True indeed, past history does not guarantee future results, however if one does not learn from history, they are doomed to repeat it. At least take history in account when making a decision. Yes, you CAN play Russian Roulette 100 times and not get the bullet, but that doesn't mean you're a genius.

As for my entrails, there's a reason they tell you that during a multiple choice (or in my case, multiple guess...lol) test, go with your first thought and don't second guess yourself as most often you will then make a wrong choice.