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Posted On: 10/28/2021 8:55:09 PM
Post# of 72440
It was interesting to me that the criminal hedge funds decided Monday was an opportune time to try to shake some shares loose from weak hands. Did they really think that a 2 week delay on CT results was going to get any IPIX Long with half a brain to sell? After keeping IPIX SP in a very narrow range over the past several months, Monday they compressed SP down as low as .221 with a high of .28 or almost a 6 cent spread with over “2M shares” traded. Realistically they dug a deeper NSS hole to bring SP down to .22 and those damn pesky retail investors bought some more cheap shares prior to upcoming big news. Today was interesting over a battle trying to keep it under .30.
What are the criminals going to do when big news of B-CV19 trial success, Compassionate Use (CU) and funding (government grants and/or BP partnership) is announced and a flood of new retail and momentum investor dollars flood the market? What are the criminals going to do when IPIX Up Lists and is over $5 share at which point institutional money (sector funds, index funds, mutual funds) significantly drives further demand for IPIX shares?
The interesting piece of Monday’s PR is that the more testing that is done, the more Brilacidin looks like it could be the next penicillin discovery as a treatment for a large variety of viruses and disease as a new class of drug.
I think the RBL initial testing started in May 2020 and the PR on 6/11/20 discussed a heavily discounted $35k for the RBL to do advanced testing. I believe testing has been ON-GOING since that point as the RBLs continue to apply for small grant funds to explore how Brilacidin treats various types of viruses and disease. Initially this testing was a pre-cursor to establish the B-CV19 Phase 2 specific protocols. Once the trial was in place additional enveloped viruses were tested at which point IMO the DoD became interested in B as a biodefense weapon. Recent news includes success testing B to treat non-enveloped viruses. The list of viruses and diseases that Brilacidin could treat keeps getting larger per Monday’s PR. I am also guessing that after the trial commenced that the RBLs continued to push the envelope on safety testing to see the limits of maximum dose levels and frequency of treatments. We will know more once dosing levels have been announced with Top Line Results and possibly with CU success announcements.
IMO TLR and CU results will be positive and PRed in November. Funding (via government grants or BP deals) by EOY. The continued B testing should spark some BP interest above and beyond treating CV19 and could be an incentive for a BP to do a B franchise deal. I think the FDA will be forced to approve EUA for Critical CV19 patients based on CU success. This is the opening for B to be advanced through the FDA bureaucracy and get full NDA approval late 2022/early 2023. EUA revenue and BP licensing should be enough for Leo to Up List in Q1 2022 which will force a large amount of NSS covering.
There are a lot of dominos in place but solid TLR and CU results will start the domino chain followed by funding, EUA, NSS initial covering, Up Listing, multiple POC and mini trials throughout 2022 and separately initiation of the B-IBD UC trial. Brilacidin may not be a fully approved NDA drug until 2023 but hundreds of millions in revenue dollars will flow in 2022 via EUA.
My conservative WAG at IPIX SP is:
$2 After TLR and CU results in November (SP swings between $1-$3)
$3-$5 after funding announced by EOY 2021 (SP swings between $2-$7)
$7-$11 leading up to Up Listing in March/April 2022 (Wild swings $5-$12)
$8-$14 after up listing with legit institutional buying gradually increasing
$14-$25 by EOY 2022
$25-$50 2023 after NDA approval and completed B-IBD UC
$80-$120+ Buyout in 2024-2025
Above numbers could be way too conservative. Criminal control of SP is the reason for low estimates until Up Listing occurs. IMO we could easily double all the above if a BP gets aggressive with an inhaler delivery for Mild CV19 and other respiratory virus and disease. Brilacidin as a broad spectrum antiviral could address many different markets and explode revenue. The IBD market is huge. There are many possible options and surprises that Leo could announce that could significantly increase the examples above. Note that the specific guesstimated numbers are meaningless. The important point is that IPIX SP will remain undervalued and compressed until IPIX is Up Listed. SP will start to become reflective of IPIX's true value once the criminal’s hand is forced to start to cover their deep NSS position. A major NSS short squeeze could blow away the above guesstimates late this year and into early 2022. The best exit strategy for those who do not need any short term proceeds is the one that scgmck1 has repeatedly stated that “I will sell when Leo sells”. The next best strategy IMO is to wait until after Up Listing and only sell the minimum amount of shares for needed cash and enjoy the ride upwards with the majority of your position.
