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Posted On: 09/18/2021 5:22:31 AM
Post# of 149186
I posit the following:
-Stock moved lower over time due to lack of revs and increased uncertainty
-Stock moved higher because higher probability of revs and decreased uncertainty
Increased uncertainty (not all inclusive) recapped:
-HIV
-Covid trial start
-Financing
-Philippines revs
-Long hauler Phase 3 trial start
-FDA leadership change
-13D lawsuit / board nominees
Over the past week - Decreased uncertainty (but a few still remain):
-Covid trial started
-Academic institution contract signed
-Creative financing outside of Fife employed (again, ty Gardiner, helps having a 15yr JPM vet with private equity financing and entrepreneurial experience in your team…)
-Philippines revs, both actual and continued potential, returned
-13D lawsuit abandoned, but board nominees remain
Market is ALL about calculating investment risk, deriving an edge via analysis, duration, or some other means, and leveraging it. As your investment risk calculations (assuming you’ve properly modeled all) become more known, and move in a positive direction, stock price will eventually follow. It’s always been that way.
Imo, another leg down will likely occur if the “9D” nominees get voted in - there will be lingering uncertainty of a possibly dilutive takeover of IncellDX and whatever other unknowns the newly elected and unpredictable board will push for.
One key fact has never been uncertain:
-Leronlimab is a miracle molecule with applications ranging from Covid to Oncology to Alzheimer’s to ……….
(edit) Kelly from recent presentation:
“ I just want people to understand that the volume and it's not only in the United States, but the international requests are overwhelming, which is actually a really good sign for our drug long-term. But I can say, the demand is not only for COVID, but for long haulers and cancer, it's just simply overwhelming. We couldn't process all the people asking for our drug at this point.”
The timeline (aka durational edge) to realizing the above LL FULL potential (analytical edge) will inevitably condense and the market will price it in. I personally want to be there when that happens, for my great great great……..grandkids benefit.
#LL4Humanity
-Stock moved lower over time due to lack of revs and increased uncertainty
-Stock moved higher because higher probability of revs and decreased uncertainty
Increased uncertainty (not all inclusive) recapped:
-HIV
-Covid trial start
-Financing
-Philippines revs
-Long hauler Phase 3 trial start
-FDA leadership change
-13D lawsuit / board nominees
Over the past week - Decreased uncertainty (but a few still remain):
-Covid trial started
-Academic institution contract signed
-Creative financing outside of Fife employed (again, ty Gardiner, helps having a 15yr JPM vet with private equity financing and entrepreneurial experience in your team…)
-Philippines revs, both actual and continued potential, returned
-13D lawsuit abandoned, but board nominees remain
Market is ALL about calculating investment risk, deriving an edge via analysis, duration, or some other means, and leveraging it. As your investment risk calculations (assuming you’ve properly modeled all) become more known, and move in a positive direction, stock price will eventually follow. It’s always been that way.
Imo, another leg down will likely occur if the “9D” nominees get voted in - there will be lingering uncertainty of a possibly dilutive takeover of IncellDX and whatever other unknowns the newly elected and unpredictable board will push for.
One key fact has never been uncertain:
-Leronlimab is a miracle molecule with applications ranging from Covid to Oncology to Alzheimer’s to ……….
(edit) Kelly from recent presentation:
“ I just want people to understand that the volume and it's not only in the United States, but the international requests are overwhelming, which is actually a really good sign for our drug long-term. But I can say, the demand is not only for COVID, but for long haulers and cancer, it's just simply overwhelming. We couldn't process all the people asking for our drug at this point.”
The timeline (aka durational edge) to realizing the above LL FULL potential (analytical edge) will inevitably condense and the market will price it in. I personally want to be there when that happens, for my great great great……..grandkids benefit.
#LL4Humanity
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