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Posted On: 02/01/2022 12:26:20 PM
Post# of 148894
Re: Evil Rabbit #117006
While the events and times are interesting, I don't see an immediate BO coming. Personally I'm hoping NP's termination was to make room for a strategic partnership to place a CEO aligned with the new partner....and possibly get a board seat or two? Maybe this is a NASH partner who wants direct oversight and involvement in other trials to potentially expand the partnership into other indications? I'd gladly ink a deal for NASH for $200M+ and low royalty to get us to an approval and advance other indications. Looking at a recent NASH deal from Nov 2021, GSK inked a deal for up to $1B with Arrowhead. Arrowhead received $120M upfront, an additional $30M when P2 started, another $100M for P3, plus another $780M + royalties for sales and other milestones. I didn't look into their drug, but seems like a reasonable NASH comparison given the leronlimab 700mg is a P2 trial (so similar deal would be $150M upfront + $100M upon the initiation of a P3 trial, etc.)?
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gsk-tak...aceuticals.
On the flipside, NP could've been terminated solely for lack of performance and running the company so recklessly. Given the success of leronlimab there is no reason our financial picture is so ugly.....NP did not de-risk or raise cash when COVID was in play and made CD12 a binary event, putting the company's future at significant risk. Granted many unexpected huddles developed since CD12 results.....FDA letter, 13D, Brazil trial delays and slow enrollment, Amarex, lawsuits, etc. But uncertainty is even more of a reason NP should've built a little cash runway when the opportunity was there. This scenario could mean they are trying to keep the doors open and get highest price for a BO to avoid bankruptcy? I am not sure what CYDY is worth in this scenario, but would think the HIV, cancer, COVID and NASH data is worth something to multiple BPs and if nothing else they should be interested enough to take a look at the results. I don't want to venture a guess, but would be curious of anyone knows of another biotech drug that was sold at salvage value to avoid bankruptcy?
These are two possible scenarios, but IMO most likely the answer lies somewhere in-between....maybe working on a partner deal, but will raise enough cash to keep the lights on until it gets finalized in the future? This could result in significant dilution. Ideally we could use some of the 200M shares to incentive a potential partner to some sort of equity agreement to offer more cash upfront as this would likely have an immediate positive ROI for them and us current shareholders as the share price would be all but guaranteed to move higher with any such deal.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gsk-tak...aceuticals.
On the flipside, NP could've been terminated solely for lack of performance and running the company so recklessly. Given the success of leronlimab there is no reason our financial picture is so ugly.....NP did not de-risk or raise cash when COVID was in play and made CD12 a binary event, putting the company's future at significant risk. Granted many unexpected huddles developed since CD12 results.....FDA letter, 13D, Brazil trial delays and slow enrollment, Amarex, lawsuits, etc. But uncertainty is even more of a reason NP should've built a little cash runway when the opportunity was there. This scenario could mean they are trying to keep the doors open and get highest price for a BO to avoid bankruptcy? I am not sure what CYDY is worth in this scenario, but would think the HIV, cancer, COVID and NASH data is worth something to multiple BPs and if nothing else they should be interested enough to take a look at the results. I don't want to venture a guess, but would be curious of anyone knows of another biotech drug that was sold at salvage value to avoid bankruptcy?
These are two possible scenarios, but IMO most likely the answer lies somewhere in-between....maybe working on a partner deal, but will raise enough cash to keep the lights on until it gets finalized in the future? This could result in significant dilution. Ideally we could use some of the 200M shares to incentive a potential partner to some sort of equity agreement to offer more cash upfront as this would likely have an immediate positive ROI for them and us current shareholders as the share price would be all but guaranteed to move higher with any such deal.
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Please do your own due diligence. All my posts and comments are not to be considered investment advice.
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