What are the criminals going to do when big news of B-CV19 trial success, Compassionate Use (CU) and funding (government grants and/or BP partnership) is announced and a flood of new retail and momentum investor dollars flood the market? What are the criminals going to do when IPIX Up Lists and is over $5 share at which point institutional money (sector funds, index funds, mutual funds) significantly drives further demand for IPIX shares?
The interesting piece of Monday’s PR is that the more testing that is done, the more Brilacidin looks like it could be the next penicillin discovery as a treatment for a large variety of viruses and disease as a new class of drug.
I think the RBL initial testing started in May 2020 and the PR on 6/11/20 discussed a heavily discounted $35k for the RBL to do advanced testing. I believe testing has been ON-GOING since that point as the RBLs continue to apply for small grant funds to explore how Brilacidin treats various types of viruses and disease. Initially this testing was a pre-cursor to establish the B-CV19 Phase 2 specific protocols. Once the trial was in place additional enveloped viruses were tested at which point IMO the DoD became interested in B as a biodefense weapon. Recent news includes success testing B to treat non-enveloped viruses. The list of viruses and diseases that Brilacidin could treat keeps getting larger per Monday’s PR. I am also guessing that after the trial commenced that the RBLs continued to push the envelope on safety testing to see the limits of maximum dose levels and frequency of treatments. We will know more once dosing levels have been announced with Top Line Results and possibly with CU success announcements.
IMO TLR and CU results will be positive and PRed in November. Funding (via government grants or BP deals) by EOY. The continued B testing should spark some BP interest above and beyond treating CV19 and could be an incentive for a BP to do a B franchise deal. I think the FDA will be forced to approve EUA for Critical CV19 patients based on CU success. This is the opening for B to be advanced through the FDA bureaucracy and get full NDA approval late 2022/early 2023. EUA revenue and BP licensing should be enough for Leo to Up List in Q1 2022 which will force a large amount of NSS covering.
There are a lot of dominos in place but solid TLR and CU results will start the domino chain followed by funding, EUA, NSS initial covering, Up Listing, multiple POC and mini trials throughout 2022 and separately initiation of the B-IBD UC trial. Brilacidin may not be a fully approved NDA drug until 2023 but hundreds of millions in revenue dollars will flow in 2022 via EUA.
My conservative WAG at IPIX SP is:
$2 After TLR and CU results in November (SP swings between $1-$3)
$3-$5 after funding announced by EOY 2021 (SP swings between $2-$7)
$7-$11 leading up to Up Listing in March/April 2022 (Wild swings $5-$12)
$8-$14 after up listing with legit institutional buying gradually increasing
$14-$25 by EOY 2022
$25-$50 2023 after NDA approval and completed B-IBD UC
$80-$120+ Buyout in 2024-2025
Above numbers could be way too conservative. Criminal control of SP is the reason for low estimates until Up Listing occurs. IMO we could easily double all the above if a BP gets aggressive with an inhaler delivery for Mild CV19 and other respiratory virus and disease. Brilacidin as a broad spectrum antiviral could address many different markets and explode revenue. The IBD market is huge. There are many possible options and surprises that Leo could announce that could significantly increase the examples above. Note that the specific guesstimated numbers are meaningless. The important point is that IPIX SP will remain undervalued and compressed until IPIX is Up Listed. SP will start to become reflective of IPIX's true value once the criminal’s hand is forced to start to cover their deep NSS position. A major NSS short squeeze could blow away the above guesstimates late this year and into early 2022. The best exit strategy for those who do not need any short term proceeds is the one that scgmck1 has repeatedly stated that “I will sell when Leo sells”. The next best strategy IMO is to wait until after Up Listing and only sell the minimum amount of shares for needed cash and enjoy the ride upwards with the majority of your position.
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