(Total Views: 583)
Posted On: 07/31/2023 6:04:03 PM
Post# of 153880
Re: Swinglikeseve #136343
yes, i look at it pretty simply. at $1, our market cap would be about $950 MM or so - so $10 would be around $9.5 Billion market cap - so i use $10 Bln for round numbers. i know that will be off based on some other stuff - but close enough.
but when we look at how biotech companies are valued - let's use 7X revenue per the recent Biogen deal (and that was on 2028 revenue), that $10 Bln valuation would only discount $1.5 billion in potential sales for Leronlimab. Most of us are here because we expect a greater potential revenue than $1.5 billion for this drug. Hence the excitement a few years ago, Nader's infamous "3 fingers / 3 figure market cap" fiasco, etc. While that all blew up spectacularly, the root of all of that was excitement over the massive value that will be assigned to generating significant revenue in the biotech world - which is a real thing.
but.......we have to generate the revenue - there's just no getting around that part of the process, and man it has been a rough road. during my 7 years here, it's always been "right around the corner". I feel like that poor bastard in Greek mythology who is dying of thirst, and the water keeps rising right up to his chin - just out of his range to drink it.
for me, getting this CEO hire right is the biggest thing to happen in the history of this company, because i'm not sure we can afford another re-do at this point. but, if we get the right person, and we get this hold lifted - we could be back on track - and i could see a partnership announced shortly thereafter. and at that point, sentiment could shift from extreme pessimism back to euphoria (well, it may take me a while to get to euphoria....)
but when we look at how biotech companies are valued - let's use 7X revenue per the recent Biogen deal (and that was on 2028 revenue), that $10 Bln valuation would only discount $1.5 billion in potential sales for Leronlimab. Most of us are here because we expect a greater potential revenue than $1.5 billion for this drug. Hence the excitement a few years ago, Nader's infamous "3 fingers / 3 figure market cap" fiasco, etc. While that all blew up spectacularly, the root of all of that was excitement over the massive value that will be assigned to generating significant revenue in the biotech world - which is a real thing.
but.......we have to generate the revenue - there's just no getting around that part of the process, and man it has been a rough road. during my 7 years here, it's always been "right around the corner". I feel like that poor bastard in Greek mythology who is dying of thirst, and the water keeps rising right up to his chin - just out of his range to drink it.
for me, getting this CEO hire right is the biggest thing to happen in the history of this company, because i'm not sure we can afford another re-do at this point. but, if we get the right person, and we get this hold lifted - we could be back on track - and i could see a partnership announced shortly thereafter. and at that point, sentiment could shift from extreme pessimism back to euphoria (well, it may take me a while to get to euphoria....)
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