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Posted On: 12/07/2021 12:21:37 PM
Post# of 154115
The rate at which Omicron is spreading indicates that it will quickly supplant Delta as the dominant variant. Could be in a matter of weeks.
Watching South Africa very closely. The demographics are different (lower average age, higher amount of immunocompromised people, lower vaccination rates.) But, the best indication we have as to how severe this variant is going to be.
If it has meaningful severity (mortality rate of greater than .1%) we will see a spike in hospitalization and deaths.
With that said, we should be seeing these spikes in South Africa beginning now. Perhaps we will. But, if we go another week without seeing it, there is reason for optimism. We arent there yet, but we are getting close to seeing how this plays out.
Watching South Africa very closely. The demographics are different (lower average age, higher amount of immunocompromised people, lower vaccination rates.) But, the best indication we have as to how severe this variant is going to be.
If it has meaningful severity (mortality rate of greater than .1%) we will see a spike in hospitalization and deaths.
With that said, we should be seeing these spikes in South Africa beginning now. Perhaps we will. But, if we go another week without seeing it, there is reason for optimism. We arent there yet, but we are getting close to seeing how this plays out.
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