fundamentally change his 2024 campaign.
But it only took a few days to show that Trump’s hush money trial will be even more damaging, more constraining, and more significant than anyone expected.
The headlines alone told the story. During the trial’s opening week, for instance, Trump arguably drew the most attention for appearing to fall asleep in the courtroom.
On Tuesday, The Daily Beast reported he was forced to decline an appearance at a big-money fundraiser in Texas for the House GOP because of the trial schedule, an early glimpse at just how much his party leadership will be limited.
And what did happen in court indicated that the trial could drag on even longer than the initial expectation of a two-month timeline—making stunts like Trump’s visit to a Harlem bodega on Tuesday even more likely as the campaign trail sits largely out of reach.
Taken together, Republicans are left with little more than stopgap solutions and, in some cases, a humbling realization of what’s to come—given that the embarrassing details of his alleged plot to pay off porn star Stormy Daniels are yet to emerge.
“I had sort of underestimated just the giant time-suck this is going to be for him as a candidate,” Alex Conant, a GOP strategist and a top aide on Marco Rubio’s 2016 campaign told The Daily Beast.
Crucially, it’s not just time, but money, being left on the table as the hush money case drags on.
“He could be raising six, seven figures pretty regularly at major-dollar events around the country at this point,” Conant said. “That’s literally what Biden is doing. So Trump’s fundraisers are probably frustrated that because he’s in New York, they can’t schedule that stuff.”
Republicans around the Trump campaign are resigning themselves to the new reality of a nominee stuck in court while his rival, President Joe Biden, has the trail largely to himself.
“President Trump’s campaign strategy is obviously going to be a little bit different,” a Trumpworld consultant told The Daily Beast, “but he’s going to put in the energy and time needed to win this election.”
In searching for a silver lining, Trump operatives are resorting to leaning heavily on the old adage that all publicity is good publicity.
As another Trump-aligned GOP strategist put it, at least “he’s getting more earned media than Biden. It’s just wall-to-wall coverage of Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump.”
Yet the Biden campaign doesn’t want to be out front every day competing with Trump for eyeballs over the trial. Instead, the Biden team is looking to silently troll Trump by avoiding direct mentions of the case in favor of blitzing the battleground states to strike a contrast with his record on issues like taxes and abortion.
The split screen highlights what Trump’s biggest loss may ultimately be whenever the trial ends.
“The most valuable commodity in any campaign is the candidate’s time,” Conant said. “It’s the only thing you can’t get more of. And the fact that he’s going to have to spend weeks in the courtroom is time his campaign isn’t going to get back.”
The Trump campaign did not return a request for comment.
After months of holding a lead against Biden in national and battleground state polling—something Trump didn’t enjoy during his runs in 2016 or 2020—the polls have tightened, and Republicans are still coming to grips with how constrained Trump will be for at least the next six to eight weeks, or longer.
Now that the Manhattan trial is underway, Trumpworld is left looking for makeshift alternatives and desperately waiting for something—the prosecution, the optics, anything—to turn public opinion against Democrats. The strategy turns on a cynical assumption: that voters will believe the prosecution from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is designed to harm Trump and has the blessing of Biden and Democratic leaders.
“We’re only at day three now, and I think this is gonna have a backfiring effect on Democrats, I really do,” the Trumpworld consultant insisted. “They are interfering with Trump’s ability to get on his plane and go to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia.”
Trump did that to himself with his clearly indictable behavior you wishful thinking f'ing moron.
Although sources around the Trump campaign said losing ground on fundraising is their biggest concern with the trial, they tried to downplay just how bad the situation could get as the former president continues to get badly outraised by Biden and siphons much of his haul to pay his legal bills.
There’s also a lingering worry that Trump’s courthouse steps routine, a core way of communicating during the trial, will become stale. But the Trump-aligned strategist said they’re not worried about that until “you guys”—meaning the political press—stop covering it so closely.
“I don’t think people are gonna get bored of it, man,” the strategist said. “People never know what he’s gonna fuckin’ say.”
Aside from relying on media coverage of the trial to boost small-dollar fundraising—a copy-and-paste strategy from Trump’s civil cases during the GOP primary—the campaign is also looking at ways to make the most out of the fundraising circuit around New York City during the trial.
“He’s gonna be right here in New York, and there’s a lot of big money here. I’ve also heard rumors of fundraisers in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, too,” the Trump-aligned strategist said.
For the Wednesday and weekend portions of the week when Trump won’t have to be in court, the radius broadens slightly, and he could easily hit rallies in nearby swing states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the strategist said. Trump is using his weekend trial break to travel to Wilmington, North Carolina, for a rally on Saturday night.
Early on Friday morning, the Trump campaign announced a late addition to the schedule: a rally in New Jersey on Saturday before he heads down to North Carolina.
Conant likened Trump’s scheduling quandaries to those of a sitting senator running for the presidency. It’s a tradeoff other presidential campaigns have had to deal with before, but unlike missing votes in the Senate, Trump can’t choose to skip court.
“It’s still something every senator who runs for president is challenged by,” Conant said, “and a lot of ’em end up skipping a lot of the votes because your time on the campaign trail is just so valuable.”
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