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Posted On: 01/30/2022 9:29:42 AM
Post# of 148899
The real question is… what if there is no buy out or partnership brewing? Can we make it through the whole year and have money left in the piggy bank?
Let’s assume we took what was our last known burn rate of 6 million a month and slowed down everything to drop it to a reasonable 4 million a month burn. Cutting a third is painful but possible in all businesses. If you have a monthly cost total this year of only 48 million plus payments to Samsung and a bond to pay for Amarex, we get that all done under 90 million. A number we could do right now at our stock price with 200 million shares to finance our needs at our current stock price.
What if we attacked this cost issues with only the top four indications to show immediate to quick revenue this year and let the others brew like we really have been already doing. We have indications just sitting right now and maybe this has been already occurring sitting on the back burner. You have to ask yourself why no Long Haulers… why no Covid severe… why no basket trial results or progress… have we already cut back to control our monthly burn? It seems we have…
Are we now only progressing the top four indications that can provide revenue? Like Covid Critical, mTNBC, HIV duel and a soon to be decided Nash? If you look at the costs of Covid Critical, mTNBC and HIV duel have minimal further investment in trials and applications to seek maybe some immediate revenue and especially a BTD in mTNBC and a EUA in Covid Critical these two ar quick ton provide revenue. HIV Duel is the closest application to complete but being fast tracked it is 8 months away for revenue with a fast tracked process. Is that to long? Not really.
Then comes Nash with the unmet medical need that has never had a drug to treat Nash. It doesn’t look likely that a BTD will help us with immediate open access sales because the FDA will want the same phase 3 results that every other drug has been held to. So we have another trial there before we are at revenue in Nash. Trial length in the phase 2 was 14 weeks but most other phase 3 trials were a year long. This is why a partner is real for Nash. If no partner is willing now do we continue on with Nash or let it simmer on the back burner even with great results. Because when it comes down to results the real ones the FDA will hold us to is the expensive biopsy results that all other trials have been held to that standard. I see IF we have no partner then Nash sits and simmers until we have either revenue cash flow or a partner to fund the phase 3 trial and application process with some upfront monies possible right away.
Other considerations to consider that we have all talked about is the gradual rise in stock price from news that may come from the other 3 indications as they progress to revenue. This allows us more value with our shares we have to finance our monthly burn with. With an immediate BTD on mTNBC we are in a possible open access sales immediately and we know that Trodelvy is taking in a 100 million a quarter and would love to be unseated as the standard of care for mTNBC with a a much better Leronlimab. This mTNBC BTD possibility with open access sales could be a boon for us to continue on with everything we wanted to do and more. Would be right away revenue strong.
Then we look at a EUA in Covid Critical and the speed of quick revenue possible there. Have we met our 51 patients that Anvisa allowed us our interim look? I know Nader said he would like to ask for 20 patients but did that ever happen or was that ever even even followed up on? If we have our 51 patients and all we are waiting is 28 days and then a analysis then we are two months away at the very soonest and probably should call it 3 months to be safe. This could be the much needed revenue we hope to see and not to far off.
So when you look at the big picture and see how fast possible revenue can and might happen. We are still sitting pretty good and money issues disappear completely with two indications revenue close and speculation on an accepted BLA for HIV Duel. All indications that will drive the stock price to lift the pressure of financing the company future direction.
As the optimist that I am… I see things looking pretty good. If results for the mTNBC are great enough and we don’t have to file another BTD application we could be golden almost right away with open access. Wouldn’t that be a turn around in our direction forward? Let’s hope for that and let’s hope that if we do file another BTD for mTNBC having those great results that we are still only 2-3 months before revenue.
The future isn’t all that cloudy and if you look hard enough you can see the silver lining in everything. This is my opinion and you can take it for what it is worth… my 2 cents worth. Just a different view from an optimistic view. It looks pretty good to me though… I am not selling a share. I will not vote in favor of a buy out when we are not far from our own revenue. A partnership for Nash I could handle. But seriously a buy out should be off the table.
