very strong homework there. the only very minor issue I have is the assumption around NPs package . most companies avoid a lawsuit at all costs so if he was removed for performance or other non criminal reasons he would get his package. most C levels have an exit package should they be removed from their role. this could purely be the deal he arranged at the signing of his employee contract and the Board agreed to give it to him.
other than that this is great logic and connecting of the dots