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Posted On: 02/27/2021 5:32:41 PM
Post# of 148903
People have asked what the market for LL would be for Covid over the next year.
Of course if we were using peak numbers it would be a lot higher but these are my calculations. I found this site that gave number of NEW hospitalizations per week for different countries.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizat...o-covid-19
So using these numbers and guesstimating the Philippines and I added in the EU to the total, I came out with 42000 new cases per week or 6000 per day. That is hospitalizations not ICU.
So earlier I had come across a number of 25% of hospitalizations end up in the ICU. So my assumption is that 1/2 the hospitalizations would be Severe or Critical. Meaning 3000 per day right now are candidates for LL.
Taking the 600k vials on hand at the end of last year and the 2.5M available from Samsung for 2021 we would have 3.1M vials available for this year. Enough to treat 1.55M patients. Take that number and divide by 3000/day
and we have enough for 500+ days. Of course there are a lot of variables, new surge, continued decline in hospitalizations, variants(causing more patients), And also add in the rest of the world and those numbers change dramatically.
But we could easily use up the available supply.
Plus we have orders for 2.5M vials for 2022
Now if someone wants to figure out what each country or block(EU) will pay outright and how many doses they would buy then we could figure out revenue.
Of course if we were using peak numbers it would be a lot higher but these are my calculations. I found this site that gave number of NEW hospitalizations per week for different countries.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizat...o-covid-19
So using these numbers and guesstimating the Philippines and I added in the EU to the total, I came out with 42000 new cases per week or 6000 per day. That is hospitalizations not ICU.
So earlier I had come across a number of 25% of hospitalizations end up in the ICU. So my assumption is that 1/2 the hospitalizations would be Severe or Critical. Meaning 3000 per day right now are candidates for LL.
Taking the 600k vials on hand at the end of last year and the 2.5M available from Samsung for 2021 we would have 3.1M vials available for this year. Enough to treat 1.55M patients. Take that number and divide by 3000/day
and we have enough for 500+ days. Of course there are a lot of variables, new surge, continued decline in hospitalizations, variants(causing more patients), And also add in the rest of the world and those numbers change dramatically.
But we could easily use up the available supply.
Plus we have orders for 2.5M vials for 2022
Now if someone wants to figure out what each country or block(EU) will pay outright and how many doses they would buy then we could figure out revenue.
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