Let’s assume we took what was our last known burn rate of 6 million a month and slowed down everything to drop it to a reasonable 4 million a month burn. Cutting a third is painful but possible in all businesses. If you have a monthly cost total this year of only 48 million plus payments to Samsung and a bond to pay for Amarex, we get that all done under 90 million. A number we could do right now at our stock price with 200 million shares to finance our needs at our current stock price.
What if we attacked this cost issues with only the top four indications to show immediate to quick revenue this year and let the others brew like we really have been already doing. We have indications just sitting right now and maybe this has been already occurring sitting on the back burner. You have to ask yourself why no Long Haulers… why no Covid severe… why no basket trial results or progress… have we already cut back to control our monthly burn? It seems we have…
Are we now only progressing the top four indications that can provide revenue? Like Covid Critical, mTNBC, HIV duel and a soon to be decided Nash? If you look at the costs of Covid Critical, mTNBC and HIV duel have minimal further investment in trials and applications to seek maybe some immediate revenue and especially a BTD in mTNBC and a EUA in Covid Critical these two ar quick ton provide revenue. HIV Duel is the closest application to complete but being fast tracked it is 8 months away for revenue with a fast tracked process. Is that to long? Not really.
Then comes Nash with the unmet medical need that has never had a drug to treat Nash. It doesn’t look likely that a BTD will help us with immediate open access sales because the FDA will want the same phase 3 results that every other drug has been held to. So we have another trial there before we are at revenue in Nash. Trial length in the phase 2 was 14 weeks but most other phase 3 trials were a year long. This is why a partner is real for Nash. If no partner is willing now do we continue on with Nash or let it simmer on the back burner even with great results. Because when it comes down to results the real ones the FDA will hold us to is the expensive biopsy results that all other trials have been held to that standard. I see IF we have no partner then Nash sits and simmers until we have either revenue cash flow or a partner to fund the phase 3 trial and application process with some upfront monies possible right away.
Other considerations to consider that we have all talked about is the gradual rise in stock price from news that may come from the other 3 indications as they progress to revenue. This allows us more value with our shares we have to finance our monthly burn with. With an immediate BTD on mTNBC we are in a possible open access sales immediately and we know that Trodelvy is taking in a 100 million a quarter and would love to be unseated as the standard of care for mTNBC with a a much better Leronlimab. This mTNBC BTD possibility with open access sales could be a boon for us to continue on with everything we wanted to do and more. Would be right away revenue strong.
Then we look at a EUA in Covid Critical and the speed of quick revenue possible there. Have we met our 51 patients that Anvisa allowed us our interim look? I know Nader said he would like to ask for 20 patients but did that ever happen or was that ever even even followed up on? If we have our 51 patients and all we are waiting is 28 days and then a analysis then we are two months away at the very soonest and probably should call it 3 months to be safe. This could be the much needed revenue we hope to see and not to far off.
So when you look at the big picture and see how fast possible revenue can and might happen. We are still sitting pretty good and money issues disappear completely with two indications revenue close and speculation on an accepted BLA for HIV Duel. All indications that will drive the stock price to lift the pressure of financing the company future direction.
As the optimist that I am… I see things looking pretty good. If results for the mTNBC are great enough and we don’t have to file another BTD application we could be golden almost right away with open access. Wouldn’t that be a turn around in our direction forward? Let’s hope for that and let’s hope that if we do file another BTD for mTNBC having those great results that we are still only 2-3 months before revenue.
The future isn’t all that cloudy and if you look hard enough you can see the silver lining in everything. This is my opinion and you can take it for what it is worth… my 2 cents worth. Just a different view from an optimistic view. It looks pretty good to me though… I am not selling a share. I will not vote in favor of a buy out when we are not far from our own revenue. A partnership for Nash I could handle. But seriously a buy out should be off the table.
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