Even though the new shares offered have restrictions on selling, it is possible, if not likely, that some current investors will sell some of their current holdings to fund a new purchase if the terms of the new offering are favorable.

I picked up some free warrants, as did many Paulson investors in 2018 when they were churning through constant cheap raises. I don't expect this to be anything like those days, but there will be some sort of discount to the current share price.