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Posted On: 12/01/2022 6:49:02 AM
Post# of 148878
Article in WSJ yesterday..."Drug Firm Horizon Receives Takeover Interest"
For those who didn't read, Horizon develops treatments for rare autoimmune diseases, and does about 3.2 Billion in sales. Amgen, J&J and Sanofi have shown interest, and there is speculation that one of them could pay 20 billion.
The take-away for me is:
1. The backdrop remains incredibly attractive - big drug companies are fighting over acquisitions - to replenish expiring patents, and drive future growth.
2. 20 Billion would be 7X revenue. I had been assuming 5X - but either way, the valuations are crazy for an attractive company.
The key difference from us of course is that Horizon is generating revenue from an approved drug, obviously. But i'm encouraged - if we can simply get this hold lifted, and move toward revenue - we are in a great spot.
What i really wish - and don't fully understand - is that if these big drug companies are fighting over a company like this, why don't they take a bit of a leap of faith, and step up with a generous offer for a company that is pre-revenue but very promising.
Looking forward to next week and the call.
For those who didn't read, Horizon develops treatments for rare autoimmune diseases, and does about 3.2 Billion in sales. Amgen, J&J and Sanofi have shown interest, and there is speculation that one of them could pay 20 billion.
The take-away for me is:
1. The backdrop remains incredibly attractive - big drug companies are fighting over acquisitions - to replenish expiring patents, and drive future growth.
2. 20 Billion would be 7X revenue. I had been assuming 5X - but either way, the valuations are crazy for an attractive company.
The key difference from us of course is that Horizon is generating revenue from an approved drug, obviously. But i'm encouraged - if we can simply get this hold lifted, and move toward revenue - we are in a great spot.
What i really wish - and don't fully understand - is that if these big drug companies are fighting over a company like this, why don't they take a bit of a leap of faith, and step up with a generous offer for a company that is pre-revenue but very promising.
Looking forward to next week and the call.
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