well said. there is no free lunch in the investment world. sure, someone gets lucky and times it perfectly from time to time, but the odds are against it.

the longs who have stuck it out through good and bad will eventually be rewarded here - but it won't be without a fair amount of pain along the way which the last year has shown us. and i won't feel an ounce of guilt for the riches i have if this runs to $40 or $50.

my gut is that the only way to catch that wave is to stay long. historically, the surges have come without any warning - and they are pretty violent (i.e. moving up in days or weeks (not months) - in other words, if you're trying to time it, the ship leaves the harbor before you can pack your bags. i'm not expecting that to occur until later this year (which is probably why it will likely occur sooner).

here's to hoping that someone in Brazil gets a jab in the arm this weekend